David van Knapp (DVK)

Un pequeño detalle. Para poder poner 20 en la fórmula creo que el periodo de referencia es de 21 años. Así cuentas 20 periodos de crecimiento (pues el primero por el que empiezas no tiene ningún crecimiento).

De todas formas el resultado final no debe variar mucho con respecto a cómo lo haces tú, salvo que entre el año -21 y el -20 haya habido un incremento o un recorte muy espectacular.

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Ambos tenéis razón.
Vash: como dije, he tomado los datos del citado excel. Lo he comprobado con la web de la compañía y los datos están mal. Trataré de notificárselo al autor del excel.
Por lo visto, de 1996 a 2004 tuvo el dividendo congelado en 0,80 $
La verdad es que sonaba demasiado bonito para ser cierto. Aparte de poco sostenible en el futuro.

Gracias por señalarme los errores.


Análisis de NFG


Acerca de las ventas que ha hecho (BA, VTR).

“I feel like I’m developing a whole new category of stocks, “Stocks that Piss Me Off.” It’s a reason to sell. In the past 3 months, I’ve sold two stocks that fell into that category: BA and VTR. I felt better as soon as I let each one go.
In fact, it’s given me an idea for an article, something like “Kondo-izing Your Portfolio.” I’ve never read anything by Marie Kondo, but I’ve read about her, and her idea for getting rid of stuff that doesn’t spark joy for you (even if it once did). Throw it out.
So I’ve Kondo-ized my portfolio a little by tossing BA and VTR.
When my former company was taken over by a much larger company, we all learned a lot about corporate cultures. In fact, studying the subject became an avocation of mine for a couple of years. The more I read about BA, the more I realized what a deep-seated cultural problem they have. It led inevitably to the 737 MAX problems, and I’ll bet there are other problems lurking in various products and projects. Scary thought.
It can take years to change a company culture. Once I came to those realizations, it was easy to let BA go. In fact, it became imperative. I wish them luck, but that’s the kind of anti-SWAN stock I don’t want to own.


Análisis de CVX


“Your comment also gives me my weekly chance to bring up the difference between stock returns and investor returns.
Stock returns are what you see on a chart or in the newspaper. Investor returns add your own behavior to the equation.
The important behavior of interest here, of course, is dividend reinvestment. I don’t know if I’ll do an article on it this year, but dividend reinvestment can significantly increase one’s investor returns over the returns of the stocks they hold. That’s because (of course) the reinvested dividends buy more shares, which introduces a multiplier effect on the basic returns of the stocks themselves.
The interesting thing with many growth stocks is, their basic returns are the only returns available, because there are no dividends to reinvest (or very little). Meanwhile, the utility with a 4% yield means you have a built-in 4% gain just through reinvesting them. The stock’s own returns then stack on top.
That’s a big head start, and it often closes the gap between lil’ ol’ utilities and big strong growth companies. Not all the time, but some of the time. It’s way cool when it happens.


DTA has engaged with a young friend of the owner – Liz – to interview some of their writers about investing. She’s 31 and starting literally from ground zero. She wants to learn about investing.She interviewed me a couple weeks ago, the tape has been edited, and it’s been posted on You Tube. Liz wrote a short article explaining what’s going on, and the video is embedded in her article.I would love for anyone to look at the video, or skim and it, and give feedback about anything: Content, production, video and audio quality, questions and answers, and anything else you think of. Criticize! We want to learn how to do these better.This is kind of an experiment, part of DTA trying to broaden its audience to include younger people. Here’s the link:


Análisis de UNM


Reinversión de dividendos en… ¡TXN!


“To me, this feels like the dot-com bubble burst and the financial/housing collapse, which was also a bubble bursting. Each of those, in retrospect, was also accompanied by a recession.
This time, we may again have something of a bubble bursting, and it’s hard to see how an economic slowdown isn’t inevitable (indeed already underway). The market seems to be pricing in a recession.
If your time horizon is <1-3 years, it could be truly disastrous. If you can widen your timeframe out to 3-5 years+, it’s not so bad, just hard to go through.


El artículo que saca el viernes en DTA será muy interesante:

“I’m working on my DGSM article for DTA that will be out Friday. This month will be a special edition on the impact of the crash on blue chip DG stocks. I’m especially looking at credit ratings, SSD score changes, yield changes, and valuations. Gonna do about 10 of the most widely held DG stocks.
Overall, it’s hard to imagine that DG rates won’t fall. There’s simply less money circulating in the economy, so companies will have less to distribute. The impact will be uneven, though. The “contactless” business models will be far less affected than others.


Uff, que ganas de echarle un vistazo. Con tanta opción algo de orientación no viene mal

@luisg, puedes indicar enlace cuando lo saque? Es de libre acceso?

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Son los que cuelga @ruindog de Daily Trade Alert. Libre acceso.

El viernes lo tenéis aquí.


¿Libro para 2021?
Tengo el de 2008, difícil de leer por letra pequeña y mala maquetación. Esperemos ahora mejore.

“Working on plans for a new book! Top 25 (or so) for 2021. Just in the early stages of considering design issues, topical coverage, picking stocks, grading them, setting up a new website, and a ton of things I forgot about since 2014.
Working with the folks at DTA, they have more technical expertise than I ever had, plus a design consultant, so things might look prettier than ever. Hoping to work with both Chuck Carnevale and Brian Bollinger on content-sharing and cross-promotion. Consulted a little with Mike Nadel. Never started this early in the year before. Gotta do it without cutting in on the short golf season here in WNY.”

“New book. Maybe 200+ pages.”


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Al igual que SeeksQuality, consejo a alguien que cedió al pánico y vendió en el peor momento.

"If you’re investing in stocks, I strongly suggest that you write down what the reasons are that you would ever sell.

Do it when you are calm and thinking clearly. Make a little project out of it, spread it over a few days, when you have a thought, jot it down. Think about why you sold this time and whether, in retrospect, that was a good reason. So you can also write down reasons NOT to sell.

After maybe 5 days of jotting stuff down, clean it up into a nice, readable list of reasons to sell. Take it to heart, and hang it or store it some place where you see it all the time or have easy access to it.

Then next time, refer to the list of reasons, rather than the stock market, to decide whether to sell anything. You may find that, after thinking it through clearly, that a price drop is NOT ON your list of reasons to sell. Promise yourself not to sell in the future for a reason that’s not on your list.

A rock-solid portfolio should not tempt you to sell when it’s going through a bad patch in the market.

That will become a core part of your investing business plan. Another part, which you can work on later, is reasons to buy (or not buy). Understand how you get to a rock-solid portfolio by articulating what kind of stocks are in it.

Rock solid" isn’t only a financial concept, it’s a psychological concept. If you own a stock that you get tempted to sell because its price drops, then it’s not"rock solid" to you. Don’t listen to everyone else, find the ones that are rock-solid to YOU.”


BMY ya está en mi cartera, la considero adecuada para tiempos del coronavirus, además buena RPD, bien cubierto por un FCF alto, algo de deuda por la adquisición de Celgene, pero nada preocupante.
Otra cosa, a un familiar con embolia pulmonar, le han cambiado el tratamiento de Sintron, por Eliquis, que es de BMY, y menudo cambio, lo ha notado una barbaridad.