La tienes a menos 12% vs hace un mes…
Sí, pero después de verla tocar los 140$, pillarlas a 160$ no es tan atractivo… el sesgo de anclaje es lo que tiene. ![]()
Ahora en serio, si no llevara unas cuantas ya, sí que compraría TXN al precio actual, pero al ir medianamente servido, soy más exigente en precio a la hora de ampliar.
Hoy me ha entrado otra compra de PEP a 132,5$, así que sigo acumulando.
Han caído unas ARE por aqui
Ayer fueron dos UNH a 410
Ayer cayeron unas pocas Nike
Ayer también amplié ARE
Yo aumente Google ayer
Se está poniendo dudoso el panorama… mi analista me dice:
Alexandria Real Estate: AFFO Beat Over shadowed by Guidance Cut and Rising Debt Concerns
Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) reported first-quarter 2025 results that beat expectations on Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO)[cite: 11], but this positive note was drowned out by significant concerns, leading to a sharp drop in the stock price[cite: 2, 9]. The overall tone for a retail investor leans heavily towards caution due to lowered future expectations and increasing financial pressures[cite: 21, 30, 34].
Why it matters:
- Guidance Slashed Despite Q1 Beat: Management lowered the full-year 2025 AFFO guidance by 7 cents per share, a significant reduction (~0.75%)[cite: 21, 23]. This signals slower re-leasing of vacant properties and issues leasing up new developments, directly impacting future profitability expectations[cite: 25].
- Occupancy Drop & Leasing Headwinds: Occupancy fell notably from 94.6% to 91.7% in Q1 2025[cite: 14], although this was somewhat anticipated[cite: 17, 19]. However, the slower-than-expected lease-up points to broader market challenges, like budget cuts hitting the life science sector ARE serves, potentially impacting demand[cite: 25, 44].
- Rising Debt Levels & Construction Halts: Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio climbed to 5.9x (quarter annualized), nearing a concerning 6x threshold[cite: 30, 33]. Furthermore, ARE plans to halt construction on some pipeline projects later in the year, which could leave capital stranded and signals financial strain[cite: 26, 28, 29].
- Challenging Asset Sales: While ARE is selling assets, a recent $124 million property sale required ARE to provide $91 million in seller financing at a high 12% interest rate[cite: 49, 51]. This suggests difficulty in selling assets at desired prices and could mean that Net Asset Value (NAV) estimates are overly optimistic[cite: 51, 52].
The bottom line:
- Weakened Investment Thesis: The lowered guidance, rising debt, occupancy pressures, and difficulties in asset sales significantly weaken the investment case for a retail investor, suggesting increased risk[cite: 6, 21, 30, 43, 51]. The analyst expresses doubt about the investment grade rating surviving long-term[cite: 7].
- Significant Headwinds: The company faces strong headwinds similar to the office REIT sector, driven by structural supply issues and evaporating demand due to budget cuts in the life sciences sector[cite: 43, 44]. While lab space isn’t directly impacted by “work from home,” the underlying demand drivers are weakening[cite: 44].
Outlook:
The near-term outlook appears challenging, with AFFO expected to contract after a long growth period, and analysts forecasting that 2026 and 2027 results could come in below 2025 levels[cite: 35, 36, 38]. While the stock is significantly oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce[cite: 39, 41], the underlying fundamentals present considerable risks[cite: 43]. For a retail investor, the key concerns are the declining occupancy trends[cite: 14, 45], high leverage potentially forcing asset sales in a difficult market[cite: 30, 47, 48, 51], and the overall health of the life science tenant base[cite: 44]. Caution is advised, as the path forward involves navigating significant financial and market headwinds[cite: 6, 43].
Incremento posición en SBUX en un 50% a 77,5$. Un -10% en apertura no se ve todos los días, el tiempo dirá si fue buen precio o no.
Cuando la cosa pinta mal es cuando hay que comprar, no ? Eso dicen…
compra de ARE por debajo de 72 y cierro el chiringuito
De acuerdo, pero la última vez cortó el dividendo.
Igual yo pienso q si hay aranceles se tendría que ver beneficiada xq deberían tener más demanda de espacio de alquiler.
El problema es si tiene que volcar en libros impairments x venta de activos como le está pasando ahora.
A ver… a 7% yield se pone jugosa.
¡ Valiente !..
…Es probable que yo sea algo cobardica y necesite un margen mayor de seguridad.
Salu2
Llevo meses esperando, de valiente, nada xD
A todo esto, hoy he estado a punto de ampliar Nike. Hubieran sido las tres coincidiendo en PER 19 ![]()
Hola
Ayer me entró una orden de UNH a 410
Con el cambio de divisa la compra se reduce todo bastante
Pero vamos, que si sigue en caída compraré de nuevo creo yo
Amplio TROW a 89,37 $.
UNH a 401,5
No has podido aguantar a los 400 ehh jajaja ![]()