Voy pegando aquí los comentarios acerca de entrada en empresas de sector energía, en base a determinados marcadores y sus razonamientos. Será interesante leerlos en un par de años y ver en qué lado de la moneda estaba.
" >>> The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. <<<
As to having a white paper report or some sort of research, no. As I have said many times, I have been through several boom and bust cycles. It was 20 years ago or so when I went through a bust cycle and was part of a message group that consisted of many workers in the oil industry including a CEO of one company. @rnsmth knows one of those folks and we both miss him.
Everyone shared their information as to what was going on within their own companies, I used to talk to investor relations people in the oil industry all the time. One company knew me by name and even suggested others on that message board to listen to some of the things I had to say as I was up on them at the time. (No way I’ll put forth that kind of effort today. Ha!)
I was 100% invested in the oil service sector at the time. I recall walking into the pub, head looking up at the ceiling sniffing and I asked everyone, can you smell that? They asked, smell what? I said opportunity. It’s time to buy oil companies. Best moves I ever made. It’s funny because my best and worst investing moves have both come in the energy sector.
So again, all I know is that from past experience, the last several bust cycles I went through, the indicator we all looked towards was the Baker Hughes rig count. At the time everyone in that oil message blog was tuned in on Friday afternoons waiting for the count.
This time might be different, the rig count rise may be short lived, but if rigs are going to be unstacked, then that does indicate some sort of expectations going forward about having enough supply to meet demand, and I would assume that earnings for some of these companies, as the rigs go to work, won’t be a bad as expected. That’s how a bottoming process starts and prices have to have a bottom in order to show a consistent rise.
Now take a look at the following chart. This is what it looked like at the close this past Thursday. Go back to October 2, it was a Friday, and look at that blank candlestick pattern trimmed in red. That was a bullish reversal pattern and that reversal pattern was reacting to the rig count on that day as the market was surprised at the number being higher than expected.
Reversal patterns need confirmation and that confirmation was provided for on Thursday. Look at that wide range white candle (last one, bottom right on the chart), that was your signal that it might be time to start easing into energy.
stockcharts.com/…
This is a short term pattern, not designed for long term expectations, but in the short term technicals rule, in the long term fundamentals do, thus my suggesting it might be time to ease into energy. The next earnings report should tell us if the fundamentals can support a possible bottom being established, and from a bottom we can start to build.
Again, these patterns don’t show up often but this one showed up in conjunction with that rising rig count and someone who understands how the energy sector works knew this because that’s why the buying has showed up. You don’t get this information on CNBC, I had to be schooled on it."
[…]
“>>> Our concern is the ease with which production can be increased these days. This will cap any significant price appreciation. <<<
This is important to understand. There can’t be any significant price appreciation until the fundamentals support the techincals and that does take time. Hence the easing in of positions as opposed to buying larger lots. A slower price rise should be expected, not a significant one.
By the time the fundamentals support the techincals, the easy money will have been made and people will say, I’ll buy the next dip which often times doesn’t come at better prices.
I want to reiterate, the current set up has historically proven successful, but I am waiting on XOM to report the end of this month before making a move. I would like one more piece of information before I go boom-chucka-lucka.
This is based on what I know today. I have no idea what market moving news may come out between now and the end of the month which would definitely alter my prognosis at this time.”
[…]
“I only have XOM … CVX and KMI in the young folk portfolios and they can’t add to all 3 companies at once. They also can’t go in big either, so I will add in $500 - $800 lots and do it one by one.
I can’t add to anything until the first of the month anyway because I have to wait on dividends and monthly cash flows to hit the accounts.
I’ll add to XOM first because of the higher yield and the steeper discount to fair value.
[…]
So, I will not be buying energy under any circumstances for the older folks, and for the younger folks I will add in small amounts provided I accept what I see from XOM at the end of this month.
I like CVX now if someone wants to own more. I’m waiting on XOM because I can only add to one and that one has the more interesting story if things work out at earnings. If I had some cash in the young folk portfolios I would be adding to CVX now but in small amounts of $500 - $800. I would do a little more if they had a little more.”
Composición actual de la cartera de su hijo.
I am going to list the companies by position size and show the total return percentages.
Update as of 10/07/2020
A full position is $6,000.
TAXABLE ACCOUNT: (Portfolio value and return)
LMT … $8,217 … up 236.18%
DG … $9,104 … up 164.95%
ADP … $6,853 … up 160.29%
MCD … $9,709 … up 152.53%
TGT … $8,395 … up 142.76%
MA … $6,208 … up 137.76%
ABT … $6,658 … up 120.64%
JNJ … $7,310 … up 116.86%
DE … $6,166 … up 109.74%
NKE … $6,933 … up 103.98%
SYY … $6,838 … up 87.03%
V … $5,089 … up 86.42%
PEP … $5,870 … up 83.59%
HD … $6,612 … up 80.19%
CL … $4,886 … up 71.26%
NEE … $6,628 … up 69.91%
KMB … $6,145 … up 69.74%
NSC … $5,376 … up 69.58%
KO … $7,053 … up 68.47%
GIS … $5,590 … up 59.73%
SBUX … $4,951 … up 55.86%
SWK … $5,172 … up 41.73%
SO … $6.525 … up 39.24%
UL … $5,313 … up 27.55%
AAPL … $1,844 … up 26.52%
GPC … $4,723 … up 14.97%
PTY … $1,875 … up 5.08%
MSFT … $1,467 … up 3.16%
MMM … $4,287 … dn 1.91%
CVX … $2,710 … dn 20.73%
The yield on this account is 2.32%
AAPL, MSFT and PTY are newer purchases.
ROTH IRA:
LOW … $4,849 … up 127.23%
COST … $4,694 … up 109.88%
MKC … $6.608 … up 96.42%
PG … $6,317 … up 95.34%
UNP … $4,262 … up 86.95%
CAT … $2,894 … up 59.85%
FAST … $3,947 … up 42.99%
AWK … $2,953 … up 42.79%
VZ … $5,822 … up 40.63%
D … $5,670 … up 37.88%
HRL … $2,975 … up 36.84%
BF.B … $2,246 … up 36.19%
BDX … $3,453 … up 32.95%
DEO … $1,707 … up 32.08%
CTAS … $1,679 … up 31.19%
ACN … $3,141 … up 30.40%
VFC … $3,225 … up 28.59%
O … $5,474 … up 28.16%
SYK … $1,964 … up 16.14%
DUK … $5,164 … up 7.68%
WM … $1,854 … up 6.22%
WELL … $3,354 … dn 4.49%
T … $5,145 … dn 14.30%
KMI … $2,435 … dn 50.37%
XOM … $1,994 … dn 56.99%
The yield on this account is 3.07%
Dividend cuts: WELL and D (held). … Dividend suspensions: CBRL and KTB, both of which have been sold.
Como calcula que una full position es de 6k?
Coge el valor total de tu cartera y divide por el número de posiciones. Eso, para quien ya tenga una cartera en marcha, marca cuánto debería ser una posición.
Por supuesto, el valor de posición irá subiendo a medida que alcanzamos objetivos.
Por eso hay que ampliar el número de posiciones, a medida que la cartera aumenta. Por un lado porque de esa manera baja la cantidad que habría que dedicarle a una posición completa, siendo más fácil alcanzarla. Por otro, disminuye el riesgo de meter mucho dinero en unos pocos valores.
“Being to goal oriented person that I am, I am already thinking about what my goals will be for the first part of 2021.
In both the older folk and young folk portfolios, the overall objective will be to raise the value of a full position.
Many people prefer to trim overweight positions and use the proceeds to build the smaller positions, but I have found in my experience that my overweight positions have become overweight due to their performance, not me throwing more money at it. From my perspective, I want more of what’s working best for me, not less of it, so in my case I would prefer to raise the value of a full position and add more to it. It’s not just a matter of letting your winners run, it’s letting them run while to continue to add more to it.
Therefore, where a full position in the older folk portfolio is currently $200K each, I will raise it to $300K each. … In the young folk portfolio, where a full position is $6K each, I will raise the value of a full position to $12K each. That way, the $9K value that DG currently shows in the young folk portfolio, rather than being trimmed, can be added to. That position is currently up $173% and I think over time it’s going a lot higher, so I want more of it, not less of it.
I will use dividends to help build the smaller positions, not trimming winners to do so. And when I start adding to these full sized positions, I will start with those showing the highest percentage of total return gains, in other words, all companies exceeding 100% gains so far will be added to first.
I want to build on strength!”
Acerca de XOM
"When a company is showing double digit losses, I don’t throw good money after bad by averaging down until I see a catalyst indicating price may start heading higher.
I have been watching XOM for such a catalyst. A rising rig count is one of the catalysts I was looking for and that is happening, but I did say I was going to wait on the earnings report for further information that would clarify a buy signal. XOM announced earnings today and no such signal appeared.
In addressing the dividend, management said they are committed to it, however they acknowledged that “all bets are off” should current operating conditions persist through next year.
If the energy demand recovery appears likely to be pushed out beyond 2021, then Exxon will probably be forced to cut its dividend to protect its balance sheet, perhaps by the middle of next year.
Management said their plan has some “contingency and flexibility” but made it clear that taking on additional debt is not part of the equation.
In the past, management has been willing to take on debt to cover the dividend but they are clearly stating they don’t wish to do that at this time. Therefore, with management signalling the possibility of a cut with his words of “all bets are off” if certain conditions aren’t met, I will simply hold for now and wait to add additional shares."
Coherente y sensato.
Comentario para guardar y leer cada cierto tiempo.
También aplicable a @ifrobertocarlos 
"Dividend growth investing is a plan for builders and savers who understand, or want to understand, that the forces of time, modest and reliable growth, and compounding are on their side.
A dividend growth investor knows that their portfolio value will go up and down, as this can never be avoided if you are to have reasonably good long-term gains. However, a dividend growth investor won’t be bothered by the downs, because they understand why the price is down, and they know that prices will rise over the long run. Their confidence level is high because the strategy is based on common sense.
I believe that a portfolio that provides a steady and growing stream of dividend income is the best way to finance a secure retirement without having to worry about the fluctuation of stock prices.
Most investors ask, “What’s my account’s current value?” A dividend growth investor asks, "How much dividend income did my portfolio generate?"
Most investors ask, "How much was my account up or down this year? A dividend growth investor asks, "How much did my account’s income grow this year?"
Most investors ask, “Where is the stock market going this year?” Dividend growth investors don’t try to predict short-term swings in the market.
A dividend growth investor doesn’t focus on capital appreciation, because we never know when it will show up. A dividend growth investor is more concerned with the safety of the dividend and its potential for growth. A dividend growth investor understands that if a company is solid enough to continue paying and raising the dividend, capital appreciation will follow.
The key here, to my understanding, is the sentence … "A dividend growth investor understands that if a company is solid enough to continue paying and raising the dividend, capital appreciation will follow. "
I waited 10 years before showing total return numbers to show how in the longer run capital appreciation shows up.
At no point have I ever said total return wasn’t important to me, I have said it’s something I don’t worry about, or concern myself with in the short term. … Why? Because I expect it to be there over the longer term as long as I stick with higher quality companies.
Most older folks are no longer builders and savers, thus capital preservation becomes more important. Staying ahead of inflation with dividend growth is more important for others. But the dividend growth strategy itself is basically a strategy for builders and savers who optimize dividend growth through dividend reinvestment. Others are free to define the dividend growth strategy as they wish, but please don’t confuse my understanding of it with theirs."
Que gran recordatorio. Para los iniciados en la materia nos alegra ver la cuenta en verde y nos altera y entristece verla en rojo; pero al final ciertamente eso nos tiene que dar igual si las empresas que posemos pagan religiosamente.
Amen.
Que gran error.
Hay que tener un ojo en los dividendos y otro en el crecimiento, si no te puedes quedar sin dividendos y tirado como una colilla.
Ahí, radica la importancia de elegir bien las empresas, si puede ser, negocios que vayan a perdurar para siempre.
Back in the 1990’s when Berkshire Hathaway decided to offer B shares, the shares at the time were selling for $1,000 each and I bought 1 share. A couple of years later that 1 share was selling for $2,000 and I listened to others. They said to lock in the 100% gain and wait for it to fall back and buy again. So, I sold it.
BRK.B never did drop in price and kept on going even higher. It eventually had a 50 for 1 share split. Had I kept that one share it would now have been worth $56,000. …
That’s what long term investing is about. It isn’t about trimming, taking profits, trying to buy back at lower prices. Long term investing is about investing small amounts of money over a long period of time.You can’t have those long term success stories if you keep managing your portfolio like a short term trader.
Buy quality, buy small amounts, but buy often. Everything else will work its way out. You just have to trust the process and stick to it. Ignore the noise you hear on SA. Focus on your goals, not theirs. Success in investing isn’t gained in a short period of time, it takes many years, even for someone like Warren Buffett.
No matter what you pay, even if you think it’s selling at a steep discount, that doesn’t mean price won’t go lower. What I can’t do is I can’t manage share prices, but I can manage the position once I own it. There’s no law that says I have to add more if price drops. If price drops and doesn’t recover, I have managed my losses by keeping them to a minimum. I prefer to add to my winners, positions already in the green and confirming I made the right decision.
Lo cual me deja una duda. ¿A partir de que % de pérdida lo consideramos “un muerto en el armario”?
En más de una ocasión le he escuchado decir que solo se debe hacer “average down” una vez.
Over the past 11 years the S&P 500 has produced an annualized rate of return of 11.35%.
What kind of rate of return are you expecting from the market over the next 20 years? Have you given this any thought? And if so, how are you positioning yourself to do better than that?
Keep in mind, over the past 20 years the market return has been 4.98%. Is this a great performance? And if not, why are there so many people recommending index funds?
Esto debería grabármelo de alguna manera en mi cabeza. 
Where value comes into play is when the market has had a steep sell off and the stronger performing companies (as far as their business is concerned) fall along with the under-performers thus indicating that in time the market will recognize the true value of the companies that were considered as throwing the baby out with the bath water.
There are always exceptions though but I don’t invest in exceptions. I bet on the favorites as there will be more favorites succeeding than exceptions succeeding.
Valuations come into play in trading, not investing, unless you are investing large sums of money at once, what I call a one and done purchase. I don’t think anyone here invests that way. We invest small and hopefully often, and in doing so I ignore valuations and simply buy strength.