Así es. Le aprecio, pero hace años que decidí que si una persona está decidida a estamparse contra un muro, lo más que puedo recomendarle es que contemple la posibilidad de ponerse un casco.
Espero que la experiencia le vaya lo mejor posible.
Domingo Friki, allá vamos.
Me enseñó unas velas japonesas que “si van para arriba, lo normal es que vayan para arriba”; y si este indicador (que no sabía que era RSI) pasa de esta línea, “se compra o se vende”. Y ya.
Con todo esto, una media de unos 200€ al día.
Ahí queda claro que por bajas que sean las comisiones, el hecho de que se cobren año tras año reducen significativamente la rentabilidad de la inversión.
Parece que sale más a cuenta pagar sólo 1 vez la comisión de compra y que algunas empresas te vayan mal que no pagar año tras año comisión sobre el total de lo invertido.
Saludos desde éste paraíso que es la playa de Puerto de Alcudia.
You shouldn’t buy a stock and then stare at its price every day or every month waiting for it to go up. Instead, once you make an investment, you should direct your future energies to acquiring new capital and performing research for the next investment selection that you will make.
Meanwhile, your prior investments should be permitted the time to accumulate and reinvest dividends and the company should be given the time to grow profits which will yield to capital appreciation over time. Fixation on the price of a particular stock (especially over a period of three years or less) is not the path to wealth.
When it comes to barriers to entry associated with mid-cap and the smaller of the large-cap stocks, few if any companies enjoy the competitive advantage possessed by Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE:EW). The company operates in the incredibly regulated field of aortic valve replacements and surgical heart valve therapy.
One of its well-established and fast-growing products is the Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR), and the companies’ Sapien 3 valves exhibit the lowest rate of death, stroke, or rehospitalization among its users. The Sapien 3 is a valve made out of cow tissue that is attached to a balloon-expandable, cobalt-chromium frame for support.
That is why the company has been able to grow earnings per share at a rate of 21% annualized since 2009. Earnings per share have climbed from $0.40 per share in 2003 to $5.35 in 2019 for a 17.6% compounded growth rate. In the pharmaceutical sector, that type of growth can be found when products with high barriers to entry meet the legal standard of care and then an entrenched insurance/legal bias comes to exist in favor of their sustained use, enabling the firm to hike the price of its devices and generate sustainable shareholder returns.
Even better, the company has a strong balance sheet, with $900 million in cash, $600 million in debt, against a profit engine of over $1 billion. The key is getting the price right for making your initial purchase. It only comes around several times per decade, but any time this firm can be purchased at a P/E ratio of under 20, the odds are heavily in your favor for securing 10% or greater long-term returns.
Tirando de hemeroteca se encuentra uno con artículos como éste de Octubre del 2014. No siempre se acierta
I feel exactly the same way about General Electric right now at $24 per share. It gives you a 3.63% starting dividend yield if you buy today, and seems like to grow the payout by 8-11% in the years ahead. My personal estimates for General Electric’s dividend going forward are something like this:
General Electric dividend=
$0.88 per share in 2014.
$1.00 per share in 2015.
$1.12 per share in 2016.
$1.24 per share in 2017.
$1.40 per share in 2018.
$1.56 per share in 2019.
$1.80 per share in 2020.
$2.00 per share in 2021.
This isn’t the same company that it was in 2007—that’s lazy thinking to equate the 2007 General Electric with the 2014 General Electric. The backlog of work is almost twice as big. The troublesome real estate loan portfolio is gone. Of the remaining finance units, there is 75% more capitalization than existed in 2007. With the Alstom deal, General Electric remains on pace to make 70% of its profits “industrial related” rather than “financial servicing related.” The fact that you can initiate a position at 3.6% today is a gift; and the rewards will become more apparent in the coming years, especially for those that reinvest their dividends while the price of the stock is in the $20s and low $30s.
Cinco años más tarde aconseja mantenerse alejado de compañías con credit rating BBB- como KHC
aunque no entiendo porque menciona a GE (BBB+)
It is crazy to think that half of fund offerings for high-yield debt. If there are downgrades in rapid succession for any BBB-rated companies, there could be a massive sell-off as a required matter of course. If someone wants to be savvy in this market, wait for something like General Electric or Kraft-Heinz to see their debt downgraded to junk status (if that happens), and then you can buy low while forced selling occurs. But otherwise, I would stay out because there are strong institutional considerations that tie the hands of bond managers and half of their assets are now dedicated to debt that is one downgrade away from forced selling. It is an area where modest declines could produce outsized investment harms.
I would also argue that finding a way to turn capital into a sustainable income stream is a much more satisfying way to engage with life. If you turned $125,000 in Florida lottery winnings into a 7.33% U.S. government bond, you would be receiving $4,581 payable to you every six months. You could take that money and spend it however you want with the satisfaction that six months later you will receive yet another payment for $4,581. Your consumption shouldn’t result in any guilt because the capital pile will remain for your use even after the consumption.
On the other hand, if you go out and enjoy a couple vacations and buy a nice car and make other expenditures in depreciating personal property, the clock is ticking. If you don’t find a way to replace the capital that you expended, you better enjoy what you just purchased because there will not be more for you in the future unless you come up with a new way to get your hands on more capital. That will require labor and savvy, which makes things a lot harder for yourself than just wielding pre-existing funds intelligently.
We are fortunate that we have options available to us where only modest sacrifices can result in great abundance.
Sigo a McAleenan hace tiempo y me siento muy identificado con su estrategia. Estoy suscrito al sitio web que tiene de pago y he tenido la paciencia de ir anotando cada acción que según él está en compra y el precio al que lo compra (calculándolo más o menos por la fecha en la que escribe cada artículo) y he hecho una lista en Yahoo Finance (poniendo que compra una acción de cada empresa).
Los datos que me salen son bestiales: la primera compra que anoté fue en mayo de 2018, Shake Shack inc. a 40$ está ahora a 53$ (+46,6%). De 47 empresas saca un 18,8% sin contar dividendos, pero por supuesto la fiabilidad 100% no existe y tiene 8 en negativo… Está claro que está en pleno mercado alcista y que hay que ver esto a 10, 20 o más años vista, pero para llevar año y medio no lo hace nada mal.
Si a esa lista le añadiéramos todas las empresas de las que habla en la web pública desde el principio, estoy convencido que a más tiempo aún le saldrá mejor. Que tiene fallos, por supuesto, por eso incide en diversificar, pero que trata las mejores empresas del mundo es un hecho y que mejor para invertir que hacerlo en lo mejor de lo mejor.
Con GE yo no lo tengo muy claro, sigue siendo un gigante pero veo difícil calcular que va a ser de ella, parece que con el recorte de dividendo, la venta de partes de la empresa y finiquitando deuda terminará recuperándose, y aunque seguirá siendo un monstruo de empresa no será ni la sombre de lo que era.
Con Heinz… es verdad que la calificación no es para tirar cohetes y que la empresa últimamente lo está haciendo regulín, pero también es verdad que sigue siendo un gigante alimenticio y que, aunque nos fastidiara a los que nos pilló dentro, recortar dividendo es lo más inteligente que ha podido hacer. Por cierto, llevo una temporada volviendo a ver anuncios de ellos en la TV, algo que parecían tenían de lado, otra buena señal. A eso es a lo que creo que se refiere el cuando habla de Kraft-Heinz, a las posibilidades que tiene a largo plazo, independientemente de lo que digan las agencias de calificación, ya sabemos todos que credibilidad tienen también…
Os pongo la lista de su cartera, no se si se verá bien.
Salu2
The lesson for me is that overvaluation comes in shades. You hear a lot of hand-wringing from investors when a P/E ratio crosses 20x earnings. That is often for good reason, but for a great company with above-average prospects, the dangers don’t really start to manifest until you cross the 25x earnings threshold. At that point, the terms of the investment become “Grow at 12% or greater or I will suffer mediocre compounding.” I’m not saying that Nike will not be a double-digit compounder over the next decade, but if it does, it will require 14% or greater earnings per share growth. That type of hurdle is placed too high for my taste.
Five years from now, Johnson & Johnson will be earning $30 billion in profits and generating $12 per share in profits. It just keeps chugging along at a high single-digit pace and paying out half of its profits as dividends which usually means a 2-3% dividend yield. It is on the short list of ‘Ole Reliables of the investing world. And with Schwab and other brokerage houses eliminating commissions, there is nothing stopping you from accumulating shares every month as you go through life. Considering the overwhelmingly high likelihood of success, the compounding rate at triple the rate of inflation is nothing short of incredible. And it just sits there, waiting for you to combine knowledge with action.
