Creo que hoy simplemente tocaba rebote de las empresas de consumo y mas con la correccion del Nasdaq.
Lo del cannabis del Altria y las declaraciones del CEO de Kraft diciendo que hay opciones para mas consolidacion en el sector han sido la excusa para que suba el sector.
Sí, hasta que no haya una legalización en todo EEUU no van a entrar, pero están ya sondeando el mercado.
Para mi, es un tema como la prohibición de las armas, si ganan los republicanos bien para los productores - si son los demócratas, malo… En esto es la otra cara de la moneda, aparentemente es mucho más fácil que se acabe aprobando en todo USA con presidente demócrata, y casi imposible con presidente republicano. En cualquier caso, negocio hay, y si no que se lo digan a los narcos mexicanos…
En cualquier caso, estoy de acuerdo en que hay una burbuja ahora con todo lo que suene a marihuana, es el bitcoin del 2018
Les preguntan tres veces en su presentacion de hoy
Q: There has been quite a bit of interest in the cannabis space, especially given recent news from several large beverage companies, can you remind us of your thoughts on cannabis?
A: As you know cannabis remains illegal on the Federal Law and we intend to continue to comply with Federal Law. Having said that, we are exploring options and we’re mindful of the possibility then in the future cannabis may longer be legal on the Federal Law.
Q: Sure. So coming back to the question that I’d asked on cannabis earlier. So I appreciate that. It is illegal in U.S. right now. But you are seeing some of the other, your peers in beer companies, which have invested in the Canadian cannabis companies. And you have alcoholic beverages business. And there have been all part of studies would suggest, some suggest that there’s an impact and some suggest that there is no impact on alcoholic beverages. Does that lead to any focus on cannabis at all from the – just from the Ste. Michelle Wine Estates point of view?
A: Yes. I think Murray went to the extent. Look, we’re going to evaluate that category, understand it and really explore what our options are in that category.
Q: Were it legalized? Is there any reason to believe that you would have a competitive advantage in the cannabis business, say, relative to a booze company?
A: Well, it’s a hypothetical and actually we’re exploring our options. There’s nothing more I can’t really go beyond that. We’re exploring our options. We’re studying and evaluating market opportunities. And obviously, that question is one of the questions we’re looking at.
Tambien les preguntan por la competencia de JUUL
Q: Investors are focused on the twin disruptive threats of iQOS and JUUL right now in the industry. Before we delve into specifics of these, can you remind investors of some of the disruptions that have happened over years and why they did not succeed is today, the biggest wheel of disruption that you have seen in your career?
A: I don’t want to get into a discussion of what were the most disruptive threats for the tobacco industry over the years, whether it’s Marlboro Friday or the MSA. I think the point is that the industry has always had its challenges and it has always overcome its challenges and we have our fair share of challenges today. We’re looking forward to meeting them.
En resumen que no han dicho nada de nada
Creo que estamos cerca del objetivo a corto plazo, puede subir un poquito más todavía
En concreto, ambas empresas han llegado a un acuerdo por el cual Altria ha comprado 146,2 millones de acciones a un precio unitario de 16,25 dólares canadienses. Esta valoración representa una prima del 41% con respecto a la media del precio de mercado de los títulos de los últimos 10 días.
Además, la firma estadounidense también ha recibido warrants de Cronos Group por un valor de 1.400 millones de dólares canadienses (919 millones de euros). Estas opciones de compra equivalen a un 10% adicional del capital social del productor de marihuana. Si Altria ejerce sus derechos en estos warrants, su participación llegaría hasta el 55%.
La compañía radicada en Toronto ha calificado de “estratégica” esta alianza con Altria y ha asegurado que la transacción le proporcionará recursos financieros y capacidades de desarrollo y comercialización de sus productos.
“Altria es el socio ideal para Cronos, ya que nos proporcionará los recursos y experiencia que necesitamos para acelerar de manera significativa nuestro crecimiento estratégico”, ha señalado el presidente y consejero delegado de la empresa canadiense, Mike Gorenstein.
De su lado, el presidente y consejero delegado de Altria, Howard Williard, ha explicado que Cronos será su “socio exclusivo” para expandirse en el mercado emergente del cannabis.
Comentaba tb ayer … que habeis comentado la entrada de MO en Cronos y las negociaciones para la posible toma de una posición en JUUL, pero me sorprende que no hayais mencionado que MO suspende el desarrollo de sus productos MarkTen y Green Smoke en el segmento e-vapor y los productos de nicotina oral de Verve.
Esta gente se ha sentado a hacer números, y ante la evidencia de que sus productos no estaban alcanzando la posición que ellos desearían en el mercado y que no tenían pinta de poder lograrlo han decidido cortar por lo sano y pasar de seguir echando recursos en ellos y pasar directamente al plan B, parece ser que es mas eficiente comprarte al que fabrica el producto líder del segmento.
A eso le han sumado el desembarco, por fin tras muchas especulaciones, en el sector del cannabis canadiense.
El equipo gestor de MO tiene fama de saber lo que hace, o eso parece haber demostrado en el pasado, ahora solo queda esperar que sigan manteniendo el buen olfato y la brújula engrasada.
Un saludo.
Altria anuncia la fecha de su próximo dividendo:
Ex-dividend : 24DIC
Pago: 10ENE19
Cantidad: 0.8 $, igual que el anterior trimestre
We are lowering our fair value estimate of Altria to $62 per share from $64 following its investment in vaping manufacturer Juul at an egregiously expensive price we think will destroy value for shareholders. We model a decrease in medium-term ROIC of over 20 percentage points. Altria is acquiring a 35% stake in Juul for a staggering $12.8 billion. We think there is a great deal of strategic rationale for the investment, but at this valuation, we think the transaction prices in all of the opportunity but none of the risk to Juul’s long-term cash flows.
Our concern with the deal is the valuation, plain and simple. In our note last month, we estimated a reasonable valuation to be $16 billion, in line with its implied value in July when it raised $1.2 billion in capital. At $38 billion, Altria is valuing Juul at more than double this level, and, according to Pitchbook data, at multiples of 40 times sales and 150 times EBITDA. Since the capital raise in the summer, Juul has continued to grow rapidly, and appears likely to grow revenue at around 400% this year, although disclosure is very limited and the financial terms of the deal are opaque. Going forward, it seems much of the growth will be driven by overseas markets. In addition, Juul is already profitable, unlike the vaping operations of the Big Tobacco companies.
Nevertheless, Altria is investing in Juul just as that growth is coming under threat. The FDA’s stated goal is to reduce under-age use of nicotine products, and it recently imposed tighter age verification controls on the sale of vaping liquids. Further restrictions may follow in the future. This seems very likely to slow the growth of Juul, whose emergence has coincided with a sharp rise in nicotine product consumption among school children. The FDA recently cited data from the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey indicating there was a 78% increase in the number of U.S. high school children using e-cigarettes in 2017-2018 over the year-ago period.
mmmmmm para empezar el día con un chute de energía y ánimo, no hay nada como ese optimismo desbordante que a veces te sale por los poros por que no te cabe en el cuerpo. Te parece bonito cargarte un Viernes así, de buena mañana? 
Un saludo.
Veremos como evoluciona el tema. Por ahora Altria ha dejado de tener la mejor hoja de balance del sector. Lo de JUUL habra que ver como termina. Es curioso que en los resultados BATS e IMB dicen que han perdido cuota de mercado en cigarrillos electronicos en USA pero que a la vez han aumentado ventas. Es decir, el mercado de cigarrillos electronicos se ha expandido y todas han vendido mas (y JUUL muy por encima de todas las demas) Pero ¿De donde han venido todos esos nuevos usuarios de cigarrillos electronicos? La CEO de IMB comento en una entrevista que hicieron encuestas entre los compradores tradicionales de tabaco y la mayoria no sabian lo que era JUUL. Si la mayor parte del crecimiento ha venido por los jovenes la FDA puede ponerse seria con el tema. De una forma u otra ya hay una nueva generacion USA enganchada a la nicotina. Y luego la culpa es de los mentolados …
El repunte del % de fumadores quizás no sea una cosa aislada de USA…
Y si solo se puede fumar en la calle eso hará que con el tiempo, si la tendencia sigue en aumento, se produzcan nuevos cambios y no solo en el lado d ela legislación, sino desde el lado de los que pretenden rentabilizar esas corrientes tb. Como con casi todo, cuestión tiempo …
Un saludo.
Artículo de Dividend Growth Investor…
This week, we had Altria announce a major investment in JUUL. You can read the press release here:
As part of the agreement, Altria will participate in the e-cigarette category only through JUUL. The investment complements Altria’s non-combustible offerings in smokeless and heat-not-burn, upon FDA authorization of IQOS. JUUL has a large market share in e-vapor market in the US, and has global operations.
Earlier this month, Altria announced an investment in cannabis company Cronos.
https://www.altria.com/Media/Press-Releases/Pages/PressReleaseDetails.aspx?reqID=2379927
As a shareholder, I am not overly excited about these moves. There are several risks I am seeing behind this investment.
The first risk is that they are investing in a business at a high valuation. This is a business that has been around for a few years, and has an exciting product that can offer a lot of growth for the future. At a high enough price however at a high sales multiple a lot of the future profits are already baked in. We live in an era where we have a lot of cash chasing private equity deals, which increases their valuation. The implied value of Juul is $38 billion, versus $16 billion during the summer, when the company closed a round of funding from venture capitalists.
Altria has had success in the past with other investments and acquisitions, including those of UST, General Foods etc. So I am going to give them the benefit’s of the doubt of course. But it does seem like JUUL is getting Altria’s shelf space, distribution, relationships with retailers and customers, and Altria is seemingly trying to disrupt its own business. Too much deal activity in such a short period of time, at such inflated valuations seem a little concerning. I am hopeful to be wrong on this one.
Second, I am always concerned when mature and successful companies buy their way to future growth. There is always the risk that you are overpaying, and that the investment banker projections do not turn out as expected. The deals for a marijuana company and Juul make it seem like Altria does not believe in the future of cigarettes. However, we do not know whether there will be the same level of brand awareness that Altria’s products generate. So if you pay too much, and turns out that the product doesn’t have the same lasting value and brand awareness that traditional tobacco products have, you may have to deal with impairments.
Third, there is a risk that Altria is going to cannibalize existing sales, because it will help Jul distribute products and give up its shelf space. This is for a company that Altria only has 35% interest in and overpaid for. This move looks like a desperate one or it shows that executives want to leverage the stable cash flows of Altria on a gamble for a hot new product.
The other risk is of increased regulatory oversight of alternative tobacco products. If those are viewed as gateway drugs into nicotine addiction, we may get more regulation. We do not have the same level of visibility that we have with the Master Settlement Agreement of 1998.
I read some articles that stated how JUUL employees will be receiving massive bonuses after the deal closes. I am really hoping that these employees do not leave their work after this – there is a real risk that their productivity will be lower and they won’t be as hungry as before.
The real risk as a dividend investor is that the added debt will result in less flexibility with future dividend growth. I would state that the risk of a dividend cut is higher today than a few months ago. In my reviews of dividend paying companies and why they cut dividends, I have learned that large investments made with debt increase the risk of dividend cuts down the road. I am hopeful that Altria’s management will not make any drastic changes, and I am certainly not forecasting a dividend cut. However, I will monitor the situation closely.
While I will hold on to my shares for the foreseeable future, I may think before from buying more shares. It is possible that earnings per share will continue growing over time driven by the core tobacco business. The valuation is attractive at 12 times forward earnings. However, the situation is different today, and I am a little concerned about the size and premium paid for recent acquisitions in new and untested markets. The concern is that with the added emphasis on growth, Altria of 2019 will be different than the Altria I invested in the first place. It is possible that dividend growth will be curtailed. I believe that the dividend will likely become less of a priority, and the risk of a dividend cut, although very remote, is increased.
Algunas notas de la conference call
Bonnie Herzog
And then one final question from me, if I may, although, I still have several others, but just hoping you could possibly frame for us when you expect this deal to be accretive. And possibly how long after it gets antitrust approval, which I know is tough to figure out or time?
Billy Gifford
Based on that modeling, if you think about the last three announcements we made, Cronos, Juul and the cost reduction program. If you take them in totality, we see accretion in the second full year and so that’s what we’ve modeled and that’s what we feel good about, confirming that through a due diligence process. And so that's where we stand on that. And I’ll let Murray address the HSR.
Howard Willard
And I think what we communicated in the release is we remain confident in our long-term aspiration of 7% to 9% EPS growth.
Billy Gifford
No Judy. We remain committed to that 80% dividend payout target ratio. And I think it shows you the nature of the cash generation of our core business.
Vaya leñazo se esta llevando Altria hoy ( -7,03% ) en este momento, Llevo tiempo siguiéndola,¿ es el momento de entrar?
Muy buenas, en esta entré yo el viernes a 48 pavos y hoy me estreno con una crujida como un piano. Peor no se puede hacer, en fin…
A ver si el mercado encuentra pronto otro saco de boxeo y se olvida del tabaco
Ampliamos posición a 44,85. Se nos queda el precio medio en 50,70$.
Si con caidas del 15 o 20% andamos mal, casi mejor ni pensar el dia que se nos venga un crack…