Por dejarlo muy resumido, es porque si tienes un yield superior a la media del mercado, puede pasar que tengas un problema de ingresos o lo que sea y tu cotización haya bajado mucho, por lo que le exiges más crecimiento del dividendo que asegura que la empresa va bien, y no simplemente está pasando por un mal momento o es una empresa con problemas.
1 me gusta
Este comentario viene bien respecto al momento actual de mercado y cómo actúa.
“So when LMT, NKE, RTN came on sale, those were purchased along with JNJ, KO etc. … If I had adhered to a strict rule of only purchasing from my top 20 stocks <<<
So did I! One of my son’s first holdings was LMT back in 2009 and it has been his best performer.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again and again and again, that one has to consider the condition of the market. As market conditions change, so must the tactics applied to carry out our plans.
In 2010 and 2011 we could easily shot gun pattern our approach to dividend paying companies while being very strict on valuations and yield. Most of us wouldn’t even consider a yield under 3% and quite a few reading here wouldn’t settle for anything under 4%. If we couldn’t buy near 52 week lows we wouldn’t even consider it.
Condition of the market!
Anyone here stepping out and buying LMT now? Anyone here adhering to the strict 3% yield rule where they no longer will hold or buy any company with less than a 3% rule or not buy unless you can get a double digit discount to fair value? The only way you’re getting those requirements met today is to buy turnaround stories, not accidental high yielder’s.
I can’t speak for others but my tactics to shore up on mainly defense came about 2 years ago as the market headed higher and higher and valuations were no longer our daily companions, or at least not as readily available. The higher valuations go, the more I want to build the companies I know I can hold through another recession. I see people who wouldn’t own KO if you forced them to, and I look at our overweight positions in comfort as I see them barely move to the downside while other holdings drop 2% and 3% on poor market days. I look at that large dividend check come in and know it’s one of the safest ones to count on, and it provides peace of mind. I don’t underestimate to power of KO in down times.
There is no such thing as “strict rules,” there are times when the condition of the market cause me to alter the tactics and when those conditions change, I’ll revert back the other way.
Most of you are now simply concerned with what you have and most of you have holdings you started building 5, 6 or 7 years ago, and they are now well established. You can afford a different outlook than those who are starting today.
Since I accepted the responsibility to help people establish a portfolio and in some cases agreed to manage it for them, what do you suggest they do in today’s market? It’s easy to sit on cash when you are already holding 20, 30 or 40 positions, but for people today, who are experiencing some fear of having missed out and want to get started, that means putting their money to work, not sitting on it, what do you suggest they buy today? Those are the challenges I face and the challenges I love. Putting money to work in what most consider an overvalued market is what I live for.
With the dangers that come with this, when you realize it’s people’s futures at stake, and you consider the current condition of the market, you’d better adhere to a more strict code of portfolio management and to me it all starts with defense. When the market corrects enough to bring most valuations down, the tactics will change for those who are starting now.
When the market is dropping 20 or 30 percent and the people you’ve helped are facing fear, you’d better have them in companies they are sure aren’t going bankrupt. That’s the only way to keep them from panicking.
When I asked is KO going broke? Is JNJ going broke? Is PG going broke? And as I went down the list and they recognized every name, they said no and then I asked them, what are you worried about? The market goes up and down, always has, always will, so be sure you own companies for when the price drops you can have a level of confidence it’s just temporary. Once you get them through that, the rest is easy.”
Ha subido la cartera actualizada de su hijo (el proyecto 3 millones):
Here is the portfolio update for my son as of premarket on 9/11. He is 32 years old so this could be a guideline for other young investors.
A full position is 2.3% … a 3/4 sized position is 1.7% … a 1/2 sized position is 1.1% … a 1/4 sized position is 0.6%. An * represents a core position.
I have his portfolio broken down into 3 sectors using the Morningstar model. I prefer a 60-20-20 ratio for him at this time.
His current ratio is: Defensive 57.7% - Cyclical 19.4% - Sensitive - 20.3%
Defensive:
Staples … 36.8%
Utilities … 10.8% (includes telecom)
Healthcare … 10.1%
Total … 57.7%
Cyclical:
Discretionary … 11.9%
Financials … 2.6%
REIT’s … 4.9%
Total … 19.4%
Sensitive:
Industrials … 14.5%
Energy … 4.3%
Technology … 1.5%
Total … 20.3%
HOLDINGS …
The following are considered overweight positions:
*JNJ … 3.7%
LMT … 3.7%
MCD … 3.6%
*PM … 3.5%
*D … 3.1%
MO … 3.1%
*GIS … 2.8%
SYY … 2.8%
*KO … 2.7%
*KHC … 2.7%
*ADP … 2.6%
The following are considered in full position range:
*O … 2.5%
*VZ … 2.5%
*PEP … 2.4%
*SO … 2.4%
HCN … 2.3%
*CL … 2.2%
*PG … 2.2%
CVX … 2.2%
*KMB … 2.1%
The following are considered in the 3/4 sized position range:
AMGN … 1.8%
UL … 1.6%
ABT … 1.5%
*MMM … 1.5%
*VFC … 1.5%
*T … 1.5%
The following are considered in the 1/2 sized position range:
DG … 1.4%
DUK … 1.4%
MKC … 1.4%
NSC … 1.4%
MA … 1.3%
SBUX … 1.3%
V … 1.3%
CAT … 1.2%
LOW … 1.2%
NKE … 1.2%
TAP … 1.2%
UNP … 1.2%
*XOM … 1.2%
CAH … 1.1%
CBRL … 1.1%
COST … 1.1%
GPC … 1.1%
HRL … 1.1%
SNA … 1.1%
BDX … 1.0%
CVS … 1.0%
IBM … 1.0%
SWK … 1.0%
TGT … 1.0%
DEO … 0.9%
KMI … 0.9%
The following are considered in the 1/4 sized position range:
DE … 0.9%
HD … 0.8%
Chowder deja de comentar públicamente:
Just so you know, PM is the only way to reach me going forward, I’m not commenting publicly anymore. With as many portfolios as I manage, those folks need personal one on one answers that don’t get lost in the mainstream.
Some of those I help were getting confused, not knowing if a comment was directed at them or not, confused by conflicting views by people with different objectives, and I think it’s in their best interest that I go private so there isn’t any misunderstanding on their part.
I prefer to answer one on one direct going forward, with those who I manage money for having priority. However, I don’t mind helping others but it won’t be publicly, I’m more than happy to do it via PM but I may not be able to respond immediately.
These discussions may have benefited a lot of you folks but I’m not learning anything from them, I’m not getting any intellectual stimulation from them, and they have simply taken up too much of my time, time that needed to be spent elsewhere.
The emails I sent out this morning to various people I help, were individually designed for their specific portfolio, to their specific needs and were very detailed, almost article length, and to be honest, much more intellectually stimulating, especially the ones dealing with the psychology of the market. This is where my focus needs to be.
It takes a lot of my time to keep up with various portfolios that I manage and I have to set priorities. Others have time to socialize and use up space, I don’t. I already spent 3 hours this morning going over portfolio adjustments while others only have themselves to monitor. I have real money at risk that belongs to other people and that’s where my time needs to be spent. I don’t have time to read and correspond with over 100 comments that I see are now here. I now understand what richjoy was talking about as to time management. … Ha!
Beer summits? I got time for that. PM’s? I’ll do that too but I may not respond immediately. Thanks for your loyal readership.
And I will be looking into whether I add more GIS or not to already over-sized position.
Perfectamente comprensible
Cuando se lleva muchos años en los foros al final se pierde fuelle para seguir contando lo mismo que llevas contando los ultimos 10 o 20 años. Si ademas no lo estas monetizando pues te dedicas a lo tuyo. Es ley de vida
Por eso los nuevos escriben mucho y otros no tanto
1 me gusta
Parece que se va pero no del todo 
“I haven’t left SA. I’m just not going to post publicly like I have. If people want help, they can contact me via PM. It’s the best way I know how to tune out the noise. There are those who want help, others that want attention. I don’t have time for both.
Those who have asked for help via PM, I have taken the time to do so, and it doesn’t get lost in the mainstream.
If I see an article on portfolio management or strategy, and I think it’s worth commenting on, I will. Don’t expect to see me in articles on specific companies as to which is the better buy or is the dividend safe, or this is why I am buying this. I prefer to get that from professionals.”
Ayer ya comentó y hoy no ha podido evitar echar la bulla a alguien. Cómo lo conocemos, jajaja:
@MaxMillie … >>> Two weeks ago, I bought 10 shares of NEE at $149. Today, it was $146. So, if I had waited today, it would be on sale for me. <<<
Okay, you spent $1,490 to get 10 shares of NEE at $149. The same $1,490 would have purchased … wait for it … 10 shares of NEE at $146.
What difference does it make? It’s still 10 shares. And what difference is it going to make 20 years from now that you paid $3 more for 10 shares when you were only going to get 10 shares at the lower price.
This is what I have trying to pound home for people starting out with small positions. It doesn’t matter!
You aren’t to go through life with 10 shares of NEE. You are going to buy more and you can bet a dollar to a nickle that prices will be higher several years from now. If we get a correction, it’s a bonus. If not, you’re in, you have a baseline to work with.
Most of this nickle and dime-ing on valuations is crap unless we’re talking larger sums of money.
En los últimos dos días cuatro comentarios en un articulo de Visa (V) y otos tantos en otro de Dominon Energy (D). No está nada mal para haberse retirado
D is my favorite utility and I own quite a few.
D has one of the better regulator friendly markets to deal with and this is important when it comes to rate increase and mergers. One of the reasons regulators are so friendly with D is because they do try to keep down rates but more importantly, when disasters hit like Hurricane Sandy did a couple of years ago and an earthquake came through the VA area, it was D that had their customers fully restored before any other utility. They received the highest response ratings. During Sandy, some utilities went weeks before full restoration and ended up paying fines.
D is now becoming more of a growth company, relatively speaking as far as utilities go, with their LNG facility and purchase of a pipeline system. Their acquisition of STR (which I benefited from, heh, heh) has opened up a whole new growth aspect for D and all of this combined is why the CEO is recommending to the board that D raise the dividend 10% per year for the next few years. This is a dividend growth investors dream! … Safety, reliability, a little growth, double digit dividend increases … what’s not to like? The price? Get over it, this isn’t a buy low, sell high investment, this is buy and hold, collect the money and pass on to your heirs investment. And if you aren’t going to sell to lock in capital gains, what difference does a few dollars in the price make? This is an income machine! Ask anyone besides me that has owned it 20 years or more and they will tell you the same thing. It’s a keeper!
Every portfolio I manage has to start with D or find someone else to help you manage your money. … Ha
Gracias por la info Ruindog.
Llevo ya un tiempo pensando entrar en D ( y en ENB, MDT, WFC, GE…). Creo que ya he posteado el link un par de veces, pero por si alguien no lo ha visto:
Okay here’s the deal. When I started this venture it was my intent to help the young people get started with investing, but the more I ran my mouth the more other people showed up and often times the message I was trying to present would get lost in the comment stream as things get pretty much distracted when so many people are following, but I had no idea how many new people were out there following. So, I thought most people are set, they all have their own opinions it was time for me to devote my time to other aspects of the market.
I’m not a humble man and anyone from SA who has met me in person, might even tell you I am borderline arrogant. It’s true, I am and I don’t apologize for it, but I truly was humbled by the number of PM’s I have received from young folks who never commented in the community but followed daily. It blew me away, made me feel a little guilty in fact. … Ha!
The biggest distraction for me are these articles and comments on which is better, PG or CL, T or VZ, V or MA, etc. I hate the articles of here is why I bought so and so even more. … Ha!
It’s nothing to pick a company … NOTHING!
What is difficult, and what is important, is how you MANAGE the position once you own it and how you manage your portfolio. How do you manage your fears, your uncertainties, and your overconfidence and greed.
How do you learn to work with the uncertainty of the market? How do you prepare? How do you achieve your goals when the market has turned against you? You have several options on what to buy but only have money for one, what is the process you use to make the right decision for you? How do you handle losses, how do you know when to average up or down?
All of these things determine your level of success or failure, not the companies you pick. The Wall Street monkey can do that. It’s how you manage them once you own them and that’s what I want to share with young folks and newbies, you need that knowledge in order to invest with confidence and peace of mind.
So, give me some time to put my thoughts together and I will on occasion write a blog or two, maybe more, where we discuss the content of that blog only. No chit chat, no stock ideas, all bidness as they like to say round these parts, and I’ll use my son’s portfolio as an example.
The Psychology of The Market is coming to a theater near you. Embrace it! … Ha!
No sé si ya puse esto por aquí, pero pongo las utilities americanas que ha elegido y por qué. Muy importante en su decisión la relación con el regulador de la compañía:
When I looked into utilities, I didn’t focus on the yield, or a lot of the other data people screen for, I wanted to set up a utility portfolio based on geographical locations. I wanted one in the NE, one in the mid-Atlantic, one in the SE, one in the mid-central, one in the SW and one on the south and north ends of the west coast. I wanted access to all of those utility consumer dollars across the country. Then I looked for what I thought were the best of breed in each of those geographical areas.
I wasn’t looking for the highest yields, the most growth, the best idea of beating the market, I was looking for area coverage and who best qualified. I ended up with D, SO, WEC, XEL, SRE, AVA and I couldn’t find an acceptable NE utility so I bought another SE one, NEE. … Heh, heh. I did end up buying LNT as well because WEC didn’t have enough coverage in the mid-central region.
To me, it was all about accessing the consumer dollar in that industry across the country.
Sobre promediar y manejar la posición. SCG es una utility en problemas que decidió comprar pero luego se anunció un riesgo que hacía que la empresa ya no le interesara y la vendiera en las carteras que la llevaba.
>>> I doubled down on SCG. I am holding. <<<
If someone wants to play the turn around game with SCG, I see nothing wrong with that even though I’m not willing to.
What does interest me though is the comment, I doubled down. Doubled down on what? A 1/4 sized position? A 1/2 sized position? Was it already a full position and you doubled down on it?
Where you sit position size-wise determines whether your double down was a good move or not. If you doubled down on a 1/4 sized position, I get it. That’s the time to do it if you are going to do it. You still have minimized the damage to your portfolio in the event it doesn’t work out.
If you doubled down on a 1/2 sized position or on a full position, good portfolio management practices suggest you never throw good money after bad. The move might work but it’s a low probability of success play and we are better off usually sticking with high probability plays.
Again, I’m not saying the move should not have been done. If your portfolio allows for a couple of plays like this then it’s in the game, but once in the game it’s important to manage it where you still minimize the damage it can do and then add to it when probability goes in your favor.
–
Acerca de la posición máxima de un sector y de las empresas core. Tras resultados positivos de ABT en un dispositivo médico que sí que pueden hacer mover la cotización hacia arriba (me suena que ha sido esto).
>>> any thoughts on a limit you’d put on the healthcare sector? <<<
This is good! This is the type of work I want to do.
The main reason I determine if a company is going to be a Core holding or not is because there is no limit for a Core holding.
Look at Buffett’s holdings! He has a hand full of companies that take up about 80% of his portfolio. He may not use the term Core for them, but the way he manages them is how I look at what a Core holding is.
If ABT is a Core holding, then you continue to add on good news and don’t worry about position size. You should want more of your better ideas, not limit them. The key is to not overload them with each purchase, make small increments as you build and you minimize any downside damage while benefiting from all of the upside.
ABT is not a Core holding in my son’s portfolio but it is in another portfolio and it’s overweight in that portfolio as well. I might add a few more shares today to that portfolio if ABT is showing strong upside pricing about an hour into the trading session. That portfolio belongs to a person just a couple of years from retirement.
Chowder ha escrito hoy un post, y también comentarios a su propio artículo. En uno de ellos da su recomendación a cómo empezar a crear portfolio . Puede verse aquí .
Esta es mi frase favorita de Chowder…
“So again, when investing small (keep this in mind) and having a long time frame to work with, no need for dry powder. Compounding is more powerful than anything dry powder can accomplish”
Me ha gustado mucho este párrafo:
“We aren’t the hero’s we think we are when prices head higher, and we aren’t the failures we think we are when prices head lower. We have no control over price. So getting over myself as to thinking I was a great stock picker was the first thing I had to do to get my mind right.Bill Belichick says, “Do Your Job.” … My job is to buy good companies that share company profits with us and build them up over time. That’s my job! If I do my asset allocations properly, and we’ll get into that, and I stay focused on buying quality and ignoring the herd who think everything they buy is going up, then the market will reward us in time. All we have to do is build out and up and stay focused on the income.Many people have listed their mistakes for others to learn from, and if young folks pay attention to what I’m trying to convey, those mistakes won’t be made. Most mistakes manifest around people worrying about price fluctuations. Fuh-gedda-bout-it. Buy quality, build slow, add to winners, be patient with losers before tossing more money after them, build out and then up, and stop worrying about trimming shares. If you’re going to build, BUILD!”
Sobre cómo sigue la construcción de la cartera de su hijo y los próximos movimientos:
"There is always an objective, always a mission, and it changes from year to year. I was done with building out my son’s portfolio and this year the focus was on building up.
The objective, the mission for 2017 was to bring all 1/4 sized positions up to 1/2 size. That mission has finally been accomplished.I had stated earlier this year that 2018 was going to be the year of the Core, where I build all of his Core holdings to full position. I want these companies, companies I have higher conviction with, to be twice as large as other companies, at a minimum. Therefore I will be ignoring valuations and when it comes time to add, I’ll add one buy at a time. The next purchase is due to be made the first of next month.
At the present time, these are his Core holdings and their position status.
Overweight positions:JNJ … PM … D … GIS … KO … KHC … ADP
The following companies are Full positions:O … VZ … PEP … SO … CL … PG … KMB
The objective has already been achieved with those companies.
Here are the companies that need work.3/4 sized positions:MMM … VFC … T
1/2 sized positions:XOM
I will build those up to full positions before I look at any other companies in his portfolio unless some compelling situation pops up.I have a very sophisticated and complex strategy for adding to these companies above. I am buying the highest yield first. … Ha!So T is the next purchase and then I’ll move on to XOM.Simplicity at its best."
Para hacernos una idea de lo que considera 1 posición o 1/2 en función de la edad u objetivos alcanzados.
"With younger folks a full position might be $4k and for older folks $40k. If a young person sees their position grow to $12k it’s a triple sized position but still small in relation to where it will end up at some point years from now. Do you trim at $315 only to buy more at $615 years from now? I don’t think so. A young person just needs to stop adding and build their other positions to catch up to LMT and up to where at some point a $12k position is actually a 1/2 sized position instead of being overweight.
As portfolio values rise, the amount that represents a full position rises. At one point $2k was a full position for my son and after everything was built to those levels, we raised it to $3k and now sits at $4k. In 2018 we are raising the full position status to $6k and now LMT isn’t as overweight as it once was.
We continue to build up where older folks may need to protect what they already have.Older folks who don’t have the benefit of time may need to trim back and take profits. I get that. I’ve done that. I just don’t want to see young folks trimming shares they will only have to repurchase later and probably at much higher prices."
COMO CONSTRUIR UNA CARTERA:
"Young people, here is how I manage my son’s portfolio and the portfolio of other young folks that have asked for help. I try to come up with a balance between growth and income. The older folks are more income oriented in how I set up their portfolios.
I break the portfolios down into 3 sectors, using the Morningstar model. The sectors are defined as Defensive, Sensitive and Cyclical. I want 50% of the portfolio in the Defensive sector and 25% each in Sensitive and Cyclical. The model calls for 50-25-25.Defensive positions include consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.Sensitive (to the economy) positions include industrial, energy and technology.Cyclical positions include consumer discretionary, financial’s and REIT’s.
Most of my son’s Core holdings are Defensive. The goal is to have all Core and Defensive holdings at a full position or more, other positions just a 1/2 sized position. These 1/2 sized positions have to grow into full positions hence the term growth. … Ha!When investing small amounts of money as you build your positions, you don’t know where price performance is going to come from. It was unexpected that CAT and DE would perform as well as they have the past year and a half, but then who expected DIS or SCG to show negative returns over the same time frame. So I don’t try to guess, I only try to insure that all positions are properly sized so that when that surprising price explosion that CAT and DE have provided, it helps impact performance and makes up for those who haven’t performed as well.I will place V or MA in a young folks portfolio for growth, but I recommend against it in an older folks portfolio because it lacks income.
So know your goals.Now here comes the important part, straighten up!Asset allocation is an investment strategy that aims to balance risk and reward by apportioning a portfolio’s assets according to an individual’s goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon.I try to manage an equity portfolio based on the asset allocation concept among the equities to be owned. I look at how I want a portfolio established, where I want our income replacement to come from. When I consider a risk vs reward ratio, while trying to be reasonably conservative, I look to set up the portfolio with a sector weighting of Defensive 50%, Sensitive 25% and Cyclical 25%. (More defensive for older folks!)Where I see articles and comments asking, who should I buy next, SBUX, BDX or V, what we have is people trying to predict who is going to perform better in the near future and that is not a question I ask myself in managing a portfolio. I look at my sector allocations to see who is lacking the proper weightings, and if it’s discretionary, I buy SBUX. If I can use a little more defense, I buy BDX. If I can use some financial exposure it’s V. I’m not chasing results, I’m focusing on proper sector allocations and will patiently wait for the market to come to me since I don’t know where the best returns are coming from next year or the year after.
Thus, I focus on companies and sectors being properly sized and get paid to wait via the dividend stream.If cash is available, and I can use all 3 then I’d buy all 3 but in talking about folks like my son, who can only buy one company at a time, I have to make choices.If for some reason I needed to upgrade all 3 sectors and only had the cash to make one purchase, I’d go with defense first and add to BDX as long as it was reasonably valued. If BDX had a valuation so high I was unwilling to pay it, then I would look to see who had the best forward guidance on earnings. This company, if not purchased now, might see its valuations rise due to good performance and I’d rather be on board when it does. Most people would select the best valued company and the definition of best value meaning best discount. Best discount under current market conditions means company performance is lacking. If a company is under-performing, it’s price isn’t going anywhere soon and I can come back to this later, so I do not necessarily jump on what appears to be the best value available, as price does not determine future value of a company and I’m looking forward.Always an objective, always a mission, stick with the plan."
La cartera de su hijo. (publicada 12 sept). Ya se puso antes, pero lo vuelvo a pegar para poder seguir bien la explicación de cómo construir cartera (según Chowder). Recordad, actualmente (para su hijo) considera posición completa 4K (y va a aumentar a 6K).
Defensive:Staples … 36.8%
Utilities … 10.8% (includes telecom)
Healthcare … 10.1%
Total … 57.7%
Cyclical:Discretionary … 11.9%
Financials … 2.6%
REIT’s … 4.9%
Total … 19.4%
Sensitive:Industrials … 14.5%
Energy … 4.3%
Technology … 1.5%
Total … 20.3%
HOLDINGS …The following are considered overweight positions:
*JNJ … 3.7%
LMT … 3.7%
MCD … 3.6%
*PM … 3.5%
*D … 3.1%
MO … 3.1%
*GIS … 2.8%
SYY … 2.8%
*KO … 2.7%
*KHC … 2.7%
*ADP … 2.6%
The following are considered in full position range:
*O … 2.5%
*VZ … 2.5%
*PEP … 2.4%
*SO … 2.4%
HCN … 2.3%
*CL … 2.2%
*PG … 2.2%
CVX … 2.2%
*KMB … 2.1%
The following are considered in the 3/4 sized position range:
AMGN … 1.8%
UL … 1.6%
ABT … 1.5%
*MMM … 1.5%
*VFC … 1.5%
*T … 1.5%
The following are considered in the 1/2 sized position range:
DG … 1.4%
DUK … 1.4%
MKC … 1.4%
NSC … 1.4%
MA … 1.3%
SBUX … 1.3%
V … 1.3%
CAT … 1.2%
LOW … 1.2%
NKE … 1.2%
TAP … 1.2%
UNP … 1.2%
*XOM … 1.2%
CAH … 1.1%
CBRL … 1.1%
COST … 1.1%
GPC … 1.1%
HRL … 1.1%
SNA … 1.1%
BDX … 1.0%
CVS … 1.0%
IBM … 1.0%
SWK … 1.0%
TGT … 1.0%
DEO … 0.9%
KMI … 0.9%
The following are considered in the 1/4 sized position range:
DE … 0.9%
HD … 0.8%
CDK … 0.5% (spinoff from ADP)
HYH … 0.1% (spin off from KMB)
3 libros recomendados:
- Dividends Still Don’t Lie by Kelley Wright.
- The Ultimate Dividend Playbook by Josh Peters (Libro del que ya nos habló Vash en su hilo de presentación).
- The Introduction and first 4 chapters of The Single Best Investment are a must annual review in my opinion. People have a tendency to wander off the reservation and that review should help to re-focus