Filososofía Chowder

También es verdad que los “jovencitos” igual prefieren retirarse antes

En mi caso particular me gustaría dejar de trabajar en el sentido estricto de la palabra bastante antes de los 60. Veremos si lo consigo

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Actualización de la cartera de su hijo (Jovencitos) a fecha 27 diciembre:

"I am going to list the companies by position size (a full position is $6,000) and the yield of that company as it stands today.

TAXABLE ACCOUNT:

SYY … $8821 … 2.10%

MCD … $8466 … 2.54%

LMT … $8325 … 2.45%

ADP … $7995 … 2.14%

KO … $7617 … 2.91%

JNJ … $7186 … 2.61%

SO … $7039 … 3.93%

TGT … $6731 … 2.05%

DG … $6651 … 0.82%

PEP … $5893 … 2.79%

KMB … $5625 … 3.00%

NKE … $5611 … 0.97%

MA … $5428 … 0.53%

ABT … $5409 … 1.65%

NEE … $5404 … 2.07%

HD … $5132 … 2.46%

UL … $4940 … 3.19%

SBUX … $4933 … 1.86%

SWK … $4897 … 1.67%

GIS … $4784 … 3.74%

NSC … $4757 … 1.93%

V … $4757 … 0.63 (no mistake, same as NSC)

DE … $4594 … 1.74%

GPC … $4444 … 2.88%

MMM … $4431 … 3.26%

CVX …$4292 … 3.95%

CL … $3842 … 2.51%

CBRL … $3695 … 3.35%

The yield on this account is 2.32%


ROTH IRA:

MKC … $5827 … 1.46%

PG … $5626 … 2.38%

VZ … $5325 … 4.01%

O … $5199 … 3.75%

T … $5020 … 5.31%

D … $4888 … 4.51%

WELL … $4738 … 4.32%

DUK … $4283 … 4.18%

VFC … $4168 … 1.93%

BDX … $3985 … 1.17%

XOM … $3951 … 4.96%

KMI … $3872 … 4.72%

COST … $3785 … 0.88%

UNP … $3688 … 2.15%

HRL … $3621 … 2.05%

LOW … $3441 … 1.84%

FAST … $3128 … 2.38%

ACN … $2983 … 1.51%

CAT … $2665 … 2.78%

AWK … $2341 … 1.64%

DEO … $2027 … 2.51%

BF.B … $1363 … 1.03%

CTAS … $1345 … 0.95%

SYK … $1267 … 1.10%

WM … $1258 … 1.81%

KTB … $212 … 5.40% (spin off from VFC)

The yield on this account is 2.89%

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Esta bien leer estas listas, para darse cuenta tambien de lo bajos que estan los Yields de muchas, en estos momentos del partido.

Es evidente que si se empieza ahora, los yields tan bajos, el riesgo implícito es mayor, el dividendo de acolchado es menor.

Nos exige ser selectivos, esperar otras ventanas sectoriales si hay bajadas, entrar en las caidas o en sectores desfavorecidos…

Comprar yields del 2,5% es mucho menos atractivo y menos compensatorio. Ademas, las utilities han subido, y bajado su yield.

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La verdad es que hay multitud de empresas con yields más que justos. …cuesta decidir donde meter el dinero. Si quieres utilities estás jod…do.

Sin ir más lejos, hace no mucho se hablaba de lo caras que estaban sse, ng, severn. … que les echen un vistazo ahora. Todas con un +25/40%| y yo con cara de poker sin poder recargar…

Al final lo más asequible que veo en estos momentos es Enagas y Ree.

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SSE no me parecia cara.

Estaba baja debido a la incertidumbre.
Era la incertidumbre la que nos daria miedo de aumentar más.
Aumenté en SSE y NG, aunque la incertidumbre te previene de cargar aún mas. Y que en NG ya voy mas cargado.

SevernTrent deberia haber añadido mas. Nunca bajó tanto como UU wtc… al final parecia con un suelo mas estable y ha rebotado mucho.

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Hola

Sigo este hilo ya que la filosofía de chowder y la estrategia por sectores me gusta en empresas DGI
Ojeando por internet he vista 5 etf de blackrock que invierten precisamente por sectores, lanzados en octubre de 2019, los pongo a continuación para quien puedan ser de interés.

Consumo defensivo
https://www.blackrock.com/es/productos/308902/ishares-msci-world-consumer-staples-sector-ucits-etf-usd-dist-fund

Salud
https://www.blackrock.com/es/productos/308909/ishares-msci-world-health-care-sector-ucits-etf-usd-dist-fund

Cíclico
https://www.blackrock.com/es/productos/308873/ishares-msci-world-consumer-discretionary-sector-ucits-etf-usd-dist-fund

Energía
https://www.blackrock.com/es/productos/308904/ishares-msci-world-energy-sector-ucits-etf-usd-dist-fund

Tecnología
https://www.blackrock.com/es/productos/308858/ishares-msci-world-information-technology-sector-ucits-etf-usd-dist-fund

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"2020 Portfolio Objectives:

I will approach this portfolio in two phases this coming year, an objective for the first 3 or 4 months and then an objective for the remainder of the year.

I do not intend to add any new companies to this portfolio, the 54 positions total is more than enough for me, so companies within this portfolio become the watch list for this year. By having a predetermined objective, it gives me a track to run on, as opposed to whack-a-mole investing where I am all over the place and have no idea where that may be.

Direction! … You need to know where you are going.

With this in mind, it is my goal to build current positions up in size. I am going to start with the 4 or 5 companies that represent the smallest position by market value in both the Traditional Ira and the Roth.

Therefore, here is 2020’s watch list.

Roth Ira … BF.B … CTAS … SYK … WM

Taxable Account … CBRL … CL … CVX … GPC … MMM

I will be working with the Roth Ira first and will choose positions by the earliest ex-dividend date. This way I should be able to pick up an extra dividend or two in 2020. I will be using this same process when it comes time to add to the Taxable Account.

The objective for both accounts will be, to go with the highest yielding companies in Phase Two. Look for that watch list around April or May and I will provide that watch list at the time.

There will be one exception to whether a company off the current watch list will be purchased. That exception will be any position in the portfolio that announces a 10% or more dividend increase.

There you have it! Simple, clean and easy to implement. … And, I have certainty going into the new year."

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"To all you people sitting on cash because you think the market is overvalued … you ain’t got your mind right! … Don’t you think it’s time you do?

Let’s begin by saying, you aren’t buying the market. You are buying a partnership in a long time established company who is making profits and sharing those profits with you. The larger your share position is, the more profits you receive.

Let’s talk about valuations for the umpteenth time. If you are frightened over paying too much now, try this exercise on for size. Take a look at your best performing companies and come up with a price target that you would go ahead and pull the trigger on. It’s not enough to say something is overvalued, you need a price that you think makes it a reasonable enough value to buy.

Let me give you a few examples. I just recently made some purchases in my son’s portfolio without any regard to valuations. One of those companies was ADP. I looked at what Value Engine, a Fidelity related firm, and they said a fair value price target for ADP is $169.44. … ADP is selling for $176.87 so it’s slightly overvalued.

Valuentum, a subscription based firm, says that fair value is a price range and not a price target but for those who insist on a price target, they say fair value for ADP is $161.00 but also says the fair value range goes all the way up to $193.00 because the true value of a company is in the future. … Again, price is at $176.87.

I decided to look at cost basis and when I added to the ADP position I had to average up due to the company performing so well. My new cost basis rose to $53.49 per share. … Are you paying attention? Current price is at $176.87 and my cost basis is $53.49 even though I just added more shares. If I had more cash, I’d add even more.

You have to look at the big picture and look at your portfolio as a whole. It’s not important what the market is doing, it is important what you are doing.

I just added more to JNJ. Value Engine says fair value is $148.57, Valuentum says $151.00 and price is at $149.18. I would say JNJ is fairly valued right now and there’s no excuse not to buy more. Valuentum says JNJ’s fair value range goes all the way up to $181.00.

After adding to my son’s JNJ position, the new cost basis is $68.20 per share. … Hello!!!

I just added more KO. Now KO by most measures truly is overvalued. Value Engine says FV is $50.12 and Valuentum says $39.00 . … Ha! Today’s price is at $56.98.

My son’s new cost basis, again after adding more shares, is $28.70, well below Valuentums’s very low price of $39.00.

Since our new cost basis for companies is well below what anyone could reasonably expect to purchase, why should I fear market valuations as opposed to company specific valuations? This is why I focus on strength. The strong often get stronger!

I have quite a few other examples I can provide, but if you don’t get it by now, there’s no hope.

In building a long term portfolio you have to stop looking at short term tactics. The people you are listening to are buy low, sell high, and do so within a year. A long term portfolio has to ignore these tactics and build for the future. After all, prices are going to be much higher 20 years from now so today isn’t that important.

Think about this for a minute. … With the Dow at 29,000, if it just grows at a 4% compounded annual rate of growth, in 20 years we will have a Dow of 65,000 … BOOM! … What do you think valuations will look like at Dow 65,000 compared to today at Dow 29,000? And we’re talking just 4% growth and all of you are expecting more than that from your portfolio.

Time to get your mind right folks. Time to see where you can put that cash to work and start making some money."

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100X100 con este punto de vista.

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Alegato en favor del DCA

[David Crosetti] … >>> In 2018, I finally bought a stake in PEP. After all these years Why? It was on sale, at $97 a share. <<<

That’s my point Dave! It took you years to get into PEP. If you had just bought it 20 years earlier, even if it was overvalued at the time, you would have had huge gains. Hell, if it took until 2018 for it to be on sale, I overpaid by a bunch yet am showing triple digit gains in this portfolio. I was averaging up and the cost basis has risen to the low 70’s. You bought it on sale north of $100.Let’s not forget how you started out. You owned 5 consumer staples and held them for years. Valuations never came into play for you, if it had your KO position never would have been as large as it was.Personally, I don’t care if what you think I am doing is momentum investing. I’m not even sure you know what that is.

You said “The “buy high, buy higher” approach of momentum investing is great as long as the market keeps going up.”

If you buy a position today, isn’t it your wish that everything will go up in price? If it does, then you can’t ever add to it because you bought low and bought even higher. The point is you had to buy higher to build your positions.As to the market going down, so what? If it goes down are you going to all cash? Did you do go to all cash in the previous recessions you’ve been through? … I didn’t think so. So why should people here worry about the market going down? Wouldn’t it simply be a temporary move and an opportunity to buy more?I am simply building positions in quality companies whether they seem overpriced or not. I already gave you a list of the companies I added to that were on your undervalued list going into 2019. I also added some to companies that didn’t make your list.

What I am doing … for the record … is using a dollar cost average approach. Try and prove that doesn’t work over a couple of decades which is what young people here have to work with.

Mike Nadal even put a portfolio together, he calls it the DG 50 portfolio, and most of the best performers on that list were considered overvalued 5 years ago when he started that portfolio. The people recommending the companies he had to purchase even said so at the time. All Mike can do with that portfolio is hold and reinvest dividends. He couldn’t wait for valuations or price drops, yet the portfolio is successful.

People here are buying 3, 4 or 5 shares at a time and you wish to make it as if it’s the most important decision of their investing career. What people pay for those shares today won’t even show up as a lump on a log on a price chart 20 years from now.I buy whether the market is up, down or trending sideways, whether quality companies are overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued. It’s called dollar cost averaging.

You have achieved your income and portfolio goals that took years to develop. Young people can’t invest the way you suggest and lose the most powerful asset they have, the power of compounding. It’s the early years in investing where the power of dollar cost averaging will have the best results by retirement age. My approach is to buy small and build small, and as you build only add to companies in the green unless a company in the red has a catalyst to indicate prices may head higher.

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Mr. Chowder is on fire!!!

VALUATIONS !!!

Chuck Carnevale just published a nice article here on SA about valuations. He is a devout value investor and is known here on SA as Mr. Valuation. It is a an excellent article about value investing and needs to be put on the front burner for when market conditions change.seekingalpha.com/…

The problem I have with using one type of strategy is that it doesn’t adjust for market conditions, and it’s those market conditions that I focus on and take advantage of. When I recognized that we were in the midst of a strong bull run coming out of the recession, I had to adjust for that.In my 30 plus years of investing in equities,

I have experimented with many different styles of investing, but the one that I found that worked out best for me in a bull market is momentum investing, not value investing. During the current market conditions the last few years, my focus was on buying and building companies that beat earnings and revenue expectations, then guided higher and the market reacting favorably to those reports (known as momentum investing).

I have been very successful with that strategy but am willing to change back to value investing when market conditions warrant such a move. One of the fallacies of value investing is that people are afraid of the draw downs prices may have during bearish market conditions . They are fearful of losing any capital gains they have earned. They think that by buying low they won’t have as much of a draw down as those of us who were paying premiums to buy our stocks. … They don’t know nuthin’!

One of the companies Chuck mentions in his article is V and how overvalued it is. V has been overvalued for several years now. I had to pay a premium to buy V for this portfolio and in fact, bought MA in addition to V on the very same day back in late 2017. Now check this out!In just a little over 2 years, that V position is up 98% and the MA position is up 143%. Do you think I’m afraid of a correction? There are those who will be delighted to see a 20% market correction and brag about the great price they get for waiting to buy V and/or MA. However, whatever they pay will be far above what I paid even though I overpaid to own these companies.People! You’ve got to be fluid.

You must change tactics as market conditions change. Be water, not ice, if you wish to maximize returns. … And I didn’t even mention the dividends I have received and put to use buying other equities. … Ha!

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“Do you see any industries being undervalued?”

Undervalued? … Energy. I do have CVX on the list for purchase but it won’t be the next one, it’ll be in a month or two.

Financial was undervalued but most of them came out with strong earnings reports and are rising in price. Other than that, I don’t see cheap unless you want to invest in stocks that are dogs with fleas. (Gordon Gecko) … Ha! I’ll ignore valuations.

I heard on a CNBC interview the other day that the longer term view one has, the less important valuations are. I’ve been saying this for several years now.

In the young folk portfolio I am simply adding to the smaller positions in order to bring them up in size to other positions. (Roth) … In the taxable account I am more focused on yield.

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Aunque estoy de acuerdo en parte de lo que comenta Chowder, parece que su argumento siempre es que si tienes una posición en +100% y compras unas cuantas acciones más, tu precio medio sube tan poco que cualquier caída da igual.

La pregunta sería si diría lo mismo si no tuviera esa posición de antes y al poco de comprar cayera un 20%. Supongo que en ese caso diría que la última entrada, al menos en timing, no fue buena.

La parte en que sí estoy de acuerdo es que las valoraciones son relativas y que más o menos cualquier precio actual revisándolo pasados 20 años seguramente acabe siendo bueno.

Saludos.

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El argumento principal es que si esperas a que esté barata una empresa de calidad es posible que no entres nunca. Y menos en un mercado alcista donde el momentum funciona mucho mejor que el value. Y que entrando con compras pequeñas espaciadas en el tiempo lo vas a hacer mejor y con menos quebraderos de cabeza que quien ha estado esperando un precio bajo para entrar.

Porque además no es cierto que no mire los precios a los que entra. Se fija en los precios que dan varias casas de análisis y si no está muy caro añade a las empresas de calidad que previamente ha seleccionado.

Lo de que caiga una acción un 20% nada más comprar ya le ha pasado y le seguirá pasando, como a todo el mundo. Dependiendo de los motivos de la caída habrá que hacer una cosa u otra, pero no creo que nadie sepa de antemano que un caída así va a pasar en un periodo corto de tiempo. Porque sería muy fácil hacerse rico con esa información…

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Esta reflexión es muy interesante.
Los fondos de Paramés han sido un desastre estos últimos años. ¿Habrá que esperar a la próxima recesión para entrar en ellos?

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Mas que en el precio medio y que no subiria demasiado yo me fijaria en que si no hay ningun cambio en los fundamentales de esa empresa te estas incorporando aprovechando la tendencia, que aunque muchos hagamos lo contrario, yo incluido, para comprar mas abajo, encontrar el punto mas bajo es muy complicado.

Es mas facil haberse incorporado aunque sea algo tarde en Iberdrola o J&J, que haber buscado un punto de entrada mas bajo.

En J&J ya lo estuvimos hablando muchas veces aqui, cuando estuvo sobre los 128-132. Parecia desde luego un punto algo elevado, pero era una caida apreciable desde maximos, sin perder tendencia. Y al final parece que esa entrada a esos precios va camino de convertirse en buena.

Lo mismo podria decirse de esas empresas que todos conocemos y que casi nunca bajan, estilo MDT, AOS, LOW, etc.

Con esa evolucion durante años es probable que la respuesta a la pregunta Cual es el mejor momento para comprar? sea verdad, Ayer, en este tipo de empresas.

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De Young folks portfolio.

“Food For Thought!
As I listened to CNBC today and over the last few weeks, the common theme is that the market is too expensive. Valuations are too high.
I looked at some of the titles of articles written here on SA and that theme seems to be consistent. Valuations are too high and anyone buying into this market should expect low returns going forward.
Okay, fair enough, but how does one define low? The S&P 500 Index has only produced a 5.0% compounded annual rate of growth over the past 20 years. Is 5% growth considered low?
Now stop and think about that for a minute, 5% annual rate of growth for 20 years. … TWENTY YEARS!
So, I look at that and ask myself, what is the better perspective to have? Should I invest and get low rates of return or stay in cash and get no return? I’ll take the 5% growth rate and be happy with that because what truly matters is that our dividend growth rates will be much higher than that, and it’s the dividends that provide for me in retirement.
To me it’s not what the rate of return is … it’s how much income do our assets generate.
Although young people have years ahead of them and don’t need the income now, they do need to allow it to continually grow so that when they are near retirement they aren’t asking others for help on how to increase their income flows.
Expensive market or not, I’ll keep on buying shares, shares generate dividend cash flows which I will also reinvest.

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Muy interesante esto que comentas Miguel Ángel.

Yo adquirí unas cuantas acciones de Vinci a 83 euros cuando “trocearon” y nos oparon Abertis.

Las moví a cuenta nominativa con CIC Markets Solutions, y desde entonces no he comprado más.

Craso error, porque la cotización ya va por 105 y pico, pero yo quiero muchas más acciones porque me encanta esta empresa, es un coloso, tiene, entre otras cosas, aeropuertos por medio mundo.

Pues bien, me voy a obligar en abril a comprar más acciones, a 105 y pico o al precio al que estén en ese momento, siempre que no se dispare mucho la cotización claro.

Es que no creo que esta empresa vaya a cotizar otra vez a 83, y no ofrece la opción de pago en acciones y que yo sepa no hay bonus de lealtad en este caso, pero es un empresón y la quiero como sea.

Usando la terminología que muchos usáis habitualmente, considero que esta empresa va a ser una de mis empresas “core”, por así decirlo.

Y ya que lo comentas en J&J tengo poquitas, no llevo ni la mitad de la posición formada, me tocará comprar a 150 pavos o lo que toque, fijo que sí.

No obstante, lo voy a hacer de esta manera, un mes compro “empresa barata” y al mes siguiente “empresa cara core o de gran calidad”, de ese modo, alternando compras la cartera se irá equilibrando, que es una de mis grandes obsesiones.

No querría tener 30k en una sola empresa y luego 2k en otra, quiero una cartera lo más homogénea posible, si luego hay empresas que crecen mucho, pues bueno, lo aceptaré porque yo no me planteo hacer rebalanceos.

Digo esto ahora, 5 años y 5 meses después de haber empezado a invertir, a lo mejor si llevase 20 años rebalancería, materializaría plusvalías para optimizar rentas y lo haría sin despeinarme, creo.

Saludos.

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De Vinci no puedo decir nada, no la conozco y nunca me he planteado entrar.

Respecto a J&J y algunas otras creo que es la unica forma de construir posicion, eso si, procurando no pagar barbaridades. Mi primera entrada fue sobre 90 y poco que ya no volvio a visitar con lo cual en una empresa que queria tener si o si tenia dos opciones, quedarme con una posicion pequeñita o pagar lo que pedia el mercado.

Al final prevalecio la calidad de la empresa, cuando bajo hasta los 128-132 hice varias entradas, me subio el precio medio de compra pero tengo una posicion de un tamaño que quiero darle a mis empresas core, sobre un 4-5%, aunque si volviera a caer a esos precios volveria a entrar.

Una reflexion sobre los precios de entrada que ya expresaba en el anterior post.

Todos queremos buenas empresas a los mejores precios, pero la calidad se ha de pagar, es como si eres un enamorado de los coches y tu sueño es un Ferrari, vas a eperar que bajen o pagas lo que te piden por que lo quieres.

Tiene mucho mas sentido entrar en una empresa en tendencia positiva, pagando un poco mas, la probabilidad de equivocarte es pequeña.

Que ha ocurrido con MO o KHC, tampoco creo que sean comparables a J&J pero es un ejemplo. Se ha podido comprar en maximos y han tenido una caida importante. Se ha podido comprar en todo ese recorrido a la baja multitud de veces pero quien te dice que el ultimo precio al que compras ha de ser el mas bajo?

Cuando una compañia baja tanto y de forma tan continuada es por algo, no es un tema puntual, una multa, unos resultados por debajo de lo esperado.

Y a mi me da mas seguridad o me siento mas seguro entrando asi en J&J que en MO.

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Es una buena opcion. O planteatelo de otra manera, si cuando te toque comprar encuentras una empresa de tu lista a un precio decente, comprala, si no, compra la de tus empresas core que este menos cara o mas infraponderada

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