Charlie Bilello

Al final sucumbiréis todos



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Pero al MSCI World si que lo ha batido :wink:


A summary of some of the layoffs this year…

  • Twitter: cutting 50% of its workforce (estimated 3,700 jobs).
  • Facebook ($META): cutting 13% of its staff (11,000 jobs), its largest round of layoffs ever.
  • Snap ($SNAP): cutting 20% of its workforce (1,200 jobs).
  • Shopify ($SHOP): cutting 10% of its workforce (1,000 jobs).
  • Netflix ($NFLX): cut 450 jobs in two rounds of layoffs.
  • Microsoft ($MSFT): cutting <1% of workforce (1,000 jobs).
  • Salesforce ($CRM): cutting 1,000 jobs.
  • Robinhood ($HOOD): cutting 31% of its workforce.
  • Tesla ($TSLA): cutting 10% of its salaried workforce.
  • Lyft ($LYFT): cutting 13% of its workforce (700 jobs).
  • Redfin ($RDFN): cutting 13% of its workforce.
  • Coinbase ($COIN): cutting 18% of its workforce (1,100 jobs).
  • Stripe: cutting 14% of its workforce (1,000 jobs).

An addition to these cuts, Amazon ($AMZN) has announced a hiring freeze, Apple ($AAPL) has paused almost all hiring, and Google ($GOOGL) is reducing new hiring by 50%.


On the top of the list of leading indicators pointing to future economic weakness is the yield curve, which is now fully inverted.

The shortest maturity 1-month Treasury bill yield (3.93%) rose above the longest maturity 30-Year Treasury bond yield (3.89%) last week, a relatively rare occurrence.

The last 2 times that happened?

-August – September 2019 (recession started in March 2020)

-August 2006 – August 2007 (recession started in January 2008).

In addition to the yield curve, many other leading indicators (housing, ISM new orders, stocks, etc.) are pointing to a weaker economy.

As a result, the 6-month growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in October and is at levels that have signaled a high probability of recession in the past (2020, 2008, and 2001).


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  • Where will the S&P 500 end 2023?
  • How about the 10-Year Yield?
  • Where is Crude Oil headed?
  • Is Gold or Bitcoin a better investment today?
  • How many more times will the Fed hike rates?
  • Will inflation move back down to its historical average?
  • When will the economy fall into an official recession?

I don’t know the answer to any of these questions.

As Lao Tzu said, “those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who do predict don’t have knowledge.”

In 2023, I predict one thing and one thing only: you will see many more surprises. That is the nature of markets.

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¿Sigue funcionando la inversión de curvas al salir de una época ZIRP?

Esperando a la recesión

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Y más que habrá que esperar

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