Sector Tabaco

Eso es. Para bats el debt to equity si le quitas el goodwill sale similar a MO. Lo mismo pasa con el roe que es mucho más alto si quitas el goodwill del equity, como bien dice Vash.

1 me gusta

Super chulo muchas gracias. :slight_smile:

Tobacco stocks seem likely to move lower today following media reports that the Biden administration is considering lowering the nicotine and menthol levels in cigarettes in the U.S. The introduction of such measures does not form our base-case assumption for the purposes of forecasting cash flows, but it is one of the ESG risks we have identified, and is captured in our bear-case valuations. There is little evidence to suggest the change in administration has increased the probability of these events occurring, so we maintain our valuations and wide moat and negative trend ratings for the cigarette makers with exposure to the U.S. cigarette market: Altria, British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands. Negative headlines such as this have spooked investors since 2017, and the tobacco group is undervalued relative to our estimate of intrinsic value. Our picks remain Philip Morris International, whose exposure to the U.S. is limited to a revenue share of its market-leading reduced risk portfolio, and Imperial Brands, which trades at under 10 times forward earnings and pays a dividend yield of 9%.

The threat of a menthol ban has been an overhang for many years, and nicotine level reductions were mooted by hawkish FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb in 2017. Menthol is a compound added to cigarettes to ease throat irritation caused by cigarette smoke, and is said to attract young and female consumers, as well as African American smokers. Proponents of prohibition argue that it could lower the rate of smoking initiation in these groups. The menthol category represented 29% of the total U.S. market by volume in 2019, according to Euromonitor. Nicotine is in itself of limited harm if consumed in moderate quantities, but as the addictive substance in cigarettes, it suppresses the cessation rate. If it were to be limited in cigarettes to minimally or even non-addictive levels, the secular decline rate on cigarette volumes could accelerate.

5 Me gusta

Comentario interesante sobre los cambios de fundamento del sector del tabaco.

3 Me gusta

:heart: por publicar noticias de interés.

5 Me gusta

Me resulta muy curioso como el mass Media esta manipulando el tema tabaco malo vs marihuana buena.
Y alucino ya que por experiencia laboral la marihuana (hachís o derivados) sobre todo empezando en la adolescencia tienen unos efectos brutales sobre la salud.
Y no pongo tocho … :grin:

15 Me gusta

https://twitter.com/business/status/1389425066874654722?s=21

2 Me gusta

FDA’s Plan to Ban Menthol Will Have Limited Financial Impact on Altria and British American Tobacco

Altria’s in line first-quarter results were overshadowed by the Food and Drug Administration’s announcement that it is to seek a ban on menthol cigarettes. Although the risk of a menthol ban has been a long-term overhang and one of the ESG risks we have identified, we did not include it in our base-case assumptions because we felt the legal burden of proof for implementing a ban–which required the FDA to prove that a ban would be a net public health benefit–was fairly high. Following the FDA’s announcement, however, we believe the probability of a ban has now increased because the FDA clearly believes it has met that burden of proof. We still believe a ban will take years to implement, and we are lowering our stage II growth rate assumptions for the cigarette makers with exposure to the menthol category in the U.S. We are lowering our fair value estimates of Altria to $52 per share from $54, of British American Tobacco to GBX 4,000 from 4,300, and of Imperial Brands to GBX 2,900 from GBX 3,000. We believe the tobacco group remains undervalued, and our picks remain Philip Morris International, whose exposure to the U.S. is limited to a revenue share of its market-leading reduced risk portfolio, and Imperial Brands, which trades at under 10 times forward earnings and pays a dividend yield of 9%.

Altria’s first-quarter revenue net of excise taxes fell by 3.3%, slightly worse than our forecast due to a steep 12% decline in cigarette volume. We do not think that the underlying volume trend of a roughly 4% decline rate has changed much, however, and with management reiterating full-year guidance, it is likely that trade inventory movements drove volumes lower and that the impact of inventory level changes will reverse throughout the remainder of the year. Nevertheless, we expect the gradual easing of social distancing measures to slow volumes in the coming quarters. We retain our full-year estimates at the high end of management’s EPS guidance of $4.49 to $4.62.

10 Me gusta
1 me gusta

Me gustaría saber cómo ha ido evolucionando el contrabando :thinking: :pirate_flag: :pirate_flag:

¿Por qué cae el sector hoy en USA? No encuentro noticia relevante

Caen MO y PM un 2%, ¿Será por esto?

1 me gusta

Será por eso digo yo.

Lo que no entiendo es la bajada del 4% de BATS

Hoy es el ex-div. Le sumamos la noticia y ahi el 4%.

2 Me gusta

Si, lo del ex dividend está claro

Pero la noticia no entiendo que pueda perjudicar a BATS?

Bueno en verdad yo no entiendo casi nada :slight_smile: