Os quería pedir vuestra opinión sobre Ericsson, para muchos un error de inversión de OCU porque, al poco de incluirlo en la cartera modelo y cuando aún tenía recomendación de compra, presentó unos resultados desastrosos que hicieron que su cotización se hundiese un 50%.
No sé si es un error de inversión o no, pero lo que no se le puede negar a la compañía sueca es ser decidida con sus medidas correctores. Para muestra un botón:
Incremento de los despidos previstos en 3000 despidos adicionales.
Ericsson compra una consultora especializada en la transformación de empresas de telecomunicaciones.
Ericsson pone en marcha procedimientos para reducir a la mita el tiempo de despliegue de las redes.
Otro ejemplo más de acción OCU en que quien siguió su operativa al pie de la letra, probablemente salió escaldado. Pero el que procuró mejorar su “timing” a día de hoy uno tendrá unas plusvalías del 90-100% en 1 año.
Me repito, la OCU acierta más que falla en sus consejos, pero por estrategia no le dan importancia al “timing” y entran/salen en momentos mucho peor que la media. Además, ellos hacen entradas de golpe, mientras que si nosotros con promediar a la baja y entrar fuerte en bajadas heavys, mejoraremos de mucho sus resultados.
Ejemplos: Veolia, Ericsson, ArcelorMittal, hasta incluso os diría que Pearson. Esperemos que la historia se repita con KHC, Teva, Vodafone…
Sales were SEK 57.1 (53.8) b. Sales adjusted for comparable units and currency increased by 3% driven by strong growth in North America and North East Asia. Reported sales grew by 6%.
Operating income was impacted by cost provisions of USD -1.2 b. (SEK -11.5 b.) related to a resolution of the investigations by SEC and DOJ in the US and a refund of social security costs of SEK 0.9 b., referred to as “items affecting comparability” in the report.
Operating income was SEK 6.5 b. (11.4% operating margin) when excluding restructuring charges and items affecting comparability. Reported operating income was SEK -4.2 (3.2) b.
Gross margin excluding restructuring charges was 37.8% (36.9%) with improvements in Managed Services, Digital Services and Networks. Reported gross margin was 37.7% (36.5%).
Net income was SEK -6.9 (2.7) b., negatively impacted by items affecting comparability.
Free cash flow excluding M&A was SEK 5.5 (0.7) b. Net cash increased to SEK 37.4 (32.0) b.
Outlook
Sales ambition of SEK 230-240 b. for 2020 (previously SEK 210-220 b.), based on a SEK/USD rate of 9.50.
Operating margin target for 2020, excluding restructuring charges, remains unchanged at >10% of sales. This incorporates continued dilutive impact from strategic contracts, an initially higher cost level for newly introduced 5G products and a target adjustment for segment Emerging Business and Other to SEK -1.5 to -2.0 b. (previously break-even).
Operating margin target of 12-14% for 2022 (previously >12%), excluding restructuring charges, based on an ambition to grow faster than the market in combination with leverage from investments in market position and R&D.
Sales were SEK 66.4 (63.8) b. Sales growth was 1% adjusted for comparable units and currency. A reduction in North America was compensated by growth in other markets, primarily in the Middle East and North East Asia. Reported sales grew by 4%.
Operating income improved to SEK 6.5 (2.6) b., corresponding to an operating margin of 9.7% (4.0%) excluding restructuring charges. Reported operating income[1] was SEK 6.1 (-1.9) b.
Gross margin was 37.1% (32.0%) excluding restructuring charges. Reported gross margin was 36.8% (25.7%).
Networks gross margin excluding restructuring charges was 41.1% (41.0%). Operating margin excluding restructuring charges was 14.5% (17.5%) following the addition of the Kathrein[2] business and investments in R&D, digitalization, compliance and security.
Digital Services reported a positive operating income excluding restructuring charges.
Net income was SEK 4.5 (-6.5) b.
Free cash flow excluding M&A was SEK -1.9 (3.0) b. including payments of SEK 10.1 b. related to the resolution of the US SEC and DOJ[3] investigations. Net cash decreased to SEK 34.5 (35.9) b.
Full-year highlights
Sales increased by 4%, adjusted for comparable units and currency, with Networks growing by 6%. Reported sales increased by 8%.
Reported operating income improved to SEK 10.6 (1.2) b. Operating income was SEK 22.1 b. (operating margin 9.7%) excluding restructuring charges and SEK -10.7 b. in costs related to the resolution of the US SEC and DOJ investigations.
Gross margin was 37.5% (35.2%) excl. restructuring charges, with improvements in Networks, Digital Services and Managed Services.
Free cash flow excluding M&A amounted to SEK 7.6 (4.3) b. including payments of SEK 10.1 b. related to the resolution of the US SEC and DOJ investigations. Net cash at year-end was SEK 34.5 (35.9) b.
The Board of Directors will propose a dividend for 2019 of SEK 1.50 (1.00) per share to the AGM.
Esta mañana vendí mis Ericsson. Llevaban en mi cartera desde que la ocu las recomendó y @ifrobertocarlos las compró. 4 años más tarde yo también las vendo.
