David van Knapp (DVK)

Estrategia Referentes
16

Pregunta: Do you trim or sell your overvalued stocks or are you more of a buy and hold investor? If so, what guidelines do you use to trim?"

Respuesta:
When a position rises above my maximum position size, and is way overvalued, and stays that way for a couple months, I have trimmed positions. I cash out enough to bring the size down, and use the cash to purchase a high-quality stock that is better valued and usually has a higher yield.

Overvaluation is a price risk, so trimming reduces that risk. Being “too large” a position is a concentration risk, so trimming reduces that risk. Buying a better-yielding stock raises income flow immediately, and rising income is my main goal, so that goal is served. Buying a high-quality stock keeps the overall portfolio quality up, maybe even improves it a little (depending on the stocks involved)…

I don’t rebalance my portfolios on a set schedule, but this kind of targeted trimming does bring a portfolio into more balance. Having a balanced portfolio is not a goal of mine. I do not have “full positions” or “half positions” or things of that nature.

I should mention that my maximum position guideline is 10% of the portfolio, which is higher than most investors would tolerate, so these opportunities don’t arise all that often. I don’t trade much. My turnover is usually in the 0%-7% range each year.

Overall, I guess that makes me closer to buy-and-hold, although being such is not a goal of mine. My default decision in the absence of compelling evidence to “do something” is to hold.

Turnover is a byproduct of trying to improve the portfolio when my guidelines are “violated” by my stocks or maybe (very seldom) where I just decide that a stock isn’t cutting it and I let it go. I have no guideline that says I will hold everything forever, but in practice I have very little turnover.

Dave"

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17

Este tío tiene mucho sentido cuando habla las veces q le he leído, es interesante cuando escribe. En este caso al leer me surge un escenario, y es q si la sobrevaloración se da en una posición madura de la cartera, en la q el tiempo ha hecho su trabajo y el yield inicial se ha convertido en un “high yield”, entonces el sustituir ese rendimiento por otro q te procure mayores ingresos por dividendo sin recurrir a valores “high yield high Risk” es complicado. Por lo demás, como siempre, interesante leerle.

Un saludo.

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18

suele hablar con sentido común y a mí me parece muy didáctico en la forma de escribir que tiene.

en el siguiente enlace explica como decide recortar una posición que ha cogido demasiado volumen en la cartera:
Why I Sold Some Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pepsi (PEP) | Daily Trade Alert

Ahora no lo encuentro en sus artículos pero me acuerdo leer que también redujo exposición a PG cuando este cogió un tamaño que no respetaba su “plan de negocio”. Explicaba como vendía cierta cantidad de acciones para bajar el peso de PG por debajo del 10%. Al mismo tiempo, comentaba como el “actual RPD” de PG era muy bajo (por debajo de la media de la cartera) y que con la rotación que estaba haciendo quería aprovechar para meter más RPD en la nueva adquisición.

A mí , me parecio una “master class” facil de entender de cómo gestionar la cartera y seguir poniendo el foco en el largo plazo.

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19

Análisis de PFE

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20

Muy interesante. Como siempre. Que opinión os merece la fusión con Mylan? Estaba pensando abrir posición para la cartera familiar, pero tengo mis dudas…

24

" Pfizer’s evolution took its biggest step forward this past weekend when management announced plans to combine its off-patent established medicines with generic drugmaker Mylan (MYL), creating a new global pharmaceutical company with nearly $20 billion in revenue. This deal has important implications for dividend investors."
"Pfizer also expects that following the closing of the transaction the combined dividend dollar amount received by Pfizer shareholders in the event the equity distribution is structured as a spinoff, based upon the combination of continued Pfizer ownership and an expected 0.12 shares of the new company granted for each Pfizer share, will equate to Pfizer’s dividend amount in effect immediately prior to closing
In other words, Pfizer’s current dividend will probably be reduced (we’d guess by 10% to 20%), but the new company formed with Mylan will pay a dividend that makes income investors whole"

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25

Hmmm…pues la verdad, no se muy bien que pensar

26

100% of our stocks are DG stocks or ETFs (SCHD and SPHD).

Overall breakdown:
Cash & equivalents: 16%
Target-date fund: 17%
Bonds: 1%
DGI stocks & ETFs: 66%

The cash is largely from us having “retired” some money from the rat-race at the beginning of 2018 and 2019. It’s in MM funds and CDs, and it’s a combination of emergency fund and anticipated spending money. When I need to add cash to our checking account, that’s usually where I get it.

The target-date fund is my wife’s old 401(k) that we’ve never rolled over, because we’re oddly satisfied with the way it’s performed. It’s our last toe in the water of conventional MPT investing.

Dave

27

Dave vende BA y compra MMM y ENB.

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28

Análisis de SPG

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29

"My portfolios have their share of high-yield-slow-growth companies.

If you look at your portfolio from the income end of the lens, what can you do to improve your cash flow? (I don’t mean the average cashflow of the companies you own. I mean the cash flow of your investing business.) Answer: Buy shares in a company whose current yield is higher than your portfolio’s overall yield.

Example: I recently got fed up with Boeing. So I sold it right out of my portfolio. With the money I received, I bought shares in MMM (3.3% yield) and ENB (5.7%). Both yield more than BA. And with BA’s recent dividend freeze, one can say they are both faster growers too, even if that’s only temporary. Bottom line: My portfolio’s annual income went up a couple hundred bucks a year.

I’ believe that there are many dimensions along which you can diversify besides the traditional sectors and industries. Two of those dimensions are yield and DGR. Mix 'em up. So a well-rounded portfolio has some low-yield-fast-growth stocks, some mid-yield-mid-growth, and some high-yield-slow-growth. I think the individual investing business is sounder with a variety of income streams.

And if you’re accumulating, you’re reinvesting the dividends. The larger dividends drive faster growth in the income stream than the DGRs of the individual stocks. It’s the difference between investOR returns and investMENT returns. Your investment business counts investOR returns.

Dave"
[…]
""“The larger dividends drive faster growth in the income stream than the DGRs of the individual stocks.” What’s this mean?"<<

It’s the math of things based on reinvesting the dividends.

Say a stock yields 4% and has dividend growth of “only” 5% per year.

The investment’s DGR is 5%.

But if you reinvest the dividends, in Year 1 you get that 5% + 4% more, because you reinvest 4% of the original amount you spent, and that purchases 4% more shares. If you originally bought 100 shares, after Year 1 you own 104 shares.

So your investor DGR (i.e., the growth in dividend money that lands in your portfolio) is 9% in Year 1.

I left out timing issues and price changes to illustrate the point. Real numbers will vary based on price changes and the like. But the basic math is real. You can create a simple table of Year 1 - 10 results to get a look at it. Commonly to do that, assume the price changes at the same rate as the dividends (i.e., 5% per year). That will make it a little more realistic, although of course no one can predict the future, so price changes and dividend increases are speculative.

The best way to see this in action is in a real portfolio. In my public Dividend Growth Portfolio, my dividend income in 2019 will be up 11% over 2018. Only 4 out of 26 stocks had DGRs that high. The “overage” came from the shares purchased with reinvested dividends, plus a couple of stock swaps like the Boeing swap that I described earlier.

Dave"

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30

Empresa más que interesante la que nos trae el amigo David esta semana: GD

Me tienta darle un mordisco

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31

"Summary

I’m bullish on high-quality dividend growth stocks for 2020.

Define what “performance” means to you, then pick investments that will help you optimize that goal.

Think long term."

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33

Interesante comentario sobre la inversión “pasiva”

You can’t understand an index fund unless you understand the underlying index. The ETF itself will just say that it replicates the index, which sounds passive. As an investor, you just buy the ETF, which sounds passive.

The activity comes from the index, and believe me, many of them are not all that passive. But you have to look at the index’s rules to identify what is going on.

The ETF fact sheet usually won’t tell you squat. But they will identify the index. Put that exact name into Google, and voila, you will find the index’s documentation.

It can be eye-opening, and I suggest that every ETF investor do that at least once. Find out how they select stocks; how often they rebalance; how it’s weighted; what can get a stock kicked out of the index; what the rules are for replacing a stock that gets kicked out; how often the index committee meets (there is always a committee); and so on.

You may come away with a different view of “passive investing.”

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34

15 enero.

“I sold VTR today and replaced it with ENB and TXN in my public DG Portfolio. Article should be out on DTA later this week. If I could think of any more acronyms, I would shove them in here somewhere.
Dave”.

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35

Tambien vendió BA para comprar ENB y MMM. Esta acumulando ENB.

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36

Me sorprende más lo de TXN, no parece ser un chollo ahora mismo.

Imagino que la encuadrará dentro del grupo de empresas “extremely high quality” por las que está dispuesto a pagar hasta un 10% más de lo que el calcula como “fair value”

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37

Sí, llama la atención lo de TXN. Tampoco parece muy barata ENB después de pasar mucho tiempo en niveles de 35$.

Da que pensar.

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38

En octubre le salía fair price de 43. Morningstar ke daba 47$.

Ahora con un incremento del dividendo del 9%, se supone que el precio sube. Estará por los 50?

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39

Me parece bastante mas cara TXN que ENB, pero sus crecimientos de dividendos, si son sostenibles, atraen y mucho.

Despues de lo que ha subido el SP 500 en 2019 y el 3% que lleva en 10 dias de 2020 cuesta encontrar todavia valores baratos. Pero la subida de ENB tampoco me parece una exageracion.

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