Chowder

Actualización cartera de su hijo:

"The following is the updated portfolio for my 33 year old son. A full position is $4,000. This update will not include his employer retirement fund. I am posting this to show how his positions are sized at this time. I am slowly bringing each company up to a full position.

MCD … $6837
JNJ … $6792
SYY … $6698
LMT … $6427
ADP … $6015
O … $5830
KO … $5776
VZ … $5540
D … $5130
SO … $4946
MKC … $4699
PG … $4697
UL … $4611
DUK … $4492
MO … $4469
XOM … $4253
KMB … $4251
PEP … $4232

All of the above are considered overweight positions as they are above $4,000 in value.

GIS … $3960
CVX … $3851
WELL … $3747
GPC … $3604
DG … $3603
MMM … $3561
CL … $3521
BDX … $3348
NEE … $3312
KHC … $3279
AMGN … $3272
ABT … $3260
T … $3259
VFC … $3248
MA … $3165
NSC … $3165 (no mistake, same as MA)
CBRL … $3101
V … $3024
DE … $2948
KMI … $2947
TGT … $2872
UNP … $2841
COST … $2815
NKE … $2752
LOW … $2743
HD … $2710
SBUX … $2545
HRL … $2433
SWK … $2204
IBM … $2203
CAT … $1979
DEO … $1628

As soon as he accumulates $1,000 we will add to one of the bottom 4 in position size in an attempt to bring each position up in size. Then we will continue to repeat the process."

"In my son’s portfolio, this year has been declared the Year Of The Build. I’m looking to build positions in low yielding, high dividend growth companies, with an eye for capital gains as well.

The list I am starting with includes DG … HD … NEE … NKE … MA … VI have already made the first move by adding to DG. Next up … HD.

Since I like the idea of young people investing smaller amounts of money, $1K lots is fine, I don’t have to be very concerned about valuations. I don’t need to wait for a company to go on sale. I will be adding to these companies many times over the years and I refuse to make today’s purchase the most important decision of my life based on cost. I like the company, I want to own more of the company, I added to the company.

Know what I like best? … I’m adding to a winning position. My new cost basis is just $71.16 and the price is currently at $112.22. … Anyone here would love to own DG at $71?

That position is still up 57.77% after adding these shares. In the comment above you will see the market value for DG was $3,603, it is now $4,205. I will continue to slowly build these companies as I go.

I chose DG first because I like having access to the dollar stores. DG shows same store sales growth every year regardless of economic times. They are one of the few companies that do well during recessions.

Their dividend growth ain’t too shabby either. They raised it 11% last time, due to announce next dividend payment in March."

"I wanted to share this thought with you young folks before I left and I think it is critical in setting up your mindset.

Most people look for companies they think will create the best total return, highest yield, highest dividend growth, or best valuation. … I don’t do that!!!

I focus on what a company does for a living, that has priority over anything when thinking of investing long term.

Who do you want to be business partners with?

What product or service do they they sell?

What sort of demand is there for that product or service? Is that product or service still in demand during recessions and will it stand the test of time?

This is where it all starts with me! Not the numbers, the numbers change from year to year, it’s much more important to focus on what the business does for a living, and whether their business model is sustainable. When you understand this concept, and buy into it with the companies you own, it is at that time when when you may develop some peace of mind in holding when things turn south. Every company has down cycles, they can’t be avoided, but what you need to do is buy companies that you would be willing to own regardless of what the numbers say in the short term, and be not only willing to hold during those down cycles, but to add to them as well.

I post this here, for the young folks, because the old folks are past this point. Many of them are still trying to catch up and make up. I want you to be in a position where you don’t have to make adjustments 20 or 30 years from now and no matter what happens you will still be in great shape. It starts with what a company does for a living, the numbers come later."

"The reason Graham and Buffet paid so much attention to valuation is because of the large amounts of cash being invested. There’s a big difference between investing hundreds of thousand of dollars at a time as opposed to $1,000 or $2,000 dollars at a time.

I invest in $1K lots for my son, a full position has been moved up from $4K to $6K. The goal is to eventually get to $100K for a full position.

So I ask you, what impact does valuation have today on a $1K investment in a position that you hope to see at $100K 30 years from now? It’s crazy thinking to think that today’s purchase is more critical than one made 5 years, 10 years, 20 years or more from now, especially when investing small amounts of money at a time. Am I to assume price will be lower for V 5, 10 or 20 years from now? I don’t think so, so why fret over today’s price?

In my son’s portfolio, the next man up is V. I don’t have a clue what the valuation for V is and I’m not even going to look it up. I won’t look at a chart either and certainly it’s yield doesn’t inspire excitement. I simply want him to own more V and I will purchase it next week regardless of price. When adding 4 or 5 shares at a time I am not going through the dramatics of pretending I’m the next Buffet. … Ha!

I just want more of it.

The hard part is simply keeping things in perspective, nothing more, nothing less."

Buen comentario. Siempre recalcando seguridad y la composición de la cartera.

"Speaking of watch lists. I devised my son’s list during the Great Recession when everything around us was falling apart. Most of the people involved in dividend growth investing have made their list in a bull market where a rising tide lifts all boats.

Trust me when I say this. When you devise a list during a recession, it’s a different list than one might have 5 years into a bull market. During a recession you see what’s working and what isn’t, you see how important defense is. You see how companies sensitive to the economy get crushed. You see where the dividend cuts come from in bad times, and you devise your list accordingly.

I’ve been through 3 recessions myself and the first two nearly wiped me out because I wasn’t properly positioned for recessions. Me own a utility? Are you kidding me? That’s for old folks! Yeah, I paid a price for that arrogance and I was ready for the last recession. A utility is the first company I purchase in any new portfolio, young or old.

People laughed at me for having KO in a young folk portfolio (no growth!), they weren’t laughing during the last recession.

You always hear young folks should go for growth, you have time to make up for it. I found out the hard way I needed that time after nearly getting wiped out twice. That’s why 50% of my son’s portfolio is defensive. He can go for some growth, but still needs to cover his backside. This is why I like a ratio of 50%-25%-25%Defensive 50% … This includes consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
Cyclical 25% … This includes consumer discretionary, financial’s and REIT’s.
Sensitive 25% … This includes industrial’s, energy and technology.

So, if you follow this blueprint and you want to own some industrial’s, when you are limited to 25% in the sector most sensitive to the economy, you’ll select the ones you are more comfortable with. You may only be able to own 3 or 4 unless you don’t want to own more than one energy and technology company so that you can own 5 or 6 industrial’s, you may have to keep your position sizing low, less than a full position because you don’t want too much exposure going into the next recession.

Most of the dividend cuts, suspended dividends and companies going bankrupt during the recession came from the sensitive and cyclical sectors, therefore I’m careful on how much exposure I have there.

Just some food for thought."

I am going to list the weightings of the holdings in the portfolio that started off this blog (Retirement Portfolio). These weightings are as of today and will be changing as we go along. But for now it will show you where this account stands and this account was primarily concerned with income. Keep that in mind as you note position size.

Numbers are rounded. A full position is $60K.

---------------Defensive Sector Holdings

Consumer Staples: CL … $38.7K … CLX … $56.4K … DEO … $48.3K … GIS … $72.9K … HSY … $25.4K … KHC … $46K … KMB … $42.5K… KO … $87.6K … MKC … $49.8K … MO … $59.3K … PEP … $55.6K … PG … $93K … PM … $60.9K … SYY … $36.3K … TGT … $34.7K … UL … $80.9K

Utilities: D … $135.3K … DUK … $76K … ED … $101.8K … NEE … $113.4K … SO … $111.9K … SRE … $92.4K …T … $115.5K … VZ … $111.5K … WEC … $75.9K

Healthcare: ABT … $41.2K … AMGN … $44.6K … BDX … $16.4K … JNJ … $87.5K … MDT … $40.2K … PFE … $67.6K … SYK … $17.4K

---------------Cyclical Sector Holdings:

Discretionary: CBRL … $64.3K … GPC … $83.7K … HD … $41K … LOW … $39K … MCD … $36K … VFC … $51.6K

Financial’s: BMO … $36.3K … TD … $55.1K … TROW … $18.4K

REIT’s: O … $79.5K … PSA … $28.7K … SPG … $72.5K … WELL … 85.9K … WPC … 76.7K

-------------Sensitive Sector Holdings:

Industrial’s: ADP … $28.1K … ITW … $34.3K … MMM … 83.4K

Energy: CVX … $46.3K … PSX … $11K … XOM … $68.4K

Technology: CSCO … $60.8K … IBM … $63.5K

Menudo volumen…

Acerca de una compra en O que ha hecho hoy para una de esas carteras que maneja:

"I recall buying O back on 1/24/11, I looked the date up. I purchased it at $34.41 and at the time it was overvalued. Almost every purchase I added on has been overvalued over the last 6 or 7 years.

Someone may want to say well, when it got to $70 and dropped down to $46 one would have been better off waiting. But I bought at $34 and continued to add and now here we are, back up near $70.

The point is, if you are purchasing a good company you would expect that whatever the 2 year or 5 year high is, even if you bought at the high, it’s going to go higher eventually. So I don’t play those games anymore. I had to as a trader because short term valuations are critical because you are not giving the company time to play out. Long term investing is different.

Take every company you own, go back 20 years and track what they would have done if you bought the 52 week high on every one of them, and then tell me whether you would be disappointed with the results today. Isn’t that what Mikee’s DG50 portfolio is out to show?Since it is the dividend cash flows that is now the focus, it is the dividend cash flows I am locking in, not a share price, a yield, and if the yield rises, I’ll lock that puppy in too, I’ll simply add more.I do not need the ego gratification where I allow greed to manage my decisions in order to have bragging rights on price entry. I also have no desire, now that my positions have been established, of selling those positions, thus the cap gains merely look pretty. It’s the dividend cash flows that are the backbone of our portfolios.>>> Whereas someone else needs to be more careful to ensure each dollar is invested to the best of its ability in earning Income to the maximum. <<<Only if you are stubborn enough not to look elsewhere where you can accomplish the same goal without waiting.

I don’t use the concept of “maximum” in my portfolio management. I establish guidelines of what I am looking for and anything that fits within those guidelines is a potential target. I don’t need maximum.

Example, I will be adding shares in an older folk portfolio tomorrow one way or the other. I’m hoping it’s KHC with it’s 5.2% yield but if KHC doesn’t impress me after hours today, I’m adding to UL tomorrow which has a yield of only 3.2%.

If I were looking for maximum yield, while trying to maintain a decorum of safety, I’d be investing in PTY with its yield of 9.3%.

Maximum hinders us, maximum blinds us, maximum often causes us to take more risks. I don’t need maximum.

O was suitable for increasing position size. KHC and UL need to be built up in size as they are lagging other companies. Regardless of valuations, one of those puppies is getting added to. The dividend cash flows will increase within the guidelines I established. In this portfolio a 3% yield is minimum for acceptance."

Ventas parciales en la cartera de su hijo. Vende empresas en máximos y compra de menor RPD pero mayor potencial de crecimiento.

"Allow me to blow some minds! In my son’s Roth Ira where no new cash is going in because he’s limited in what he can contribute, I am making some moves.

I have orders placed to trim D, DUK, O, PG and VZ.

I am going to add new positions tomorrow.

CTAS, ACN, WM, SYK and FAST.

Don’t like it, don’t care, it’s my mind I am losing, not yours. … Ha!

In his taxable account, I’m adding to V. … Next up in the taxable account will be NKE."

Pero hay que verlo en perspectiva. La acciones son de una cuenta que por motivos fiscales, legales o lo que sea (no conozco con detalles las Roth Ira) no puede meter más leña al fuego. Vende acciones con buena revalorización y compra otras que supone más baratas y con más proyección. Eso desde luego no es un estrategia 100% DGI; para mi es más arriesgada y exige más conocimiento del mercado y de la empresas.

Bueno, precisamente mas baratas no están las que ha comprado. A priori todas ellas están cotizando a múltiplos bastante exigentes.

Yo es que tengo la sensación que Chowder tiene el síndrome del que se aburre sin hacer nada. Siempre necesita vender posiciones, trimming por aquí, ahora me invento el beat and raise, ahora solo voy a comprar acciones por encima del 3% de RPD, ahora estas de mayor crecimiento…luego ya si, el construye toda una narrativa que parece justificar esas acciones.

Hola,

Por si es de interés para alguno. No tenía claro si ponerlo aquí o en el post del radar. Finalmente me he decantado por dejarlo en este hilo. He automatizado con el color “verde” la casilla condicionada a las 3 reglas de Chowder en el radar en mi Google sheet:

  • Regla1: =AND($I2>0,12;$BH2>0,03)
  • Regla 2: =AND($I2>0,15;$BH2<0,03)
  • Regla 3 =AND($I2>0,08;OR(EXACT($M2;“Energía”);EXACT($M2;“Electricidad”);EXACT($M2;“Gasista”);EXACT($M2;“Petrolera”)))

$I2 = Suma del DGRI5 y el RDP. Además esta es la casilla que se colorea de verde según las reglas de arriba.
$M2 = El sector, que cada uno lo ponga aquí como quiera, valdría con utility pero a mí me gusta desgranar un poco más.

Recordatorio de las reglas de Chowder

  • Rule 1: If stock has a dividend yield greater than 3%, its 5-year dividend growth rate plus its dividend yield must be greater than 12%.
  • Rule 2: If a stock has a dividend yield less than 3%, its 5-year dividend growth rate plus its dividend yield must be greater than 15%.
  • Rule 3: If a stock is a utility, its 5-year dividend growth rate plus its dividend yield must be greater than 8%.

No es muy complicado pero sé que cuando no se pilota mucho de Excel estas cosas pueden ahorrar mucho tiempo.

Un abrazo

1 me gusta

Lo explica en este comentario:

“My son can’t add to his Roth unless I trim and buy. He’s limited as to how much he can put in his Roth so I don’t know how else to make that account grow. His taxable account is twice as large as his Roth and getting larger, so this is what I came up with.”

This is an example of people not listening. I establish a goal every year and the goal changes from year to year. One year was the year of the yield. Another year it was the year of bringing up positions in size. This year has been declared as the year of the build. The year of the build now entails two objectives. Building positions of size in the taxable account, building positions out in the Roth since no new funds are going into it.
Each year I am moving a position from the taxable account to the Roth. I have talked about this previously. This year I moved DUK over so I can’t add more money to the Roth. I want to build the Roth, in the year of the build, and I don’t know of any other way to do so.
I have stated many times that I am flexible. I am willing to take a dividend cash flow cut this year because last year was so strong, up over 20%. I have also stated many times that once the foundation was set I could then go for growth. I want both, I want balance … in this portfolio. … I have been very consistent on this mindset.

“Parece” que describes a un vende humo.

Pues precisamente. Las narrativas que monta, los títulos que da a cada año siempre suenan super lógicos y racionales, pero se van contradiciendo con planteamientos previos. La gente se lo hace ver y el pues empieza a echar en cara a la gente que no lee o que no escucha.

Yo no diría que Chowder sea un vendehumos, ni mucho menos. Lo que creo que le pasa es que tiene mucha pasta, su hijo también, y se aburre como una ostra en su casa. O su hobby es este de montarse sus historietas y sus películas y contarlas a la gente.

O se estará cambiando de religión, también puede ser. Es que la estrategia de dividendos es muy aburrida y no da juego a todo el arte literario desplegado.

A mi de toda la última época de Chowder los posts mas acertados me parecen los que trata la psicología de la inversión, tiene varios bastante brillantes. Pero de estrategia o configuración de cartera cada día me parecen mas incosistentes y poco útiles.

Ya verás que risas el día que se descubra que el tal Chowder es en realidad un adolescente imberbe que vive con sus padres en Idaho.

Fíjate que yo esto lo he pensado alguna vez. Un troleo nivel máximo.

Yo como no sigo a Chowder solo leo lo que poneis por aqui

Pero alguien que bautiza con su nombre una regla que no es suya ya habla de un ego desmesurado cosa que no suele ser muy recomendable en el mundo de las inversiones

"I will make moves in this young folk portfolio I wouldn’t dream of doing in other portfolios, trimming D is an excellent example.+

By the way, the trims were $1K each, a trim, not a crew cut, and the buys were $1K each. Not the end of the world."

[…]

"When I started this portfolio out, I had 3 questions that needed to be answered.

  1. How much do you need?
  2. When do you need it?
  3. How sure are you it will be there?

Nothing I have done has changed the answer to the first 2 questions. The objectives are always the same. What does change, and I have made several changes over the years, are the tactics used to achieve the answer to number 3. Those changes may be due to market conditions, falling behind schedule or being ahead, or maybe someone here shares some thoughts that make me go hmm.

Kolpin commented she owns 68 companies and wouldn’t feel comfortable with less than 50. I too don’t feel comfortable with this particular portfolio owning less than 50. I got to thinking that how many more companies going forward may do what KMI or KHC have done? I decided I wanted a buffer number but haven’t decided on what that number will be yet.

Miguel and I have had discussions on the need for young folks to have some growth in their portfolio and I have always said I wanted some of that growth to balance off with our foundational companies. He then went on to make some suggestions.

I was already building V, MA, HD and NKE in the taxable account for growth, but wanted some more growth in the Roth Ira where most of his high yield, low growth companies are…So there you have it, some of the reasons for this most recent adjustment in the tactics used to insure the amount of money needed, when it is needed, will be there.

I will take a dividend cash flow hit this year due to building out low yielding, higher growth type companies, but since retirement is 35 years away, it’s a hit he can take this year. I can get back to yield next year."