Ted SeeksQuality

"The 3-month Treasury has now inverted with the 10-year Treasury. You earn essentially the same yield pledging your money for three months as you do for ten years. That is a strong FORWARD signal of a recession looming.

Europe may already have tipped. The German manufacturing print this morning was shockingly weak. I believe German bonds are now trading with a negative yield again. That is a signal of a recession (or at least severe weakness).

China is struggling, likely damaged by the trade war but also by the slowing global economy. Which is also reflected in the FDX earnings this week.

So what does this mean? Quality companies should continue to pay dividends. Defensive companies are not likely to see their earnings hurt much, though Sensitive sectors may start revising their outlook downwards. The last recession wiped out a year or two of earnings for many of the Industrials. But again, quality companies should continue to pay dividends!

Right now the Industrial and Tech companies promise the strongest forward returns, however that is based on their current earnings outlook. If we do hit a recession, that outlook will be coming down and those great “values” in the Industrial sector will suddenly look a lot more reasonably priced. Even overpriced. Yet quality companies should continue to pay dividends.

In my opinion, this is a bad time to be buying values based on aggressive growth targets. All value is in the future, and when those earnings estimates are slashed the price targets will come down with them. This is a good time to be buying quality companies that generate cash flow sufficient to their needs and pay a sustainable dividend.

What is the worst that can happen if you do that?"

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“A quick (and hopefully more positive) thought…
We sometimes joke about “magic pants”, but the real magic is in the durable earnings power of established and profitable corporations. Regardless of whether one measures by income or total return, investing in high quality equities delivers superb long-term results. All we need to do is get out of our own way and let them work their magic.
Almost any approach that consistently keeps your money invested in quality companies will be successful in the long run. Just find an approach that you can follow consistently and stick with it!”

“From my perspective, there are two reasons to buy green rather than red.
First, investors buying into red can end up “doubling down” far too many times on a weak stock, e.g. GILD or CVS. That faith might eventually prove to be worthwhile, or it could leave the investor missing out on better opportunities for many years.
Second, many investors seem to care a lot about whether they are green or red. It causes them worry. If you can’t ignore it, then don’t go out of your way to emphasize the red!”
[…]
“At least half of what Chowder is saying is that you should not be afraid to add on green. If you are building positions over time, eventually all or almost all of them will be green. If you have a position that is five years old and STILL not green, it probably hasn’t been doing very well. (TELEFÓNICA por ej, jajaja) :wink: You might in that case want to wait for some progress before building it further? Fair value rises over time, so you cannot avoid “averaging up” unless you are constantly starting new positions.
In any case, different strokes for different folks. I tend to buy strong companies on weakness (e.g. HD last quarter). Others prefer to buy on a beat and raise. You can make money either way, you just need to know what you are looking for and follow it consistently.”

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Tiene su lógica.
Siempre queremos comprar barato pero no siempre compramos calidad porque “está cara siempre”. Lo que ocurre es que no es lo mismo con un carterón ya hecho que el que está empezando y quiere ver rpd altas desde el principio.

Un saludo.

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Seeks Quality ha empezado un blog acerca de la construcción de una cartera. Se trata de una persona joven a la que “tutoriza”. Compras pequeñas y empezando de cero.

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/996169-seeksquality/5292756-beginning-growth-portfolio

Es una cartera complementaria. 28 compañías.

Consumer Staples: (5) DEO, MKC, PEP, PG, SYY.
Healthcare: (4) JNJ, MDT , MRK, SYK.
Consumer Discretionary: (4) DIS, HD, MCD, NKE.
Industrial: (4) BA, HON, MMM, UNP.
Technology: (5) AAPL, CRM, CSCO, GOOGL, MSFT.
Financial: (3) ADP, BRK/B, V.
Resources: (1) XOM.
Utilities: (1) NEE.
REITs: (1) DLR.

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Hablando del sector tecnología / Información y la calidad de las empresas respecto hace 20 años.

“The sector has matured over the last 20 years. There may still be some speculative startups, but there are also companies with recurring revenues, consistent earnings, and near-monopolistic ownership of key infrastructure resources.
I want to own UNP because they own irreplaceable infrastructure. That is the same reason I want to own MSFT and CSCO. I want to own NKE because they have a long history of producing compelling products, supported by a world-class brand. That is the same reason I want to own AAPL.
You know as well as I do that the sector classifications are arbitrary. I prefer to focus on the companies and their product lines, their financials and their business plan.
And yes, the sector can be volatile. Any growing company (including NKE) will be volatile. Companies that own essential economic infrastructure (including UNP) will be volatile. I know you are comfortable with volatility as long as the business and the dividends are sound.
I’m definitely not saying that you should invest in Technology. You have a visceral distrust of the sector, and thus you should stay away. You won’t be able to manage these positions well because you do not believe in them. What I’m saying is that the sector is very different today than it was 20 years go. I’m not saying “this time is different”. I’m saying “this situation is different”. The consistency of the revenues, the degree to which these businesses are integrated into the larger economy, and the P/E ratios.
Cisco is trading at $56, a 17.6 P/E. If they were trading at the same P/E they had in 2000, that would be $350. I didn’t touch CSCO at that multiple in 2000 and I wouldn’t touch it at that price today. Heck, I’d be selling due to unjustifiable valuation before it hit $100, a third that price!!!”

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“Does anybody here remember when grocery store cashiers rang up the price of each item MANUALLY?
Thirty years ago, will anybody remember that grocery stores once had cashiers?Perhaps thirty years from that, nobody will even enter a grocery store? Automated systems will deliver groceries to your door?
The world is changing, and the companies that thrive do so because their R&D continues to innovate. We take technology for granted in the medical arena. 3M is rightfully proud of its research program. Nike products employ surprisingly high-tech material science – it is more than simply screen printing a Nike logo on a cotton T-shirt or canvas flats…
You can’t escape technology, at least not unless you want to be trapped in the failing companies of yesteryear.”

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I am fully invested according to my target allocations (which are stable) at all times. I reconsider the allocations annually, perhaps changing by 1% or 2%, but the ultimate target has not changed for a while – a retirement portfolio with 80% equities (including eventually 10% Utilities and 10% Real estate) and 20% Fixed Income/Cash. Maintaining those percentages requires trimming when the market is rising and buying when the market is falling. I do both without a second thought, though trimming can be agonizing, since there are often times when there is nothing I want to sell. Buying is easy. :slight_smile: :slight_smile: :slight_smile:
The equity portion will produce enough to supplement Social Security to meet our full income needs. The fixed income portion will be enough to bridge for five years between retirement at 65 and delayed Social Security at 70. We might ultimately choose a different plan, but the amounts are sufficient to fund this plan.
The turnover in my retirement accounts, where the bulk of the trading occurs, is fairly high. My wife’s accounts and our taxable account are traded much less frequently. The total sales over the past 12 months amount to roughly 30% of my IRA balance, though in many cases the moves are circular. (E.g. add to AAPL on a dip, trim from AAPL on a rebound.) These trades allow me cash to enter new positions in size. Over the last 12 months the dividends in those accounts are roughly ~3% of the balance and new contributions are less than 1%. Without trimming/selling, I would have to save all new money for an entire year to add a position such as HD or ITW. My recent add to CSCO would have been half a year of new money. There are always more good companies to buy than there is money available. But you won’t find me complaining that I wish I had more of something! If I wanted more, I would make it happen.
I am a total return investor, not specifically an income investor, however the general trend of the trading serves to steadily increase the dividend income over time. Our dividend income more than doubled from 2013 to 2018, proving the power of compound returns over time!”
[…]
“it is quite simple, I don’t overthink it. Over the last few weeks, the market movements boosted the “core equity” portion to a $15k excess while pushing the utility and REIT allocations down to a $3k deficit apiece. (Or something like that, I forget the exact numbers.) I procrastinated, because there is no need to hurry a trim in a rising market, but pulled the trigger yesterday on a few moves to bring those numbers back into balance.
Trimming like that is driven by market moves, so while I’m selling into a hot market, I’m not necessarily selling my strongest holdings. Yesterday, for example, I trimmed CVS and INTC. Both are solid enough companies, but I doubt anybody would pick them out of my portfolio for their earnings growth or strength.
Trimming to maintain position size may lean towards selling strength, but the flip side is that it opens space in the allocation to purchase more shares on a dip. For example, the total sales of AAPL since 11/1/2017 amount to 65% of the position on that date, but the total purchases amount to 55% of that position. Our net position has decreased by only 10% – and would have increased by 10% if I were comfortable holding a position that large.
In contrast, we hold exactly the same shares of JNJ today that we did then. Because that position is held in my wife’s account, and in our taxable account, it gets traded rarely/never. No trades there in almost four years.
One way to assess whether we are selling strength and buying weakness is to judge how the portfolio has evolved over time. The two lists are the differences between our portfolio on 1/1/18 and our portfolio today. Eight eliminations and eight additions. Which list of stocks is stronger?
BDX, GE, GIS, GPC, IBM, MKC, RHHBY, SBUX
vs.
BRK, HD, HRL, ITW, INTC, MRK, PEP, PFE”
[…]
“My approach keeps a stable portfolio profile and balance, which I could never achieve without trading. I value that stability, and understand how the portfolio is likely to respond in different market conditions. I am comfortable with that.
Other people get caught up in making the right moves, guessing which companies will deliver stronger returns. I am largely focused on maintaining the portfolio metrics, and comfortable letting the returns take care of themselves.”

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“Consider how to complete the following sentence: “If I couldn’t find _____ at my store, I would go to a different store to look for it.” What brands would fit into that category for you?
You might also consider how to complete this variation: “If we couldn’t buy/use _____ there would be riots.” My guess is that Tech companies would be among the leading candidates there.”

Acerca de GIS y su congelación de dividendo.
“I know some here pay close attention to dividend increases. I do understand that a 3% dividend gives you much more spendable income than a 1.5% dividend, HOWEVER the difference between a freeze and a 5% increase is the difference between 3% and 3.15% the following year. For one stock out of 30-50 in a portfolio, that is hardly a material difference.
Thus I believe the focus ought to be on the business dynamics. Their business dynamics? Years of weak investment and weak organic growth, followed by an expensive acquisition and aggressive distribution rollout of a premium pet food brand. The shift from milking the cash cow to feeding the cash cow is likely to be healthy for the cow, but might temporarily reduce the milk collected.
If you like what they are doing, then look past the dividend freeze. If the uncertainty bothers you, then take a step back. Either can be a sensible move. I simply don’t believe the freeze itself should be the deciding factor. (But of course you are welcome to do things differently than I would.)
FWIW, I just closed out the option I had written against my GIS shares. Not much of a gain on that option, but I was struggling to find a position to increase with the proceeds from slashing my DIS position. Sometimes the best companies to add are those you already own – in this case I decided to cancel plans to exit GIS. Helps that the earnings estimates for GIS have been rising. :)”

“buying high quality companies for the long term is always a good idea.
In my opinion, many people are too focused on share price. Especially for investors who claim they are long-term DGI investors, making a series of smaller purchases, a 5% or 10% move is simply not that big a deal. It might be different if you are ready to drop $50 grand on the stock, but if you are buying in $1k increments, I believe your focus should be on owning the right companies rather than on waiting for bargains.
One investor I advise called me this morning to ask if MMM is a buying opportunity. I told him, “Sure, but MSFT is also a buying opportunity.” The one is down, the other is up, but both are buying opportunities because both are great companies. Don’t overlook strength in the search for a value.”

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“I’ll announce it here for now…
My gut says that it is time for me to take a step back from DIS. My numbers also anticipate a forward return of less than 4%, which is a level at which I start to take a VERY hard look at an investment.
DIS has been my third largest position, heavily overweight, a level that I reserve for companies that are both strong AND for which I believe there is good reason to anticipate outperformance over the next few years. DIS is a monster, a media giant. It remains as strong as anything in the sector. But their streaming service is the future, not the present. There is going to be a 2-3 year transition before their streaming even becomes profitable.
Their presentation to analysts was very well received. The share price now reflects a fair assessment of their future prospects. But Mr. Market has a short attention span, and will have several quarters of weaker earnings to sing doom-and-gloom before the positives compel its attention again. Analysts are now expecting earnings in FY20 to be $0.55 lower than in FY18. Given the level of investment during the ramp-up of their new platforms, that would hardly surprise me. It is good investment, a move they need to make, but it still costs money.
Thus I’m slashing the position by a little more than half. It remains a “full” position for me, at the ~3% level. It just no longer merits carrying at the 6%+ level. If I didn’t have so much, I would simply stay the course and wait out the transition with anticipation. It is a matter for me of reconciling the position size to the company situation and share valuation.
Gains on DIS and associated options over the last 4.5 years of 14.76% annualized (according to Quicken). The gains now exceed the remaining position size, so I suppose you could say I am “cashing out my profits”. Or maybe cashing out my principal and letting the profits run? Whatever…
Go ahead and complain that I’m trading too much, but it is my money and my approach. It is this mindset that got me heavily into DIS two years ago, when everybody was dumping on them, and I’m not going to switch gears and get greedy just because market sentiment has shifted on the stock.”

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" Thinking more about the different perspectives on AAPL between Chowder and myself. When there is a strong difference of opinion, it will typically point to a different in methodology. Chowder is focused on dividend income, and emphasizing momentum in this market. I am focused on earnings and cash flow, and have always leaned towards value. Maybe that is the difference?
Apple doesn’t pay much of a dividend, but it produces massive cash flow! OCF of $75B+, the equal of T + CSCO + IBM, and those three are typically understood as cash flow investments. FCF of $60B+, a conversion ratio around 100%. Figure around 5B shares, so it generates FCF of $12+ per share. For contrast, Abbott Labs will be lucky to generate $3B of FCF this year. If AAPL were to trade at the same Price/FCF ratio, it would be well over $300.
Chowder talks about the “adulation” that it receives? I don’t see that. What I see is a cash flow monster that is grossly underappreciated, because people still seem to believe it is supposed to be a growth company. Sure, it is growing a little, but it isn’t SBUX or SHW or ABT. It also doesn’t have the debt loads that those three carry, or the 20++ P/E.
I’ve got nothing against growth companies, and have learned to pay a higher price for that growth, but when I can buy a high-quality cash flow monster at 15x forward expectations, I am ALL OVER IT!!! At $150 last year it was under 13x annual cash flow.
I was never interested in AAPL while it was growing, because at the time I was reluctant to pay for growth. (I was and probably still am very bad at evaluating growth.) Once the business plateaued, and the cash started pouring in, it started ringing bells for my approach to investing.
So yeah, it is only up 156% over the last five years. I know some other stocks have gained more. But investing isn’t about percents, it is about dollars and cents. Having a good idea isn’t enough, it needs to be a good idea that you have sufficient conviction to put a year’s earnings behind! If you think small, your 300% gain might get you a night in a nice hotel.
Chowder has sufficient conviction in ABT and others like that to put big money into those ideas. I have sufficient conviction in the AAPL cash flow to see that as a rock in my portfolio. Thus Chowder does very well in ABT and I do very well in AAPL. :)"

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"the share count and reinvested dividends are irrelevant to the total return calculation. For a single investment and a single withdrawal, the total return is::

Total Return = (PositionValue) / (InitialPrincipal) - 1

And the annualized rate of return is:

CAGR = (PositionValue / InitialPrincipal) ^ (1 / years) - 1

…typically converting both decimal results to a percentage.

It gets complicated when there are multiple investments and/or multiple withdrawals. If you spend the dividends, for example, then the calculation is more involved."

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Dejo enlace a la calculadora del CAGR por si a alguien le es útil. En el Ending Value se suelen incluir los dividendos percibidos.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the mean annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time longer than one year.

CAGRFormula1

CAGR can also be calculated using Investopedia’s own Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator.

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Here’s a list that have had between 14 – 20% CAGR over a 30 yr period (or close to it).

MCD 16.77%

SYK 20.13%

ADP 14.63%

O 16.25% (data only back to 1995)

AMGN 21.07%

HD 20.36%

VFC 13.95%

ABT 14.21%

UNP 14.3%

LOW 19.39%

NKE 20.24%

SBUX 20.71% (data since 1992)

CBRL 15.67%

BDX 14.64%

JNJ 13.84%

UNH 24.09% (data since 1991)

MSFT 22.35%

AOS 16.91%

STZ 18.55 (data since 1993)

AAPL 18.45%

CSCO 23.57%

INTC 16.46%

CTAS 14.39%

MDT 16.73%

GILD 20.44% (data since 1993)

CELG 22.89%

NOC 13.96%

LMT 14.05%

VGHCX 15.44% (The Vanguard Healthcare mutual fund)

BA 14%

ORCL 15.84%

SPG 14.64%

PSA 15.67%

TXN 14.64%

VLO 16.88%

ADP 14.63%

ROST 21.54%

TJX 17.71%

BLK 20.27% (since 2000)

TJX 17.71%

TD 14.58% (since 1996)

BCE 15.05%

UHT 14.53%

NNN 14.85% (since 1990)

TXN 14.64%

ITW 14.15%

TSCO 19.39% (since 1994)

As a contrast, here a few utilities and consumer staples:

D 10.89%

NEE 13.12%

WEC 11.65%

GIS 10.51%

PG 12.8%

UL 11.88%

VZ 9.01%

T 6.10%

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Anoche estuve leyendo esto para que me quedara más claro:

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“Initiated GWW today as a 2% position. I could sell out of PEP, but they aren’t really comparable companies in the portfolio. So just used some cash that was sitting around.
I previously owned GWW for two days, back in 2017, but have followed it since and am more comfortable with the operations than I was then.”

Lowell Miller es el autor de “The Single Best Investment”. Libro altamente recomendable (no traducido) y disponible gratis en formato PDF con una simple búsqueda en Google.

"“The very attention we place on rising dividends puts us squarely in the position of ‘owners’ of a company, of true investors who understand that a satisfying and reasonable return from a stock investment isn’t a gift of the market or luck or the consequence of listening to some market maven, but it is the logical and inevitable result of investing in a company that is actually doing well enough, in the real world, to both pay dividends and to increase them on a regular basis”.
- Lowell Miller
His focus is obviously on dividends, but I otherwise totally agree with the statement. A satisfying and reasonable return from a stock investment isn’t a gift of the market or luck or the consequence of listening to some market maven, but it is the logical and inevitable result of investing in a company that is actually doing well. His focus is on the payment and increase of the dividends. Mine is on the earnings and cash flow of the business itself. Is that a major difference or a minor difference? Your call…
One of the several reasons that I do not consider myself a DGI is because labels are limiting. I do not need to belong to some group to be affirmed, but rather will work to follow my own plan as I understand it. If somebody is acting against their better judgement because they believe their chosen label requires it, wouldn’t that be a mistake? And if they are acting in concordance with their judgement, then what need is there for the label?"
[…]
“I have seen some here trying to define how a “true DGI” must behave. To me, that is a red flag warning. I have evolved from being a value investor to being a swing trader to being a quality-driven income investor (albeit with some admixture of the other styles). But if somebody starts trying to tell me what that label has to believe, then I will switch labels again. :slight_smile:
I think we can learn from the approaches of the authors and commenters here without allowing a label to define us.

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Interesante reflexion acerca del seguimiento cercano de una cartera una vez formada (gestión activa) o dejarla ir sola (pasivo).

I’m not convinced that active management of a DGI portfolio is either helpful or necessary? My advice to my wife, in case of my demise, is to do nothing but collect the dividends… That might not be a permanent solution, but it ought to last long enough for her to get up to speed on investing and/or for the kids to take over.”
[…]
“It isn’t at all clear to me that trading (whether active or occasional maintenance) does anything to improve either total return or dividend income. If you simply let everything run, after a decade or two you might find a substantial fraction (20%?) that have stagnated or declined, faded into irrelevancy, but you will also find a substantial fraction that have exceeded all expectations. If you simply let a portfolio ride without trading, there is a natural tendency for it to become more concentrated — but that doesn’t necessarily impact overall average performance, just the volatility in the performance.
My trading helps to maintain the consistent portfolio profile that I’m looking for, with high quality metrics and generally average or below average PE. But when I have backtested past portfolios (e.g. looking up what I held on May 30, 2004) on a buy and hold basis, the performance has been similar.
And yes, “let it ride” is very much what B&H (Se refiere a Buyandhold2012) does. Which is part of why his portfolio value is concentrated in a handful of very large positions.”
[…]
“in my experience you can avoid declines if you are proactive about it, but you will also end up selling some stocks that rebound to do well. Both those that ultimately fail and those that rebound will be sold at a discount, naturally.”
[…]
“It isn’t about winners vs. losers. It is about whether selling at a loss/discount to avoid a total loss is better than hanging on, watching most of those positions rebound, and suffering a total loss occasionally.
If I could avoid ever buying a company that ends up being a loser, I’d have very strong portfolio returns. The trick is to tell the difference between the winners. It isn’t obvious when I buy them, or at any point along the process.”

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