Parece que ADP está de moda. Cartera CQSS, Stock del mes de DVK y Chowder habla de ella también.
"I’ve had ADP in a number of portfolios for some time now. For those of you who pay attention to total return, it is up 139% in the Young Folk Portfolio that I blog about. It is a full position.
Those of you who are familiar with my work know that I talk about taking the ‘condition of the market’ into consideration when investing. Back around 2010 and 2011, those of us who used FAST Graphs wouldn’t consider buying a company whose price was above the orange line, yet below the blue line. The blue line representing historical PE. At the time, the common phrase was, there are better investments elsewhere and the focus was on deep discount to fair value. Being simply undervalued wasn’t good enough.
The cost basis for ADP in the young folk portfolio is $55 yet at the time, $55 seemed too much to pay for ADP. ADP hasn’t seen a price that low in 7 years. Since I believe the true value of a company is in the future, I ignored the warnings at the time that ADP was too expensive. My focus was simply on buying good companies that I wanted to own long term and build as I went along.
I will stipulate that I do believe ADP is fairly valued today at $132, and I believe the same thing at $132 that I did when it was at $55. The true value of a company is in the future. An example of how that will work.
For the past 10 years, ADP has shown a 15.78% compounded annual rate of growth, dividends NOT reinvested. If we lower that CAGR to just 8% over the next 10 years, today’s price of $132 will become $285, presenting a triple digit gain. And this is with cutting total return almost in half of what it has done in the past 10 years.
This is why I don’t give the same level of consciousness to valuations as many people do. It’s because I believe today’s valuation will be nothing more than a lump on the log 20 years from now. … The true value of a company is in the future.