Ted SeeksQuality

Estrategia Referentes
111

5 de marzo:

"Over the first two months of the year, our only moves were to shed positions in WEC and WTR (now WTRG) while putting part of the proceeds into D and DUK. But with new cash coming in, we made two purchases today in our taxable account and one in an IRA:

Taxable account: 100 sh. JPM and 100 sh. DEO
JPM is a new position for us. Likely not a timely buy, but I’m comfortable initiating here. DEO is a long-time holding that we are rebuilding now that it has come down from the lofty heights.

IRA: 100 sh. WTRG
Was time to put a little more into Utilities, and while I don’t LOVE the value, the quality appears to be pretty solid. Time at least to start dipping the toe in the water again.

Mostly just ignoring the accounts and the crazy market action, but good values are beginning to emerge after a long winter’s nap."

112

Y esta url las ordena por yield.

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113

“Our investment plan was written to fund our retirement without equity sales, and with a large margin of safety. We are going to see dividend cuts in this market. What we are seeing now in the REIT and energy market is just the tip of the iceberg. But that’s okay, dividend cuts are not the end of the world. That’s why we have a large margin of safety built in! I’m not going to dump DIS or SYY just because they suspend or reduce the dividend for a couple years.
In normal times you own quality because quality companies don’t cut their dividends. In times like this (which we haven’t seen for 100 years), you own quality because those companies will survive the mess. At least they have the best chance of surviving the mess. That will be enough.
I will likely reallocate some of that cash into equities at some point for the simple reason that fixed income returns are now permanently in the toilet at the same time that equity yields are up sharply. Of course I’ll be shopping for the safest dividends, likely in the 3% to 4% range, not necessarily the biggest bargains. A safe dividend paying 3% does the job for me.
But we don’t NEED to make these shifts. That takes a lot of the pressure off. So what if we miss an opportunity? We already have enough in place, with an appropriate balance to weather any storm that doesn’t knock us back to the Stone Age.”

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114

“Stocks are simply not bonds! I suspect this correction/recession/depression will wash out a lot of the nonsense surrounding DGI. What is left, as always, will be a solid core of high quality stocks – with a largely defensive focus.”

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115

Visión pesimista o realista de lo que nos viene encima:

“I am hopeful that things will return to normal (perhaps a “new normal”) within two years. Between your two years of cash and ongoing dividends, you should be okay. At the very least I wouldn’t worry about it yet.”

"I would assume little/no DGR (aumento de dividendos) for the next few years. Depending on your mix, you could see a reduction in dividend income. Right now the goal is survival. Once we are done with this, and work our way through the recession, then we can think about growth again.
This has the potential to push your retirement date back a couple years. I definitely wouldn’t assume the ability to draw 4% based on last year’s asset values.

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116

El ciclo del dinero según él, centrado en el aumento de déficit del país.

“My take on the Federal Deficit, Federal Debt, and QE…
Think of cash like water. It rains, it waters plants, flows into rivers, evaporates, rains again, and perhaps eventually ends up in the ocean – where again it evaporates and rains. If any part of the process “dries up” then you need to inject additional cash to keep the “plants” watered and growing.
Our present economic system concentrates wealth in the hands of a few. I’ve heard that the richest 1% own 44% of all global assets, a proportion that has steadily been rising over the last 20 years. In the US, the richest 1% own 40% of all assets. Perhaps more meaningfully, the richest 10% own 80% of all assets. Again, both of these numbers have tended to rise.
In my opinion, the top 10% generally have more money than they know what to do with. They spend some, splurge a little, and then… THEY INVEST. That investment tends to be shuffled back and forth from one wealthy individual to another, but it doesn’t actually cycle through goods/services until it is spent. And as a group, the top 10% are cash-flow positive. More cash makes its way into their hands than is being spent.
Thus the economy repeatedly requires injections of “new cash”. During periods of growth, enough of that money gets spent to keep things flowing, but in a recession that stops (or slows) and the only way to start it again is to “print more cash”. The Treasury boosts borrowing and the Fed boosts its book, with the end result of more debt and more cash in the system.
If the wealthy as a group (and I’m probably talking about the top 10% here, which might include myself) were to ever try to spend their accumulated wealth, that would likely result in inflation. But as long as they are content to sit on the wealth, it just continues to grow – fed by continued borrowing. The actual economic production isn’t growing nearly that rapidly, so this implies ever-decreasing returns on that wealth.
I don’t think this can continue forever, but the way it breaks is heavily dependent on public policy.”

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117

Chowder has a reasonable approach to this. Ignore the volatile earnings, ignore the volatile share price, and focus on the strength of the dividend. If the company has sufficient confidence in the future earnings stream to declare a 6% dividend increase, and has earned our confidence through their past management practices, then we can trust that. It is certainly more meaningful than their Q2 outlook.But personally I’m taking it a step farther in this environment (partly because I am less dividend-focused than most people here). Forget earnings. Forget P/E. Forget share price. Forget dividends.

I’ll go with what Scootrd said above: "Investment in corporations with cleanest balance sheets, no / low short term debt, and FCF is first and foremost my metrics of greatest importance at present."Quality, quality, quality, and cash flow. Buy that and the rest will figure itself out."

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No se puede decir más claro.

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119

Y además predica con el ejemplo. Su cartera hasta hace no mucho

19+ JNJ, AAPL, MSFT, PG, BRK.B, NSRGY, INTC
18 NKE, CSCO, MRK, HON, MDT, GOOG, HRL, DEO, ITW, PEP, KMB, HD, SYY, UTX, UL, MMM
17 UNH, UNP, GWW, NEE, DIS, AMGN, PFE
16 ETN, NVS, VFC, CVS, WEC, DUK, WTR
15 T, D
14 SO

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120

Este me parece un debate falaz en estos momentos.

¿Es peor empresa Amadeus que Dia? No lo creo ¿cual va mejor en 2020?

Hablar de la calidad de las empresas cuando ahora mismo lo unico que importa es que empresa puede abrir y cual no …

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121

"You talk about growth rates, about P/E ratios, and about what is or is not an appropriate price to pay for a given stock. In this environment I am seeing several problems with that approach.

(1) I have very little earnings visibility for 2020-2021 and low confidence in my long-term estimates. It seems to me like we will see major structural changes in the economy over the next few years, and I’m not smart enough to know how they will all play out.

(2) One of the many possibilities on the table is a Great Depression. This wouldn’t necessarily be caused by the virus? I believe the economy has been vulnerable for a while. (How this plays out depends in part on our politicians, on the President and on Congress, and they may have wildly different ideas on how to proceed.) If this brief Recession extends into a Depression, a simple 2% earnings growth could be “best of class”. I know that I’m not expecting better than that for most of my portfolio this year.

(3) One of the key elements in the political response is massive fiscal stimulus (the COVID checks) and monetary stimulus (from the Fed opening the firehose). Over the course of barely a month, the Fed book has increased by $2T, literally 50%!!! That money has to go somewhere? If it gets spent on goods and services, then the economy will recover but we will see rampant inflation. If it gets invested, then asset prices will be forced higher – and the markets may reset to a higher “new normal” P/E, just as they did in the last QE.

Thus I see valuation in this market as an exercise in navigating through dense fog, in stormy seas, based on charts that are a decade old. Perhaps we can do so skillfully and avoid the shoals? But I’m placing my greater faith in the strength of my ship."

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122

Consejo a alguien que cedió al pánico y vendió en el peor momento.
También comenta los movimientos que ha hecho estos meses.

""Set it up to auto-reinvest, and auto-rebalance, and don’t look at it. "

DON’T LOOK AT IT!!! I know that some here think that I’m an “active” investor, and must be obsessing over every market movement in an attempt to profit, but for the most part I’m just letting this wash past me. I’m checking in every couple weeks to make new (small) purchase recommendations to those I advise who are continuing to invest money. But I’m not worrying about gains, losses, analyst cuts, or whatever. I’m not even worrying about dividend cuts – there will be some but the magnitude will be manageable.

My “big moves” the last couple months have been to initiate positions in ADP and SYK. My allocations told me it was time to add to the portfolio, and these are two great companies I’ve wanted to own for a while. I don’t recall my purchase prices, though I’ll look them up if you ask. I don’t have any clue what their earnings will look like this year. But I’m quite confident that I will be happy with the investments ten years down the road.

My other moves? Sold OTIS and CARR spinoffs. I have no clue whether they are a great value or not, but their credit quality does not fit my criteria. Easy decision regardless of whether they go up or down. Trimmed from ITW and ETN, and added some more shares of RTX (now that I can buy that one as a standalone). Trimmed from MSFT (the position was getting huge) and added to TXN.

None of this involved guessing the direction of the markets – all just trying to “right size” my positions in great companies that I want to own.
[…]
“I should note that I’m glad to be a “Total Return” investor. If I were exclusively focused on dividends, then I’d be far more concerned with the possibility of dividend cuts than I am. As a Total Return investor, I find it easy to look past the short-term turmoil to see the long-term value in these companies.”

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123

Acerca de Disney.

“I’m taking a hard look at Disney, not necessarily because of the chatter here or because of the dividend cut, but…
(1) Near-term earnings are somewhere in between “bad” and “non-existent”.
(2) Long-term picture is uncertain. I am not convinced we are “back to normal” on June 1. Nor necessarily even in 2-3 years. We may find a “new normal” in which certain Disney operations are permanently impaired.
(3) Love the content and the business, but we’re paying a pretty high multiple for that future given the combination of headwinds and poor visibility.
Haven’t sold yet. Not sure what I would buy if I did sell. But am thinking it makes sense to sell in some of the more conservative portfolios I advise. It isn’t quite as speculative as NFLX, but the investment premise is similar.”

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124

Y dos días después vende su posición (y también en otras carteras que lleva).
Como en todo, hay opiniones dispares. Gente del hilo DGI de S.A. han vendido y otros aguantan.

“Sold the final shares of DIS, used the proceeds (and a few hundred dollars of cash) to add to RTX and NSRGY. Received $352 in dividends last year. Expect $624 of dividends over the next 12 months, which is $624 more than I would have expected from continuing to hold DIS.
Obviously it is easy to improve your dividends over a company that has suspended theirs. In this case it is “trading up” from a company that never paid much of a dividend to companies that pay above-average dividends, and at an exchange ratio that is pretty flat. Thus our dividend income improves YOY.
It is debatable which of the three companies will see the greatest growth over the next five years. I don’t love the idea of investing in a growth thesis in the face of strong headwinds. DIS will survive and thrive, but that doesn’t mean they will be immune to this in the near term.
I will keep watch on DIS and consider rebuilding the position if the price/economy improves. Lifetime gains on DIS and associated options amounting to an 11.5% CAGR over the last five years, which isn’t outstanding but is better than a stick in the eye.”

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125

Yo también vendí DIS a mediados de abril, aprovechando el rebote.

La razón de la venta no fue la más que probable suspensión del dividendo (mi YOC era de alrededor del 2%, era un dividendo bastante bajo y esa no era razon suficiente para mí, algunas de mis acciones no pagan dividendo alguno).

La razón de la venta fue la incertidumbre sobre el potencial de negocio futuro. A pesar de que DIS es el epítome de empresa con un pedazo de MOAT invencible y partiendo de la base de que el negocio de Streaming tiene tanto o más potencial que el de NFLX, ahora mismo hay muchas incógnitas sobre el valor de los negocios de Parques, hoteles, cruceros y producciones cinematográficas .

Incluso si mañana desaparece el virus para siempre, no sabemos cómo se va a comportar el consumidor a partir de ahora en términos de patrones de gasto y de ahorro (razón entre algunas otras por la que pienso que la salida de la crisis no va a ser en V como están anticipando el Nasdaq y el SP500 y que nos queda más caida, pienso que habrá oportunidades de coger DIS y muchas otras a mejores precios)

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126

Creo que nos queda una larga travesia en el desierto.

Quieren ir muy deprisa con la economia para que no colapse pero no se yo si el consumidor va a ir a la misma velocidad que quieren las empresas y los gobiernos.

Inseguridad, incertidumbre, posible rebrote, segunda oleada, etc.

Creo que hasta que no haya una vacuna las cosas van a estar un poco en el aire

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127

"Out of curiosity, I pulled our top 20 positions from 8/3/2018 to compare to our current holdings.

2018: JNJ, DIS, AAPL, MSFT, MMM, KMB, UL, MDT, NKE, SYY, HRL, PG, HON, UNP, AMGN, IBM, VFC, UTX, SBUX, CVS

2020: AAPL, JNJ, MSFT, *GOOG, *HD, *ADP, CSCO, MMM, CVS, UL, AMGN, NKE, SYK, RTX, KMB, UNP, NSRGY, MRK, HON, UNH

Divested from DIS (COVID risk, valuation), IBM (YPMO, quality), VFC (valuation at peak).

Added GOOG, HD, ADP, SYK, MRK, UNH. Others were/are owned in both periods even if no longer quite in the top 20."

[…]

" we just executed a major set of trades – our largest since March. Added to JNJ, MRK, MSFT, PG. At least two of the four are overpriced by any normal definition, yet still priced fairly vs. peers. All four are quality companies that I expect to be there and supporting me in 10-20 years.

We are in a grossly inflated market. The Fed has created a ridiculous amount of new money in the last six months, and that money has to flow SOMEWHERE. Most of it has flowed to the bond and stock markets, though some may be flowing to real estate as well.

So what am I going to do? Sit on cash forever? When we have cash available, we put it to work, according to our allocation plan. Next year we will have more cash available (and the allocation plan always calls for a substantial cash position). I’m not going to spend my life fearing the next correction, jumping in and out of the market in the hopes of dodging the “big one”.

I don’t want to tell people that the market ISN’T overpriced, but at the same time I’m not going to let that drive me. Focus on the long term, practicing consistent portfolio management when the market is high as well as when it is low. Those who are fearful of valuations now will often be fearful for other reasons when the market is low. I’ll work to choose my best CURRENT options in either case, regardless of how the market behaves."

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" As a DGI investor, are you better off when the market rises or falls? (Keeping in mind that you have no control over which happens.) Consider a hypothetical stock that costs $100 in Year 0, has $6 of EPS, a 6.5% earnings growth rate, and a 50% payout ratio. Those are the fundamentals that I will use throughout.
(1) If the share price sits at $100 for ten years, while you continue reinvesting dividends, an initial investment of $10,000 will have grown to just $14,868, but the annual income will have increased from $300 to $837. You can think of this as the AT&T scenario, perhaps? In this scenario the earnings and dividends rise over time, but the share price stagnates.
(2) Yet that is a somewhat unusual situation – rising earnings and rising dividends SHOULD be accompanied by rising share prices over longer periods of time. (Albeit ten years isn’t an especially long period of time.) If the yield were to remain constant, then the portfolio value would increase to $25,227 but the income would only increase to $757.Which do you prefer? Despite DGI investors claiming not to care about the share price and portfolio value, my guess is that most people here would prefer the latter scenario. While it might result in 10% less portfolio income, it is hard to pass up an extra $10k in value that could be harvested through trimming. Either situation works out pretty well!
The concerning scenarios are those in which the share price outpaces the fundamentals. Chowder writes about how all value lies in the future, but if that value is recognized too quickly by the market, it can lead to an extended period of under-performance.
(3) Suppose the share price rises immediately after purchase to the “future value” implied by a 3.0% yield on the earnings 10 years from now – and then stays there for ten years? The initial purchase might have been fairly valued. The ending purchase might be fairly valued. But the compounding from the reinvestment is much less effective – the portfolio ends with $23,234 of value, but the income is just $697 in this scenario. A premature increase in the market is clearly inferior to the “steady state” scenario described in (2).
(4) Of course the ugliest scenario is when you purchase at an inflated value and the share price stagnates. Even if the fundamental earnings and dividend growth is strong, and even if the price never falls, the compounding is MUCH less effective when buying at a premium price. If that initial purchase is at $187 (based on a 16.7 P/E for the earnings ten years down the road), then the $10k investment grows to just $12,378 and the final income is just $371. No capital gains, just ten years of accumulated and compounded dividends, but compounding from a low yield doesn’t take you very far.
(5) I’m sure some will point out that scenario (4) assumes a ten year retrenchment from a 31.3 P/E to a 16.7 P/E. Wouldn’t things still work out pretty well if the valuation stays high? Running this scenario definitely results in a higher terminal portfolio value of $21,995 (though that is still inferior to scenarios 2 and 3), but the terminal income in this situation is just $351, a ten-year YOC of just 3.5%!!!
If you buy at a “fair value”, pretty much any scenario works out well! If the share price stagnates, your compounding catches fire and you end up with a terrific terminal income – in fact the best of any of these scenarios! If the share price tracks with earnings, you get almost as much income and a heck of a lot of gains to boot. Even if the share price rises prematurely, short-cutting the compounding, you still end up with strong numbers.
But if you buy at a 30+ P/E, the magic of compounding doesn’t get you nearly as far. Call this the HRL scenario? A current P/E around 30, an initial dividend yield of 1.6%, and steady (but unspectacular) earnings growth anticipated? Maybe CLX or MKC?Again, I want to emphasize that the FUNDAMENTALS of the company are identical in each scenario. Steady earnings growth and dividend growth. Clearly a company that merits a very high dividend safety score.
That’s why I hate this market… The good news is that the bulk of our purchases were made years ago, at much more reasonable valuations. The bad news is that the share price appears to be anticipating the next 5-10 years of gains, which limits my ability to compound income growth through reinvestment. I don’t know whether the valuations will correct over time (scenario 4) or find a “new normal” at this level (scenario 5), but neither is all that attractive for an income investor.
And heck, I’m not even a True DGI!"

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129

En respuesta a la pregunta: ¿Entonces empresas que se mantienen con precios bajos mientras se hace reinversión de dividendos (DRIP) funcionarán bien para DGI?.
Las empresas son XOM, T, CVX, MO y PM.texto en negrita

“The three primary factors controlling your future income stream:
(1) Initial yield
(2) Organic dividend growth
(3) Quality – dividend cuts do awful things to dividend income
You are buying those five at excellent yields (XOM, MO, T, CVX, PM). I’m assuming they don’t presently have much dividend growth (I know T does not), but with yields like that you don’t NEED much dividend growth. As long as their Quality remains high, and they avoid dividend cuts, those investments should play out for you.
Note that it takes a LONG time for a 1.6% dividend yield to catch up to a 4.0% dividend yield, even if the former increases 10% annually while the latter increases at a low-single-digit rate. Thus the initial yield (i.e. valuation) matters more to future income than the dividend growth rate does. (Quality is paramount, here as always.)
From a capital gains perspective, you might look at it differently:
(1) The initial valuation (think “yield” or P./E or something similar)
(2) The terminal valuation
(3) Organic growth (dividend growth and/or earnings growth)
(4) Quality!!!
If your initial valuation is lower than your terminal valuation (e.g. buy at a 12 P/E and sell at an 18 P/E, think GIS) you get large gains even if the earnings have increased only modestly. In the reverse scenario, it takes a heck of a lot of organic growth to make up for a retrenchment from a 50 P/E to a 20 P/E (think WMT post-bubble).
And Quality overrides all else. If the business deteriorates and earnings fall, you won’t be seeing any capital gains.”

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"Alentaría a la gente a tener una visión a largo plazo con la inversión de dividendos. Si una empresa es financieramente sólida, uno o dos años de crecimiento más lento no deberían ser un gran problema; en la mayoría de los casos, el “dinero muerto” desaparece en el espejo retrovisor una vez que la empresa alcanza su siguiente racha de crecimiento.

¿Se da cuenta de que las ganancias de NKE se mantuvieron estables de 2017 a 2019? ¡Ahora, de repente, están viendo $ 3.40 / acción durante el próximo año con un crecimiento excepcional proyectado a partir de eso! A finales de 2017, la gente miraba un precio de acción que no había ido a ninguna parte durante dos años, un modelo de negocio que estaba en declive, costos crecientes y EPS plano … Un par de años después son los favoritos de la calle.
Wall Street tiene una capacidad de atención muy corta. Se centran en gran medida en las ganancias del último trimestre y las perspectivas para el próximo año. Los ciclos económicos son más largos que esto: le tomó a NKE un par de años construir el canal DTC que está impulsando su éxito actual.
Y si una empresa de crecimiento agresivo como NKE puede estancarse durante un par de años, considera las implicaciones para las empresas de crecimiento más lento como JNJ, MMM y CSCO. Las ganancias de JNJ bajaron un poco en 2020, y el precio de las acciones estuvo estancado en un canal desde mediados de 2017 hasta mediados de 2020. ¿Ahora? Se ha salido de ese canal a lo grande. MMM cometió algunos pasos en falso, que junto con los ciclos económicos generaron un período de CUATRO años de ganancias planas, pero parece estar nuevamente en la senda del crecimiento nuevamente. CSCO se encuentra en medio de un período de crecimiento más lento, el final aún no está a la vista, pero no veo ninguna razón para creer que finalmente no saldrán de él.
Las comparaciones de CSCO con IBM son un poco prematuras. IBM vio disminuir el EPS de 2013 a 2016, luego se estancó durante dos años y luego disminuyó MUCHO durante los próximos dos años. Por el contrario, las ganancias de CSCO simplemente se han estancado. Existe una gran diferencia entre un crecimiento lento y un crecimiento negativo, ¡especialmente para las empresas cargadas de deudas!"

[…]

" “Cuanto más grande es una empresa, más tarda en dar la vuelta. Tengo paciencia”.

El otro factor clave es la fuerza. No puede identificar un núcleo rentable si todas tus marcas son débiles. No puedes darte el lujo de invertir en nuevos sistemas si tienes un gran apalancamiento y tienes dificultades para cumplir con los dividendos.
Las empresas fuertes eventualmente lo resolverán. Las empresas más débiles pueden verse atrapadas en un ciclo de tala y quema, hasta que no quede mucho. Considera el caso de IBM, que ha perdido un tercio de sus ingresos, un tercio de su beneficio bruto y la mitad de su beneficio operativo durante la última década, y está a punto de escindir otra fracción sustancial. Todo mientras que los pasivos se han AUMENTADO en un 30%, porque necesitaban recomprar acciones al papel debido a la caída de EPS.
Las empresas crecen, se expanden, se escinden, se contraen … Es un ciclo sin fin. Los fuertes manejan este ciclo con éxito, mientras que los débiles buscan una solución rápida."

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