Que cifras! Son mareantes!! 15.000$ por mes en dividendos!!
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“As your portfolio value rises, you need to get used to the idea of higher numbers. Where I used to have $60K as a full position in one portfolio, I have most of those now up to $120K.
If you don’t get used to the concept of higher numbers, then you will have to own several hundred smaller positions. … I go with what’s working.
If other opportunities arise, sell your losers or trim from the companies that aren’t doing much. This trimming of winners blows my mind since history has shown that your top 4 or 5 companies will produce about 80% of your total return over time with a portfolio of 20-30 companies. … Think about it!
As to BA, you could have trimmed or sold the first day the bad news came out, I sold a couple of days later. I locked in over 100% returns in the portfolio I had BA in.
Portfolio management always should have the condition of the market in mind, and when I say condition of the market, that includes companies on an individual basis.
Here’s a concept that might be new to some here! … Keep your winners and trim your losers to take advantage of other opportunities. … Dummy Investing 101.”
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Gran alegato a favor de la concentracion
Al final me va a caer bien el tal Chowder
Hombre, el problema es adivinar cuáles van a ser las mejores 4-5 posiciones de la cartera de aquí a 20 años.
Si yo lo supiera, está claro que me quedaba ya solo con ellas 
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Tal cual.
Lo de recortar perdedores, ¿perdedores en qué plazo? La teoría es fácil, pero el futuro no es tan fácil de adivinar.
Estoy a favor de concentrar. Ojalá tuviera 1 acción el cartera y ya. Pero la buena.
Eso es lo que no sé.
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Ya se ha hablado otras veces.
-¿para qué diversificamos?. Para no concentrar el riesgo.
-¿Por qué construir posiciones de tamaño similar en una cartera de 30-50 posiciones?. Porque no sabemos el futuro ni cuales serán las ganadoras del mercado de aquí a 20 años. Y si partimos de posición de tamaño igual, más podremos aprovechar el potencial del retorno total de las ganadoras (cosa que no ocurre si se produce en una pequeña posición).
-En el caso de B&H, que nunca ha vendido. Las perdedoras se han quedado por el camino y las ganadoras son las que dominan su cartera. Es la evolución de una cartera diversificada hacia la concentración.
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Bueno, pues vuelve a abrir el blog gente mayor (éste con comentarios, de momento).
La cartera vale unos 5 M. Por si alguien quería sumar todo.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728729-chowder/5354404-older-folk-portfolio
"Older Folk Portfolio
Summary
Income.
More income.
And more income.
Age: Mid 60’s.
Primary Objective: To build an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing.
Income Objective: $200,000 per year.
Current Income: $180,000 per year.
Strategy: To build positions of size. I add to companies monthly regardless of market conditions, to put cash to work as quickly as possible creating more income.
I have combined the taxable account and tax deferred for the sake of simplicity as most companies listed below are in both types of accounts. Additionally, by combining the two you get to see the total size of each position.
Updated as of 9/21/19.
SO … $220,633
D … $210,478
O … $210,143
WEC … $183,512
T … $181,368
VZ … $175,699
DUK … $171,740
PG … $169,883
SRE … $157,927
NEE … $157,101
PEP … $151,187
KO … $147,338
KMB … $141,785
ED … $141,686
WPC … $134,139
JNJ … $124,958
GIS … $120,027
PSA … $109,231
CVX … $106,123
VTR … $99,084
TGT … $99,185
WELL … $98,303
TD … $96,608
SPG … $96,318
MMM … $95,267
UL … $94,033
XOM … $86,665
BMO … $83,253
CBRL … $81,385
GPC … $80,301
CSCO … $76,403
KMI … $76,295
IBM … $74,771
MDT … $66,224
CLX … $59,910
HD … $59,762
MCD … $59,487
LOW … $57,121
CL … $51,313
XEL … $50,958 (new position)
NNN … $47,919 (new position)
SYY … $41,722
ITW … $36,904
PAYX … $25,163 (new position)
KTB … $2,843 (result of a spin off from VFC)
CEF’S
DNP … $67,325
PTY … $58,194
UTG … $56,931
ETO … $30,259
The amount of utility company exposure in this portfolio is 25.5% and I may take it up to 30%. In my opinion, utilities are the backbone of a portfolio looking for relatively safe and reliable dividends."
[…]
“As to building positions versus adding to new positions, it’s based on earnings results. In this portfolio I add to companies, regardless of position size, who beat on earnings and revenue and then guide future earnings higher. I refer to it as the “beat and raise” concept.
When market conditions change, and the market is in the midst of a double digit decline, I will then look to valuations to decide who to add to. Current market conditions don’t allow for many companies selling at a discount to fair value, most of the companies in this portfolio are considered fully valued or overvalued, but rather than sit on cash, which doesn’t help hit the income objective, I add to companies performing better than expect. When companies are performing better than expected, fair value numbers are adjusted upward and I’m ahead of the curve when they are.”
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Me he perdido. Aquí dice que las posiciones que consideraba completas en 60 milm ahora están valoradas en hasta 120 mil dólares. Sin embargo en la última actualización hay muchas empresas con una valoración muy superior a los 120 mil.
¿estamos hablando de lo mismo?
¿el mercado las ha llevado mucho más arriba pero él no acostumbra a vender?
Lo que quiere decir es que conforme sigas construyendo posiciones, con el tiempo acabarás con valoraciones de vértigo en ellas.
Gestiona varias carteras y en unas la posición completa de empresa son 60K, pero en otras carteras de más capital (la que ha colgado ahora son 5M), hay mucho mayores.
No recuerdo qué cartera puso en el antigua blog de “old folks”, quizá esta sea otra diferente.
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"What difference does it make how much a company is down during a recession? The move is temporary so why should I be concerned about a temporary drop in prices as long as my dividend income continues to flow?
Most people here are going to panic, they are going to focus on those temporary falling prices. Hell, they freak out now over the potential of falling prices.
O was my largest decliner during the last recession but that makes sense since real estate was taking a hit. I monitored the situation, saw the occupancy rate was still in the 90’s and I managed the position to where I added more and O came back stronger than ever. Instead of focusing on falling share prices, I focused on company performance.
I see people here holding industrial REIT’s, what do you think happens to them in a recession? What about retail REIT’s? If SPG is struggling in a booming economy what do you think happens in a recession?
Hold the right companies and you don’t have to worry about falling prices, they eventually turn back around and head higher."
gracias por tu respuesta Luis.
El concepto lo entendí, ya que llevo unos cuantos años invirtiendo y a mí me ha pasado en varias ocasiones. E incluso me ha pasado tener que acostumbrarme al volumen total invertido, y descansar por un tiempo para asumirlo antes de continuar invirtiendo.
A lo que me refería es a que no me encajan los números. Pero si tiene varias carteras gestionadas, será lo que dices, que este último ejemplo sea de otra.
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¡Enhorabuena!. Entonces seguro que este concepto lo tienes más interiorizado que muchos de nosotros 
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"When a company we already own has a double digit dividend increase, it gets added to regardless of position size.
I may have a full position size but it’s a limitation I placed on myself and I can change it if I want to because I don’t have a limit size on the amount of dividends we receive.
Double digit dividend increases get added to with no hesitation."
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Me pasa a mi y tengo una cartera enana…
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Pregunta:
“the question I had is how u emotionally manage the fear of another 2008?
Obviously, you do not think it is is an issue because u are still buying and have no plans to stop; but for those of us who have some fear of the valuation/ interests rate etc; do u have any advice?”
Respuesta:
“I think it comes down to goals. My goal is to build an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing. In order to insure that goal is achieved, I must buy on a regular basis regardless of market conditions and regardless of valuations.
When the market corrects, and the portfolio value declines, the dividend cash flows continue to rise. The market can correct share prices but it can’t take away my shares, and it’s my shares that generate the dividend cash flows.
In other words, the amount of dividend cash flows a million dollar portfolio generates today is the same amount of dividend cash flows generated if the portfolio value drops to $600K. There is no change in my income flows.
As to valuations, I’m not investing for today, I’m investing for the future, and the true value of a company is in the future. If I didn’t think a company I owned wasn’t going to be worth more years from now than it is today, I wouldn’t own it.
I don’t own a single company where I ask myself if I overpaid 15 years ago. All I care about is hitting the income objectives. It’s the income that provides for us in retirement.
Now those that wish to make capital preservation part of their objectives, they have a problem. They can’t control what the market does, but I can control whether my dividend cash flows rise or not. So, I focus on what I can control, not what I can’t.
I learned that in overcoming fear, the brain is not always subject to logic, but is always subject to action. So, I take action every month. Something is going to be purchased regardless of what is going on in the markets.”
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Me ha llamado la atención leer tres comentarios suyos acerca del momento de ciclo que estamos o posible cambio del mismo.
1)“I’m building consumer staples and utilities, not trimming them. Added PEP to several portfolios this week.
As the economy starts to slow down worldwide, we may start seeing more volatility, similar to this week and I want to be sure defensive positions are loaded up for bear.
I will be adding to JNJ as well this month.”
2)“The purpose of going defensive, for me at least, isn’t about price volatility, it’s about companies that sell a product or service that people must or will use in spite of a recession. This aspect alone provides ballast for revenues which helps protect cash flows, which insures dividends will be paid and even raised.
Of all the companies I follow, only one defensive company rated BBB+ or better lowered their dividend during the recession and that was PFE. PFE cut the dividend to raise cash for the purchase of Wythe.
All other dividend cuts came from cyclical’s and companies sensitive to the economy, with financials getting hit hard the most.
Those safe dividend scores people see today, will be adjusted lower when market conditions change. You can count on it.”
3)" I adjust as market conditions adjust. I have said many times, the condition of the market determines my actions.
I sense market conditions slowing down. I also sense people becoming more defensive. Maybe the Fed continues to drop rates and that will boost the market a little more, but the time to build the ark is before the rain.
I’m not as concerned with the younger folks, they have time to navigate the rough waters that will come in time, but insuring those income needs for the older folks, regardless of market conditions is a priority. When the recession comes, it won’t be total return bailing the older folks out, it will be income. The older folks get to board that ark first."
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Seguramente Pepsi no recorte el dividendo en la proxima crisis pero si sus beneficios se estancan y pasa de PER 26 a 16 comprarlas ahora no te va a proteger de nada.
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Quizá sí, quizá no.
Hace 1 años y medio salió del sector tabaco.
Le han preguntado y aquí su respuesta.
“I am not interested in MO but will not refute those who are.
From my perspective, MO is only going to continue to be under political pressure in the years to come. This creates too much uncertainty for me.
The last time MO, then PM, faced incredible political pressure, they also owned quite a few consumer staple companies that helped bail them out. They have spun all of those companies off thus lack the assets to cover their backside.
MO is hanging their hat on marijuana and that’s something I am not interested in at this time because I think it is still speculative.
I think people are chasing yield and using the past to help them feel safe in owning MO, but they don’t have those past assets anymore thus MO is now a speculative play to me and I don’t speculate on income assets.
I may have the wrong view of MO at this time and that’s okay with me. I need more certainty going forward before I would have an interest, as opposed to counting on the past to repeat and speculating.
Where others will look at yield, look at the dividend history, look at current dividend safety ratings, none of that means anything to me unless I like what a company does for a living first. That’s my number one criteria. I have to like what a company does for a living before I’ll even look at anything else, and at this time, I don’t like what MO is doing for a living. Too much uncertainty for me.”
Yo, sigo comprando.
Creo en la infinita capacidad del ser humano en caer en vicios nocivos y también en la avaricia sin fondo de políticos que buscan recaudaciones eternas.
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