Vaya desilusión 
, pensé que cuando Chowder decía 14% de incremento, se refería sin dinero nuevo.
Del primer año al segundo, si las aportaciones son similares, el incremento es mayor al 100% normalmente.
Como bien dices, conforme pasa el tiempo, es más difícil tener incrementos elevados.
hola a todos, ¿chowder no habla nunca de priorizar las compras en función de la distancia al 5-Year PAAY o de que la acción este por debajo del per promedio de los últimos años?
un saludo
No.
Por cierto, 42 años es joven, no te quepa duda 
.
seré young folk…
Me has dado la alegría de la noche
Le preguntan sobre una cartera que gestiona para alguien que empezó hace poco, con unos 20k de valor.
"That portfolio is actually up to $30K and holds 14 positions.
AAPL … D … DG … HD … JNJ … KO … MCD … MSFT … NEE … O … PG … SBUX … V … VZ.
They all are currently on dividend reinvestment and I don’t plan on adding any new companies in the near future.
I am not operating on the full position concept with this portfolio. Whatever growth comes, it will be allowed to grow as high as it wants to. The largest position is DG at $3,706 and the smallest position is XOM at $642. It doesn’t make sense to me to trim DG to add to something else at this time, especially when DG is still performing well.
This young woman can’t invest much, she does participate in her 401K (cuenta libre de impuestos en USA), this account is funded by part of her tax refund every year."
Estamos de subidón, ahora el objetivo es 4 Millones en la cartera de su hijo.
" Ten years ago, this portfolio went public with a value of $42000 and was referred to as Project $3 Million. The objective at the time was to invest $500 per month, grow the portfolio value at a CAGR of 8.25% over a 40 year time frame to retirement, and the end result would $3 Million. Hence the name.
I realized at the time, as I do now, that BIG numbers scare people, they can’t relate to them so they ignore the lessons used that help achieve big numbers so I changed the name to the Young Folk Portfolio. That way they could apply the lessons to numbers they can relate to.
I wanted to manage this portfolio the same way we manage our 401K’s except I wanted to use dividend paying stocks as opposed to index or other type of mutual funds. I wanted the dividends at an early age because they generate cash to reinvest. In other words, instead of a company match that we get in a 401K, I wanted a market match from our investments.
Over the past 10 years I have grown the monthly dividend cash flow rate to a point where instead of $500 per month being invested, I now have $1,137 to invest every month between the monthly cash contribution and the dividends being reinvested.
The portfolio value for this portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 19% over the last 10 years and since the objective was 8.25%, the portfolio is well ahead of schedule so I thought I would reevaluate.
This portfolio is $285,000 in value now, has $1,137 per month (and rising) being invested, and only needs an 8% CAGR over the next 30 years until retirement to achieve $4.4 Million. … Hello!
I have been told that a $4-$5 Million portfolio generating $200-$300K per year in dividends was an outlier and not a normal situation for people. However, I am currently showing how a small and normal portfolio grows to an outlier type of portfolio, and I have shown how it is done in real time using real money.
This is being achieved without me even considering valuations, by purchasing higher yielding companies with lower dividend growth numbers, and some have said I don’t have enough growth built in to the portfolio. … In other words, I am using a sub-standard investing style, a less than optimal style, a style that doesn’t maximize growth potential. … YET, being a sub-standard investor, the portfolio is on schedule to reach $4.4 Million at retirement and started out as a small portfolio of just $42000. … I’ll take sub-standard any day if that’s the kind of results that will be achieved, and I’d be willing to bet my critics have portfolios worth less using their superior growth strategies.
There are those who talk … there are those that do.
I am a do’er and those of you who have been following along these years have seen every move made in real time and have actually seen how the portfolio is growing. In a few more years compounding will take over and the portfolio will start to grow exponentially. It takes about 15 years for compounding to show strength and this portfolio is now 10 years in.
I got dibs on $4 Million … git yours!"
[…]
"We are told that young people should take more risk and go for growth instead of worrying about dividend flows. Young people are supposed to own more non-dividend paying companies than focusing on dividend payers. Utilities and other higher yielding companies are even down played by dividend growth investors when making recommendations to young people.
I took the opposite approach in the young folk portfolio. I started with utilities and high yielding companies like T not for their high total return potential, but for the amount of dividends they generated to be used to invest elsewhere. The more cash you have to invest, the more you can grow the portfolio.
This portfolio has shown a compounded annual rate of dividend growth of 24%. That dividend growth didn’t just come from companies increasing their dividends but also from the new shares being purchased with dividends received from high yielding companies. Another measure of dividend growth is the result of a higher yield on cost. The higher the yield on cost, the more dividends are created for reinvestment.
This dividend growth will continue regardless of market conditions whereas share price growth has to rely on a bullish market, in a bearish market share prices decline, but as I have shown this year, in a bearish market dividend cash flow continues to rise in spite of several dividend cuts and suspensions.
The larger your investable cash base is earlier in life, the more powerful compounding becomes later in life."
Voy pegando aquí los comentarios acerca de entrada en empresas de sector energía, en base a determinados marcadores y sus razonamientos. Será interesante leerlos en un par de años y ver en qué lado de la moneda estaba.
" >>> The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. <<<
As to having a white paper report or some sort of research, no. As I have said many times, I have been through several boom and bust cycles. It was 20 years ago or so when I went through a bust cycle and was part of a message group that consisted of many workers in the oil industry including a CEO of one company. @rnsmth knows one of those folks and we both miss him.
Everyone shared their information as to what was going on within their own companies, I used to talk to investor relations people in the oil industry all the time. One company knew me by name and even suggested others on that message board to listen to some of the things I had to say as I was up on them at the time. (No way I’ll put forth that kind of effort today. Ha!)
I was 100% invested in the oil service sector at the time. I recall walking into the pub, head looking up at the ceiling sniffing and I asked everyone, can you smell that? They asked, smell what? I said opportunity. It’s time to buy oil companies. Best moves I ever made. It’s funny because my best and worst investing moves have both come in the energy sector.
So again, all I know is that from past experience, the last several bust cycles I went through, the indicator we all looked towards was the Baker Hughes rig count. At the time everyone in that oil message blog was tuned in on Friday afternoons waiting for the count.
This time might be different, the rig count rise may be short lived, but if rigs are going to be unstacked, then that does indicate some sort of expectations going forward about having enough supply to meet demand, and I would assume that earnings for some of these companies, as the rigs go to work, won’t be a bad as expected. That’s how a bottoming process starts and prices have to have a bottom in order to show a consistent rise.
Now take a look at the following chart. This is what it looked like at the close this past Thursday. Go back to October 2, it was a Friday, and look at that blank candlestick pattern trimmed in red. That was a bullish reversal pattern and that reversal pattern was reacting to the rig count on that day as the market was surprised at the number being higher than expected.
Reversal patterns need confirmation and that confirmation was provided for on Thursday. Look at that wide range white candle (last one, bottom right on the chart), that was your signal that it might be time to start easing into energy.
stockcharts.com/…
This is a short term pattern, not designed for long term expectations, but in the short term technicals rule, in the long term fundamentals do, thus my suggesting it might be time to ease into energy. The next earnings report should tell us if the fundamentals can support a possible bottom being established, and from a bottom we can start to build.
Again, these patterns don’t show up often but this one showed up in conjunction with that rising rig count and someone who understands how the energy sector works knew this because that’s why the buying has showed up. You don’t get this information on CNBC, I had to be schooled on it."
[…]
“>>> Our concern is the ease with which production can be increased these days. This will cap any significant price appreciation. <<<
This is important to understand. There can’t be any significant price appreciation until the fundamentals support the techincals and that does take time. Hence the easing in of positions as opposed to buying larger lots. A slower price rise should be expected, not a significant one.
By the time the fundamentals support the techincals, the easy money will have been made and people will say, I’ll buy the next dip which often times doesn’t come at better prices.
I want to reiterate, the current set up has historically proven successful, but I am waiting on XOM to report the end of this month before making a move. I would like one more piece of information before I go boom-chucka-lucka.
This is based on what I know today. I have no idea what market moving news may come out between now and the end of the month which would definitely alter my prognosis at this time.”
[…]
“I only have XOM … CVX and KMI in the young folk portfolios and they can’t add to all 3 companies at once. They also can’t go in big either, so I will add in $500 - $800 lots and do it one by one.
I can’t add to anything until the first of the month anyway because I have to wait on dividends and monthly cash flows to hit the accounts.
I’ll add to XOM first because of the higher yield and the steeper discount to fair value.
[…]
So, I will not be buying energy under any circumstances for the older folks, and for the younger folks I will add in small amounts provided I accept what I see from XOM at the end of this month.
I like CVX now if someone wants to own more. I’m waiting on XOM because I can only add to one and that one has the more interesting story if things work out at earnings. If I had some cash in the young folk portfolios I would be adding to CVX now but in small amounts of $500 - $800. I would do a little more if they had a little more.”
Composición actual de la cartera de su hijo.
I am going to list the companies by position size and show the total return percentages.
Update as of 10/07/2020
A full position is $6,000.
TAXABLE ACCOUNT: (Portfolio value and return)
LMT … $8,217 … up 236.18%
DG … $9,104 … up 164.95%
ADP … $6,853 … up 160.29%
MCD … $9,709 … up 152.53%
TGT … $8,395 … up 142.76%
MA … $6,208 … up 137.76%
ABT … $6,658 … up 120.64%
JNJ … $7,310 … up 116.86%
DE … $6,166 … up 109.74%
NKE … $6,933 … up 103.98%
SYY … $6,838 … up 87.03%
V … $5,089 … up 86.42%
PEP … $5,870 … up 83.59%
HD … $6,612 … up 80.19%
CL … $4,886 … up 71.26%
NEE … $6,628 … up 69.91%
KMB … $6,145 … up 69.74%
NSC … $5,376 … up 69.58%
KO … $7,053 … up 68.47%
GIS … $5,590 … up 59.73%
SBUX … $4,951 … up 55.86%
SWK … $5,172 … up 41.73%
SO … $6.525 … up 39.24%
UL … $5,313 … up 27.55%
AAPL … $1,844 … up 26.52%
GPC … $4,723 … up 14.97%
PTY … $1,875 … up 5.08%
MSFT … $1,467 … up 3.16%
MMM … $4,287 … dn 1.91%
CVX … $2,710 … dn 20.73%
The yield on this account is 2.32%
AAPL, MSFT and PTY are newer purchases.
ROTH IRA:
LOW … $4,849 … up 127.23%
COST … $4,694 … up 109.88%
MKC … $6.608 … up 96.42%
PG … $6,317 … up 95.34%
UNP … $4,262 … up 86.95%
CAT … $2,894 … up 59.85%
FAST … $3,947 … up 42.99%
AWK … $2,953 … up 42.79%
VZ … $5,822 … up 40.63%
D … $5,670 … up 37.88%
HRL … $2,975 … up 36.84%
BF.B … $2,246 … up 36.19%
BDX … $3,453 … up 32.95%
DEO … $1,707 … up 32.08%
CTAS … $1,679 … up 31.19%
ACN … $3,141 … up 30.40%
VFC … $3,225 … up 28.59%
O … $5,474 … up 28.16%
SYK … $1,964 … up 16.14%
DUK … $5,164 … up 7.68%
WM … $1,854 … up 6.22%
WELL … $3,354 … dn 4.49%
T … $5,145 … dn 14.30%
KMI … $2,435 … dn 50.37%
XOM … $1,994 … dn 56.99%
The yield on this account is 3.07%
Dividend cuts: WELL and D (held). … Dividend suspensions: CBRL and KTB, both of which have been sold.
Como calcula que una full position es de 6k?
Coge el valor total de tu cartera y divide por el número de posiciones. Eso, para quien ya tenga una cartera en marcha, marca cuánto debería ser una posición.
Por supuesto, el valor de posición irá subiendo a medida que alcanzamos objetivos.
Por eso hay que ampliar el número de posiciones, a medida que la cartera aumenta. Por un lado porque de esa manera baja la cantidad que habría que dedicarle a una posición completa, siendo más fácil alcanzarla. Por otro, disminuye el riesgo de meter mucho dinero en unos pocos valores.
“Being to goal oriented person that I am, I am already thinking about what my goals will be for the first part of 2021.
In both the older folk and young folk portfolios, the overall objective will be to raise the value of a full position.
Many people prefer to trim overweight positions and use the proceeds to build the smaller positions, but I have found in my experience that my overweight positions have become overweight due to their performance, not me throwing more money at it. From my perspective, I want more of what’s working best for me, not less of it, so in my case I would prefer to raise the value of a full position and add more to it. It’s not just a matter of letting your winners run, it’s letting them run while to continue to add more to it.
Therefore, where a full position in the older folk portfolio is currently $200K each, I will raise it to $300K each. … In the young folk portfolio, where a full position is $6K each, I will raise the value of a full position to $12K each. That way, the $9K value that DG currently shows in the young folk portfolio, rather than being trimmed, can be added to. That position is currently up $173% and I think over time it’s going a lot higher, so I want more of it, not less of it.
I will use dividends to help build the smaller positions, not trimming winners to do so. And when I start adding to these full sized positions, I will start with those showing the highest percentage of total return gains, in other words, all companies exceeding 100% gains so far will be added to first.
I want to build on strength!”
Acerca de XOM
"When a company is showing double digit losses, I don’t throw good money after bad by averaging down until I see a catalyst indicating price may start heading higher.
I have been watching XOM for such a catalyst. A rising rig count is one of the catalysts I was looking for and that is happening, but I did say I was going to wait on the earnings report for further information that would clarify a buy signal. XOM announced earnings today and no such signal appeared.
In addressing the dividend, management said they are committed to it, however they acknowledged that “all bets are off” should current operating conditions persist through next year.
If the energy demand recovery appears likely to be pushed out beyond 2021, then Exxon will probably be forced to cut its dividend to protect its balance sheet, perhaps by the middle of next year.
Management said their plan has some “contingency and flexibility” but made it clear that taking on additional debt is not part of the equation.
In the past, management has been willing to take on debt to cover the dividend but they are clearly stating they don’t wish to do that at this time. Therefore, with management signalling the possibility of a cut with his words of “all bets are off” if certain conditions aren’t met, I will simply hold for now and wait to add additional shares."
Coherente y sensato.
Comentario para guardar y leer cada cierto tiempo.
También aplicable a @ifrobertocarlos
"Dividend growth investing is a plan for builders and savers who understand, or want to understand, that the forces of time, modest and reliable growth, and compounding are on their side.
A dividend growth investor knows that their portfolio value will go up and down, as this can never be avoided if you are to have reasonably good long-term gains. However, a dividend growth investor won’t be bothered by the downs, because they understand why the price is down, and they know that prices will rise over the long run. Their confidence level is high because the strategy is based on common sense.
I believe that a portfolio that provides a steady and growing stream of dividend income is the best way to finance a secure retirement without having to worry about the fluctuation of stock prices.
Most investors ask, “What’s my account’s current value?” A dividend growth investor asks, "How much dividend income did my portfolio generate?"
Most investors ask, "How much was my account up or down this year? A dividend growth investor asks, "How much did my account’s income grow this year?"
Most investors ask, “Where is the stock market going this year?” Dividend growth investors don’t try to predict short-term swings in the market.
A dividend growth investor doesn’t focus on capital appreciation, because we never know when it will show up. A dividend growth investor is more concerned with the safety of the dividend and its potential for growth. A dividend growth investor understands that if a company is solid enough to continue paying and raising the dividend, capital appreciation will follow.
The key here, to my understanding, is the sentence … "A dividend growth investor understands that if a company is solid enough to continue paying and raising the dividend, capital appreciation will follow. "
I waited 10 years before showing total return numbers to show how in the longer run capital appreciation shows up.
At no point have I ever said total return wasn’t important to me, I have said it’s something I don’t worry about, or concern myself with in the short term. … Why? Because I expect it to be there over the longer term as long as I stick with higher quality companies.
Most older folks are no longer builders and savers, thus capital preservation becomes more important. Staying ahead of inflation with dividend growth is more important for others. But the dividend growth strategy itself is basically a strategy for builders and savers who optimize dividend growth through dividend reinvestment. Others are free to define the dividend growth strategy as they wish, but please don’t confuse my understanding of it with theirs."
Que gran recordatorio. Para los iniciados en la materia nos alegra ver la cuenta en verde y nos altera y entristece verla en rojo; pero al final ciertamente eso nos tiene que dar igual si las empresas que posemos pagan religiosamente.
Amen.
Que gran error.
Hay que tener un ojo en los dividendos y otro en el crecimiento, si no te puedes quedar sin dividendos y tirado como una colilla.
Ahí, radica la importancia de elegir bien las empresas, si puede ser, negocios que vayan a perdurar para siempre.