Chowder

Estrategia Referentes
276

" I have no interest whatsoever in the RMD discussion and I turn 69 in two months"

Queda Chowder para rato, y si fuera adolescente imberbe, todavía más ??

¿Qué es RMD?

What is a Required Minimum Distribution - RMD

A required minimum distribution is the amount that owners of a traditional, SEP or SIMPLE IRA account and qualified plan participants must begin withdrawing from their retirement accounts by April 1 following the year they reach age 70 1/2. The retiree must then withdraw the RMD amount each subsequent year based on the current RMD calculation.

Understanding Required Minimum Distribution - RMD

These required minimum distributions are determined by dividing the retirement account’s prior year-end fair market value by the applicable distribution period or life expectancy. Some qualified plans allow certain participants to defer the start of their RMDs until they actually retire, even if they are older than age 70 1/2. Qualified plan participants should check with their employers to determine whether they are eligible for this deferral. Also, Roth IRAs do not require withdrawals until after the owner dies.

Calculation Example

It should be noted that an investor is allowed to withdraw at least the required minimum distribution but may withdraw above that amount. If an investor wants to withdraw 100 percent of the account in the first year, that withdrawal is legal.

When calculating a required minimum distribution for any given year, it is always wise to confirm on the Internal Revenue Services website that you are using the latest calculation worksheets. Different situations call for different calculation tables. For example, IRA account holders whose spouse is the account’s only beneficiary and is more than 10 years younger than the account holder use one table, while IRA account holders whose spouse is the account’s only beneficiary and the same age as the account holder use a different table.

The RMD calculation involves three steps.

  1. Write down the account’s balance as of Dec. 31 of the previous year.
  2. Find the distribution factor listed on the calculation tables that corresponds to your age on your birthday of the current year. For most people, this factor number ranges from 27.4 all the way down to 1.9. As a person gets older, the factor number goes down.
  3. Divide the account balance by the factor number to find the RMD.

For example, say it is May 15 and the account holder is 74 years old and their birthday is on Oct. 1. Their IRA is worth $225,000 and had a balance of $205,000 on Dec. 31 of the previous year. The distribution factors from his relevant IRS table are 23.8 for age 74 and 22.9 for age 75.

The required minimum distribution is calculated as:

RMD = $205,000 / 22.9 = $8,951.97A Special Case: Inherited IRAs

Generally, with an inherited IRA, an account holder must take annual distributions regardless of their age. Failure to take the distribution results in a 50 percent tax penalty on the RMD.

277

No puedo estar más de acuerdo.

Esto es generalizado en blogs, foros y redes sociales varias. Suelo fiarme más de la gente que hace comentarios puntuales de calidad e interés, que de los que se “suben a la tribuna” regularmente para soltar su “speech” lleno de statements varios y verdades inmutables.

278

Vende KHC en la cartera de su hijo. Cambia por AWK t BF-B (Alcohol).

"I see where S&P has put KHC on credit notice, thinking of taking it down to BBB-. I decided to cut my losses in this portfolio and put the money elsewhere.

Sold KHC and placed the proceeds into BF.B and AWK."

279

"I am going to advise my son this week on how to manage his portfolio. Keep in mind he has no interest in following the market … zero, niltch, nada.

How do you advise someone like this? It’s simple actually and maybe a concept people who do follow their investments should use.

I’m telling him to look at the companies he owns, currently he owns 54 of them. Out of those he has a green to red ratio of 50-4. I’m telling him to focus on the green. Whichever green company he owns that is the smallest in market value, add to it to bring it up in size with others. If a company is red, ignore it, no new money goes in until it turns green.

How’s that for research?

This does not need to be complicated, the average 7th grade student can do this until they decide to be too smart and try to be the next Warren Buffett."

280

Actualización cartera de su hijo tras los últimos cambios:

"PROJECT $3 MILLION
This is my son’s portfolio as it stands today.
TAXABLE ACCOUNT: … A full position is $6,000.
ADP … $6,870 … up 265.60%
LMT … $6,451 … up 175.42%
MCD … $7,557 … up 131.31%
SYY … $6,312 … up 115.17%
JNJ … $6,713 … up 99.15%
ABT … $3,837 … up 87.89%
PEP … $4,614 … up 83.27%
KO … $5,887 … up 75.51%
DG … $4,579 … up 71.80%
MA … $4,273 … up 63.66%
DE … $3,652 … up 62.23%
CL … $3,735 … up 58.46%
NSC … $4,728 … up 52.47%
V … $3,963 … up 45.17%
HD … $3.937 … up 37.97%
KMB … $4,955 … up 36.87%
CVX … $4,513 … up 35.67%
GPC … $4,099 … up 34.05%
GIS … $4,626 … up 33.90%
NKE … $4,694 … up 33.12%
SBUX … $4,210 … up 32.51%
TGT … $4,272 … up 23.54%
SO … $5,659 … up 22.61%
SWK … $3,808 … up 22.52%
UL … $4,950 … up 18.93%
AMGN … $3,426 … up 17.13%
MMM … $4,228 … up 14.33%
NEE … $4,614 … up 7.56%
CBRL … $3.020 … up 1.06%
Total Market Value … $130,060 … Account Yield 2.53%

ROTH IRA:
O … $5,061 … up 56.52%
LOW … $3,292 … up 56.44%
MKC … $5,178 … up 55.69%
UNP … $3,396 … up 55.63%
DEO … $1,941 … up 55.10%
CAT … $2,498 … up 46.98%
PG … $4,608 … up 45.47%
COST … $3,158 … up 42.25%
VFC … $3,724 … up 41.65%
VZ … $5,076 … up 41.29%
BDX … $3.662 … up 40.37%
D … $4,508 … up 39.13%
WELL … $4,385 … up 29.91%
HRL … $2,526 … up 17.56%
ACN … $1,253 … up 10.48%
FAST … $1,598 … up 9.40%
DUK … $4,179 … up 5.10%
SYK … $1,174 … up 4.59%
XOM … $4,639 … up 4.51%
BF.B … $1,065 … up 4.03%
WM … $1,124 … up 3.13%
CTAS … $1.032 … up 2.28%
KMI … $3,632 … dn 23.03%
IBM … $2,605 … dn 12.97%
T … $3,673 … dn 7.83%
AWK … $833 … dn 1.26%
Total Market Value $80,009 … Account Yield 3.04%

Total Portfolio Value … $218,069 … Does not include work related TSP."

“The instructions for managing this portfolio are simple.
1) Add only to companies in the green.
2) When looking to add, add to the smallest position by market value
3) work on building each position up in time as long as it is green.
He is not contributing to his Roth at this time, his monthly cash contributions are going into his taxable account. Everything in his taxable account is green, so every company is eligible to be added to.
Since CBRL is the smallest position by market value in the taxable account, CBRL gets added to next Monday or Tuesday (next man up), as soon as his mid-month contribution hits the account.
This is an easy peasy way to manage a portfolio for someone not willing to try and be a Warren Buffet Jr.
Once I get every position up to $4,000, I may then add to the positions showing 100% returns or better. I do want more of those since they are doing so well. But, that’s later in the year. The short term focus is getting everything up to $4K in the taxable account.”

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282

Ejemplo de su modo de actuar.

“I am constantly asked how I play the news when adding to companies, and I think I have a good example, not perfect, but good.
If anyone owns COST, or wishes to own COST, this is where I ignore valuations.
Costco reports 7% March U.S. comp
Costco (NASDAQ:COST) reports sales increased 7.4% in March to $13.87B.
Comparable sales were up 6.9% in the U.S., 3.8% in Canada and 1.6% in other international markets.
E-commerce sales rose 20.6% Y/Y
COST continues to show great growth numbers and as long as those numbers continue to grow, valuations don’t mean nuthin’ here.
My son doesn’t have any cash to invest at this time, but if he did, I would be adding to COST off this report.
When companies are performing better than expected, I want more of them”

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283

“Please note, the young folk portfolio this blog is all about is labeled Project $3 Million. That means $3 Million in market value and when thinking in terms of market value, that does mean capital gains are critical to the success of this portfolio long term.
Now, I can’t control what share prices do, thus have very little control on managing market value. I simply have to trust that the companies I purchase will turn out to be good long term investments.
I can control dividend cash flows to a great degree, so I do focus on what I can control, and as long as this portfolio continues to generate double digit cash flow growth, share prices (market value) will follow along at some point. It’s simply a matter of me being patient and sometimes taking a little pain.
At the end of 2018, in order for this portfolio to remain on schedule for the $3 million at age 65, it had to have a total market value of $168,795.15. … It had $204,167.06 so it is ahead of schedule.
In fact, this portfolio, as of April 8 of this year, the total portfolio value was $235,070.66 when I include his TSP.
The end of 2021 is supposed to show a balance of $235,536.37 to be on schedule for the $3 million so this portfolio is basically almost 3 years ahead of schedule.
Use the following link to determine how I came up with these numbers.
He had $42,205 at the time, I used an 8.25% annual growth rate for 40 years and contributing $500 per month. He had 40 years at the time.
Check the numbers out for yourself.www.planningtips.com/…”

284

Pues haciendo números (que bonitas son estas calculadoras para hacer castillos en el aire), a los 61 años puedo llegar a una bonita cifra, que me permita retirarme antes de tiempo. Por supuesto, si todo va bien.
¿Y vosotros?

285

Seguimos con el concepto AÑADIR EN VERDE.

“I have to build something, I’m not going to sit on my hands and not put cash to work. You look at stock charts, I don’t.
I look at O and it is up 55%, it is a $5K sized position, I need to add to it. If I add at today’s price the new cost basis is still well below where people would be willing to pick up a new position.
Would you buy O at $50? … The cost basis for this position, in this portfolio is $42.
This is why I add to positions in the green. I can ignore valuations and still have the higher cost basis after adding well below where price stands today and well below what anyone here would pay for a new position.
What would you pay for JNJ? It is selling at $135 and the cost basis in this portfolio is $68. I can add quite a few shares at today’s price and the new cost basis is still well below any price you would consider if starting a new position.
This is why I add to companies in the green.”

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286

BEAT & RAISE.

“In a down market everything goes down, so companies that are announcing a beat and raise will also see their price decline but just not as much as companies that miss on earnings.
In a down market you also have more options. You will have more to choose from when looking from a valuation point of view.
Keep in mind, and I don’t think people are getting this yet, I’m using the beat and raise concept when purchasing overvalued companies. If a company is fairly valued, or selling at a discount, I don’t need a beat and raise, they can be purchased at any time.
Where most people are reluctant to what they call over paying for an asset, I will overpay as long as the company can justify it through their performance. That performance has to be a beat and raise.”
[…]
“When following the beat and raise idea, JPM would be a good position to add today…I guess.
Beats on EPS, Revenues. Stock is up >3% in PM.”

287

Yo tengo que llegar hasta los 65 para llegar a esas cifras.
En cualquier caso, estas calculadoras para mí son poco útiles por un doble motivo:

  • al ser autónomo es complicado predecir los ingresos de los años futuros, y por tanto, el dinero destinado al ahorro.
  • Tampoco es fácil predecir los gastos de los próximos años.

Pero está bien recordar la importancia del interés compuesto

288

Una vez más, vuelta al concepto “Beat and Raise”.
Muchos no lo hacemos, pero dado que estos días se está centrando en actualizar carteras y explicar otra vez determinados conceptos, lo pongo.

" A word about the beat and raise concept. Those of you who have been around for awhile know that for the last couple of years I have been pounding the table on adding to current positions based on the beat and raise concept regardless of valuations. What this means is that a company comes out and announces they did better than expected on both earnings and revenue and then announce they expect to do even better going forward.
When I see a beat and raise, most of the time the price will gap up at the open, often times at least 3% or more, sometimes 7% or 8% and I will still jump all over it. In fact, if the price doesn’t gap up at the open, I’m skeptical.
My thought process here is that if the company is doing better than expected, and the market recognizes that by making the price gap up at the open, the market is telling you that whatever valuation you thought was correct was wrong . The company is now worth more regardless of what your hindsight numbers show. Those of you who can’t grasp this concept have no idea on what you are missing out on as you continue to hang on to your losers praying to the gods to make you whole again.
The portfolio this blog is about has me showing a 16.48% annual return over the last year compared to the S&P 500 with a 9.5% return.
What I haven’t shown is the results of the two IRA’s, which do not have as much dividends to work with so the buying activity is slower. Buying activity actually lowers my percentage due to averaging up on cost basis.
One IRA with a value of $260K was up 18.73% over the past year to the S&P 500 9.5%, and the other IRA with a value of $852K is up 21.96% to the S&P 500 9.5%.
So people! Although every beat and raise does not work out the way I plan them too, it’s clearly obvious to me that this is one of the best tactics in my tool box. Results clearly show that, but it does have to come with a bullish market environment which we have, and that is why I have always discussed that we need to understand the condition of the market.Your value type tactics will work better in a market correction. In a bull market, I take advantage of momentum . Momentum comes off the beat and raise. I will be showing real time examples of this in the coming weeks as earnings season starts soon and all I am going to buy is that momentum. No other tactic I have ever used is as good as the beat and raise."

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289

En el hilo “A retirement portfolio” sigue vendiendo las empresas de tabaco. Y aquí viene lo interesante:
-Cambia PM por KMI. Empresa que se llevó buena corrección por recorte de dividendo hace un par de años. Actualmente ya no es una MLP, sino una corporación, por lo que se nos aplicará una retención de 15% sobre dividendos (en vez de casi 40%).
KMI precio actual 20-21$, RPD 4% y aumentos de dividendo de dos cifras los dos últimos años. Se espera beneficios recurrentes y mejora de su calidad crediticia por parte de S&P.
Centrada en transporte de petróleo pero también NG, LNG cosa que me parece importante porque creo que en los próximos años el gas va a tener cada vez más importancia.
Yo no la llevo en cartera porque ya tengo ENB, pero es una opción para quien no tenga una empresa de este tipo, o al menos dejarla en el radar.

“I don’t need you traumatized people who are still upset over being Kindered to respond, I was one, I was there, I don’t need you people rehashing old crap. I’m looking forward and in looking forward I see a dying business in tobacco (not holding out for marijuana) and I see KMI as a growing business.
The new dividend increase puts KMI above a 5% yield and I see KMI increasing the dividend again next year at about 25% which would put it above PM’s dividend growth.
Those of you who want to quote me dividend safety scores, they are lagging indicators, not leading, and as I said, I’m looking forward. I fully expect that KMI will continue to see their credit rating and dividend safety scores rise and I expect to be in front of it, not chasing it as others will do in time.”
[…]
"< "With approximately 70,000 miles of natural gas pipelines, Kinder Morgan owns an interest in or operates the largest natural gas network in North America. We serve the major consuming markets of the United States, and our pipelines transport approximately *** 40 percent of the natural gas consumed in the U.S.*** "
[…]
“KMI vs ENB
I’m trying to look forward. KMI is expected to get a credit upgrade which will bring it on par with ENB. However, what is more important to me than an S&P rating is future earnings power and KMI is expected to almost double ENB in earnings going forward. Do not underestimate the power of earnings.
And that is why I am trying to position myself to get the puck.”
[…]
“ANALISIS M*
Analyst Note 04/18/2019
We are reaffirming our $19.50 per share fair value estimate after Kinder Morgan announced first-quarter earnings that grew 15% from the first quarter of 2018 and a quarterly dividend hike to $0.25 per share. We are reaffirming our no-moat and stable moat trend ratings.
Management’s dividend hike represents the third step in its three-year plan to reach $1.25 per share annualized by 2020. We think shareholders should be impressed by management’s execution of its dividend growth plan set out in 2017 while improving its credit metrics. We think Kinder’s 5% yield at the new dividend rate as of mid-April is attractive relative to other pipeline companies and utilities.
Management reported $0.60 per share distributable cash flow in the first quarter, providing plenty of cover for the higher dividend. Results are mostly on track to meet our full-year estimates. Management said full-year EBITDA could come in slightly below its $7.8 billion budget primarily due to regulatory settlements and a slight in-service delay at the Elba LNG facility. However, the cash flow outlook is on budget.
A slight drop in EBITDA relative to budget would not have a material impact on our fair value estimate, especially since the settlements remove substantially all of its risk of rate cuts related to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s so-called 501(g) policy proposal in March 2018. We assumed Kinder maintained substantially all of its current rate levels given the high customer demand for access to its pipelines.
We expect an imminent announcement on Kinder Morgan’s plan to reconsolidate or sell its 70% stake in Kinder Morgan Canada. A sale could raise close to $1 billion of cash; a reconsolidation could cost $400 million. Neither would have a material impact on our fair value estimate.
We expect Kinder Morgan will easily finance its $6.1 billion of planned growth projects during the next two years without issuing equity.”

290

“I am interested in building what we own. I want to raise the value of a full position and I want to purge companies I’m unwilling to build in size. This is why I started out with more companies than needed. I wanted to see who worked out, who didn’t, and then get rid of who didn’t.
The moves I have been making have not only shown 40% dividend growth year over year, but the total return year over year is double that of the S&P 500 Index.
So, where others seem to think I should have stayed put, my results would indicate otherwise. I have improved the portfolio over the last year and I did so because I was able to recognize the condition of the market and take advantage of it. Staying put would have had me missing out on opportunities I thought were staring me in the face.”
[…]
“Each person has to decide for themselves what risks they are willing to take. I don’t allow others to determine my risk level for me and I would support anyone who decides to keep MO, PM or BA. I’m just not interested. If any of the people I helped wanted to keep them, I would have helped them manage the positions, show when to add and continue to build, but again, people need to put their money they they feel the most comfortable.”

292

“A word about core positions. The problem we have is that people have a different definition of what the word core should mean with an equity portfolio.
In my mind, if a company is no longer growing, it should no longer remain a core holding.
When I talked about core holdings I was referring to building positions of size, regardless of valuations as long as I was seeing top and bottom line growth. When I stop seeing that, the company is no longer core and I am willing to sell it. I did just that today. I sold a previous core holding in MO. I’m just not seeing the growth aspect.
You folks interpret the information any way you wish, it’s your money!”

293

“Just a thought about portfolio management. It’s not directed at anyone, I’m just thinking aloud and sharing those thoughts here.
When managing a portfolio, one of the easiest things to do is to trim some profits when you think a position is overvalued. The position has done well, valuations have risen, the position is now overweight and the easiest thing to do is to take it back to a full position. That’s a tactic the average 7th grade student could accomplish.
The hardest part about portfolio management is how you handle companies facing headwinds or companies showing losses. People may know instinctively they should probably sell a position but are afraid that once they do, the company may turn around.
This is where skill comes into play because there is a lot of psychological stuff to overcome here, the first being that you have to admit to yourself that you screwed up and made a bad decision. Selling confirms that.
I don’t care how good you think you are, you are going to make bad decisions, and the reason your decisions are going to be bad is because you don’t control the company. You are not in the board room when decisions are made, you don’t have a clue what is going on within the company. All you did was get information to help you make a good decision to begin with.
I have learned to mentally handle that stress and it’s very simple. I made a good decision when I bought, I simply had no control over what the market or company did. I wasn’t wrong to buy, it just didn’t work out. Where it ends up being my stupidity is when I don’t know when to sell when it isn’t working out as planned. That is what separates winners from losers.
If your instincts tell you that you should probably sell, then sell. Most of you folks have done a nice job of developing your skills in the buying area, maybe it’s time to develop your selling skills when you think you should sell instead of hiding under the blanket of I hate selling. Well, I hate losses!!! … Ha!”
[…]
“Your instincts have to be based on company performance or lack of it. If a company is in trouble, you should have some idea if you do any research at all.
I believe too many people don’t do enough research, they simply listen to what others here are doing and run to see the safety scores.
Too many people have stated they ignore analyst reports and I suggest they don’t know what they are talking about. They are focused on the analysts calls not their research. I ignore the calls but as Ted said yesterday, it’s the narrative that is golden and it’s that narrative when confirmed by several sources that I act.
Too many people looking for short cuts and that’s why I no longer present the research I do. I want people to do their own work as opposed to relying on others who did.”

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294

Seguramente Chowder tenga razón, quien soy yo en comparación con un tipo que tiene un pedazo de cartera construida en que se yo cuantos años.
Pero a mi me da más tranquilidad el cuidado por el accionista de Las tabaqueras que KMI que pego un recorte de cuidado hace bien poco.

295

Vash o Chowder? Solo puede quedar uno :rofl:

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296

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297

“I think it is important to remember that a market correction may adjust share prices but not your share count. It is the number of shares that you own that determines your dividend cash flows, not market prices. Therefore a portfolio worth $1 million is still throwing off the same level of dividend cash flows if the portfolio value drops to $600K. The income levels are not affected by market action. Only your ignorance can do that by selling income generating assets.
Get off share price action folks or you will undermine your your own process. Stupid is as stupid does!”
e[…e]
“I hold no more than 2 months worth of dividend distributions, all other cash goes to work. The market may correct my portfolio value but the market does not correct the number of shares I own. My dividends are based on shares, not market value.
I had two dividend cuts and one freeze during the Great Recession. WFC and PFE cut the dividend, BMY froze it. Maybe PAYX froze it too, I can’t recall and don’t feel like looking it up.
The point is, all other companies continued to raise the dividend and my dividend cash flows grew during the Great Recession even though my portfolio value dropped nearly 40%. … That’s when I knew going all in on dividend investing was the way to go.”

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