Voy pegando aquí los comentarios acerca de entrada en empresas de sector energía, en base a determinados marcadores y sus razonamientos. Será interesante leerlos en un par de años y ver en qué lado de la moneda estaba.
" >>> The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. <<<
As to having a white paper report or some sort of research, no. As I have said many times, I have been through several boom and bust cycles. It was 20 years ago or so when I went through a bust cycle and was part of a message group that consisted of many workers in the oil industry including a CEO of one company. @rnsmth knows one of those folks and we both miss him.
Everyone shared their information as to what was going on within their own companies, I used to talk to investor relations people in the oil industry all the time. One company knew me by name and even suggested others on that message board to listen to some of the things I had to say as I was up on them at the time. (No way I’ll put forth that kind of effort today. Ha!)
I was 100% invested in the oil service sector at the time. I recall walking into the pub, head looking up at the ceiling sniffing and I asked everyone, can you smell that? They asked, smell what? I said opportunity. It’s time to buy oil companies. Best moves I ever made. It’s funny because my best and worst investing moves have both come in the energy sector.
So again, all I know is that from past experience, the last several bust cycles I went through, the indicator we all looked towards was the Baker Hughes rig count. At the time everyone in that oil message blog was tuned in on Friday afternoons waiting for the count.
This time might be different, the rig count rise may be short lived, but if rigs are going to be unstacked, then that does indicate some sort of expectations going forward about having enough supply to meet demand, and I would assume that earnings for some of these companies, as the rigs go to work, won’t be a bad as expected. That’s how a bottoming process starts and prices have to have a bottom in order to show a consistent rise.
Now take a look at the following chart. This is what it looked like at the close this past Thursday. Go back to October 2, it was a Friday, and look at that blank candlestick pattern trimmed in red. That was a bullish reversal pattern and that reversal pattern was reacting to the rig count on that day as the market was surprised at the number being higher than expected.
Reversal patterns need confirmation and that confirmation was provided for on Thursday. Look at that wide range white candle (last one, bottom right on the chart), that was your signal that it might be time to start easing into energy.
stockcharts.com/…
This is a short term pattern, not designed for long term expectations, but in the short term technicals rule, in the long term fundamentals do, thus my suggesting it might be time to ease into energy. The next earnings report should tell us if the fundamentals can support a possible bottom being established, and from a bottom we can start to build.
Again, these patterns don’t show up often but this one showed up in conjunction with that rising rig count and someone who understands how the energy sector works knew this because that’s why the buying has showed up. You don’t get this information on CNBC, I had to be schooled on it."
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“>>> Our concern is the ease with which production can be increased these days. This will cap any significant price appreciation. <<<
This is important to understand. There can’t be any significant price appreciation until the fundamentals support the techincals and that does take time. Hence the easing in of positions as opposed to buying larger lots. A slower price rise should be expected, not a significant one.
By the time the fundamentals support the techincals, the easy money will have been made and people will say, I’ll buy the next dip which often times doesn’t come at better prices.
I want to reiterate, the current set up has historically proven successful, but I am waiting on XOM to report the end of this month before making a move. I would like one more piece of information before I go boom-chucka-lucka.
This is based on what I know today. I have no idea what market moving news may come out between now and the end of the month which would definitely alter my prognosis at this time.”
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“I only have XOM … CVX and KMI in the young folk portfolios and they can’t add to all 3 companies at once. They also can’t go in big either, so I will add in $500 - $800 lots and do it one by one.
I can’t add to anything until the first of the month anyway because I have to wait on dividends and monthly cash flows to hit the accounts.
I’ll add to XOM first because of the higher yield and the steeper discount to fair value.
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So, I will not be buying energy under any circumstances for the older folks, and for the younger folks I will add in small amounts provided I accept what I see from XOM at the end of this month.
I like CVX now if someone wants to own more. I’m waiting on XOM because I can only add to one and that one has the more interesting story if things work out at earnings. If I had some cash in the young folk portfolios I would be adding to CVX now but in small amounts of $500 - $800. I would do a little more if they had a little more.”