Chowder

Seguimos con estrategia de cartera, aclaraciones de dudas.

"I took some hits in the young folk portfolio by selling MO, PM, EPD and MMP but I didn’t look for like to like yields. I accepted the fact I would have to take some short term pain for some long term success.

Although I have very specific dividend cash flow objectives, it hasn’t prevented me from adding companies with very low yields such as MA, V, DG , AAPL, etc.

I simply have to balance those positions out with other portfolio management tactics. Some of those tactics are where I have any company yielding 4% or more on automatic dividend reinvestment. It means any company announcing a 10% dividend increase is an automatic next man up buy. I not only get the 10% increase on the old shares, I get a 10% increase in addition to the yield the new shares provide. Meanwhile the other dividends are collected in cash and invested selectively. It’s all about balance.

If ahead of schedule on the longer term objective, like I am with the young folk portfolio, it means I can ignore any short term dividend growth and purchase nothing but low yielding companies or add a non-dividend paying company or two.

I was reviewing a portfolio last week where someone hasn’t achieved their long term income goal yet but was ahead of schedule. That portfolio also held BRK.B and my recommendation was to add to it, taking it up to a full position. His situation, even though we set a very specific long term target, was ahead of schedule, it allowed for the purchase of a non-dividend paying company.

I don’t know if I’m ahead of schedule or not unless I have an established goal with a time frame. Every time I am asked to review a portfolio, I have to know what it is that person is trying to achieve, without it I can’t or won’t help."

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Gracias!

Este hilo tendría que tener un mensaje fijado con la táctica usada en cada momento. De entre y no excluyentes:

Chowder Number
Beat and Raise
Circle the Wagongs
Next Man Up
Div Increase
High Div Raisers
High Yield
Rig Count Up
Keep Buying

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:heart_eyes: Necesito saber las acciones que contiene el portofolio que incrementa su dividendo un 14,87% anualizado.

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Ese fue mi umbral cuando configure mi cartera DGI en 2010 y durante los primeros años el tabaco y REE lo daban.

Ahora ya no dan ni para pipas.

Si no recuerdo mal, de haber leído en tu hilo, también le pedias a la empresa una alta RPD.

Aún así, MO PM y REE siguen aumentando dividendo y dando una buena rentabilidad.

Si, me referia a que ahora ya no sacas ese 14,87% entre yield + dividend growth en esas. ¿Volveran a darlo algun dia? ¿Cuando sea obligatorio fumar? Quien sabe

He tenido que ir incorporando: ABBV, AOS, AVGO, DPZ, LOW, QSR, SBUX, TXN, HD, UNH, etc para aportar mas crecimiento

Y ahora ya voy a mandar todo a paseo y comprar solo DGI Wide Moat con descuento y fin. Entro en una nueva etapa en la que lo que mas se valora es la tranquilidad como en una piscina cualquiera de Fuentecerrada.

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Pues sí. Menos riesgo, más tiempo para conseguir el objetivo cualquiera que sea, pero hay que buscar los menores sobresaltos posibles aunque sea sacrificando rpd´s iniciales.

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La tranquilidad, la tranquilidad es lo que más se busca…llegas a otras piscinas de aquí de Teruel y hay un montón de traders y tatuados y todo eso…

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Hola. Una consulta de novato. Cuando se habla de esto de crecimiento del 14% anual sería algo así:
Cobro div 10 anuales año 2020
Cobro div 11,40 anuales año 2021
Cobro div 13.09 anuales año 2022
Correcto? Sería el 14% del dividendo bruto

Lo del 14% no es mas que sumar dos porcentajes, por un lado la rentabilidad por dividendo actual (yield) y por otro lado el incremento del dividendo por acción de un año a otro. Este ultimo dato es algo mas difícil de obtener, necesitas saber los dividendos anuales repartidos históricamente y expresar el aumento relativo que haya habido de un año para otro, lo normal es hacer una media de los ultimos 5 o 10 años. Sumando ambos porcentajes creas una especie de indicador que puede servirte para decidir comprar o no una empresa en base al dividendo que da y la evolución que ha tenido ese dividendo en los últimos años.

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ese 14% de incremento del divi tambien tiene en cuenta el dividendo que sale del dinero nuevo. sería la suma de:

  • dividendo que te da el dinero fresco que metes
  • dividendo que te da la reinversion del dividendo
  • incremento organico del dividendo

al principio de la cartera, un incrmeento anual del 14% es “facil” en funcion del peso ponderado del dinero fresco que metes. cuanto más adelante vas, más cuesta eso…

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Ahhh muchas gracias.
Puede ser que esto sea lo que se conoce como el chowder number? Hay una columna en el Excel de champion list que hacen el seeking alpha.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4363904-dividend-champions-for-august-2020

Sería ese valor, no?

Vaya desilusión :pensive:, pensé que cuando Chowder decía 14% de incremento, se refería sin dinero nuevo.

Del primer año al segundo, si las aportaciones son similares, el incremento es mayor al 100% normalmente.

Como bien dices, conforme pasa el tiempo, es más difícil tener incrementos elevados.

hola a todos, ¿chowder no habla nunca de priorizar las compras en función de la distancia al 5-Year PAAY o de que la acción este por debajo del per promedio de los últimos años?

un saludo

No.
Por cierto, 42 años es joven, no te quepa duda :wink:.

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:joy::joy::joy: seré young folk…:joy::joy::joy:

Me has dado la alegría de la noche :joy:

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Le preguntan sobre una cartera que gestiona para alguien que empezó hace poco, con unos 20k de valor.

"That portfolio is actually up to $30K and holds 14 positions.

AAPL … D … DG … HD … JNJ … KO … MCD … MSFT … NEE … O … PG … SBUX … V … VZ.

They all are currently on dividend reinvestment and I don’t plan on adding any new companies in the near future.

I am not operating on the full position concept with this portfolio. Whatever growth comes, it will be allowed to grow as high as it wants to. The largest position is DG at $3,706 and the smallest position is XOM at $642. It doesn’t make sense to me to trim DG to add to something else at this time, especially when DG is still performing well.

This young woman can’t invest much, she does participate in her 401K (cuenta libre de impuestos en USA), this account is funded by part of her tax refund every year."

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Estamos de subidón, ahora el objetivo es 4 Millones en la cartera de su hijo.

" Ten years ago, this portfolio went public with a value of $42000 and was referred to as Project $3 Million. The objective at the time was to invest $500 per month, grow the portfolio value at a CAGR of 8.25% over a 40 year time frame to retirement, and the end result would $3 Million. Hence the name.
I realized at the time, as I do now, that BIG numbers scare people, they can’t relate to them so they ignore the lessons used that help achieve big numbers so I changed the name to the Young Folk Portfolio. That way they could apply the lessons to numbers they can relate to.
I wanted to manage this portfolio the same way we manage our 401K’s except I wanted to use dividend paying stocks as opposed to index or other type of mutual funds. I wanted the dividends at an early age because they generate cash to reinvest. In other words, instead of a company match that we get in a 401K, I wanted a market match from our investments.
Over the past 10 years I have grown the monthly dividend cash flow rate to a point where instead of $500 per month being invested, I now have $1,137 to invest every month between the monthly cash contribution and the dividends being reinvested.
The portfolio value for this portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 19% over the last 10 years and since the objective was 8.25%, the portfolio is well ahead of schedule so I thought I would reevaluate.
This portfolio is $285,000 in value now, has $1,137 per month (and rising) being invested, and only needs an 8% CAGR over the next 30 years until retirement to achieve $4.4 Million. … Hello!
I have been told that a $4-$5 Million portfolio generating $200-$300K per year in dividends was an outlier and not a normal situation for people. However, I am currently showing how a small and normal portfolio grows to an outlier type of portfolio, and I have shown how it is done in real time using real money.
This is being achieved without me even considering valuations, by purchasing higher yielding companies with lower dividend growth numbers, and some have said I don’t have enough growth built in to the portfolio. … In other words, I am using a sub-standard investing style, a less than optimal style, a style that doesn’t maximize growth potential. … YET, being a sub-standard investor, the portfolio is on schedule to reach $4.4 Million at retirement and started out as a small portfolio of just $42000. … I’ll take sub-standard any day if that’s the kind of results that will be achieved, and I’d be willing to bet my critics have portfolios worth less using their superior growth strategies.
There are those who talk … there are those that do.
I am a do’er and those of you who have been following along these years have seen every move made in real time and have actually seen how the portfolio is growing. In a few more years compounding will take over and the portfolio will start to grow exponentially. It takes about 15 years for compounding to show strength and this portfolio is now 10 years in.
I got dibs on $4 Million … git yours!"

[…]

"We are told that young people should take more risk and go for growth instead of worrying about dividend flows. Young people are supposed to own more non-dividend paying companies than focusing on dividend payers. Utilities and other higher yielding companies are even down played by dividend growth investors when making recommendations to young people.

I took the opposite approach in the young folk portfolio. I started with utilities and high yielding companies like T not for their high total return potential, but for the amount of dividends they generated to be used to invest elsewhere. The more cash you have to invest, the more you can grow the portfolio.

This portfolio has shown a compounded annual rate of dividend growth of 24%. That dividend growth didn’t just come from companies increasing their dividends but also from the new shares being purchased with dividends received from high yielding companies. Another measure of dividend growth is the result of a higher yield on cost. The higher the yield on cost, the more dividends are created for reinvestment.

This dividend growth will continue regardless of market conditions whereas share price growth has to rely on a bullish market, in a bearish market share prices decline, but as I have shown this year, in a bearish market dividend cash flow continues to rise in spite of several dividend cuts and suspensions.

The larger your investable cash base is earlier in life, the more powerful compounding becomes later in life."

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