A mi TEVA no me dice nada, la verdad. Me parece que tiene todos los inconvenientes del sector (parece que todas las farmas se han convertido en una magnífica fuente de ingresos para abogados de todo tipo de pelaje, ya sean polvos de talco, herbicidas, abuso de opioides…), y ninguna de las ventajas (centrada en genéricos y por tanto con elevada competencia y márgenes muy bajos).
En definitiva, una empresa muy poco atractiva en un sector en donde abundan las empresas buenas o muy buenas (JNJ, AMGN, PFE, MDT, BDX, SYK…). Que no veo la necesidad de meterse en este charco, vaya. Tampoco digo que que no se pueda hacer dinero con ella en un mete-saca, pero para comprar y olvidarse no la veo…
Álvaro, a ver si sacas algo de tiempo y te dejas caer por el foro para comentarnos como va aquel método que estabas puliendo para seleccionar empresas y en que valores te estás fijando ultimamente.
Buenas,
Muchos dolores de cabeza me está dando Teva, vi el programa “60 minutes” americano y la cosa es grave, acuerdos de fijación de precios bastante feos. Sin pruebas fehacientes pero sí las suficientes pruebas circunstanciales. Entre esto y los opiods, le cae multón. Lo de los litigios no es nuevo, pero que le sean bastante desfavorables sí. Dicho esto, lo más probable es que el pago sea en cómodos plazos y según su capacidad de generar cash flows, Un juez americano no va a ir a hundir a la empresa.
Suponiendo que esto sea así, la tesis de inversión se retrasa en el tiempo uno o dos años pero sigue siendo válida. Teva era un transatlántico sin rumbo, escorado y perdiendo aceite, puedo equivocarme pero no la veo acabando como el Titanic. Ahora hay un buen capitán, no una retahila de ineptos como antes. Dejará de perder aceite en 2020 cuando haya absorbido todo el impacto del copaxone. Se empezará a enderezar repagando la deuda progresivamente y para dentro de 3 años habrá cambiado el rumbo y podría valer 2-3x más. Dentro de 5 años puede que hasta 4-5x más.
Imaginemos las ventas volviendo a crecer a partir de 2021 al ritmo de la industria farmacéutica del 4%, nada espectacular, imaginemos un poquito de expansión de márgenes sólo que Kare Schultz logre hacer la mitad de lo que hizo en Novo Nordisk, e imaginemos la deuda bajando de $28B a $20B. A medida que va disminuyendo la deuda cada vez los intereses son menores y mayores los beneficios. Ya sé que es mucho imaginar y por el camino van a surgir sorpresas, pero para entonces, a 5 años vista, los ratios de deuda podrían estar dónde toca y esta empresa sería capaz de generar $2+B de FCF.
A estos precios no pude resistirme y amplié. Sólo espero que dejen de lloverle palos, con eso bastaría.
Revenues in the second quarter of 2019 were $4,337 million, a decrease of 8%, or 5% in local currency terms, compared to the second quarter of 2018, mainly due to generic competition to COPAXONE®, as well as declines in revenues from TREANDA®/BENDEKA®, certain other specialty products in the U.S., our Europe segment and Japan, partially offset by higher revenues from AUSTEDO®, AJOVY® and QVAR® in the United States.
Exchange rate differences between the second quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2018 negatively impacted our revenues and GAAP operating income by $125 million and $41 million, respectively. Our non-GAAP operating income was negatively impacted by $47 million.
GAAP gross profit was $1,893 million in the second quarter of 2019, a decrease of 7% compared to the second quarter of 2018. GAAP gross profit margin was 43.7% in the second quarter of 2019, compared to 43.2% in the second quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP gross profit was $2,188 million in the second quarter of 2019, a decline of 6% compared to the second quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP gross profit margin was 50.5% in the second quarter of 2019, compared to 49.7% in the second quarter of 2018. The increase in gross profit as a percentage of revenues was mainly due to higher profitability in Europe, partially offset by lower profitability in North America, resulting mainly from a decline in COPAXONE revenues due to generic competition.
GAAP operating loss in the second quarter of 2019 was $644 million, compared to $14 million in the second quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP operating income in the second quarter of 2019 was $1,011 million, a decrease of 18% compared to $1,238 million in the second quarter of 2018. The decrease in non-GAAP operating income was mainly due to lower profits in North America resulting mainly from a decline in COPAXONE revenues due to generic competition, lower revenues of certain other specialty products in North America and the lack of other income, partially offset by cost reductions and efficiency measures as part of the restructuring plan and higher revenues of AUSTEDO.
EBITDA (non-GAAP operating income, which excludes amortization and certain other items, as well as depreciation expenses) was $1,144 million in the second quarter of 2019, a decrease of 18% compared to $1,387 million in the second quarter of 2018.
Revenues in the third quarter of 2019 were $4,264 million , a decrease of 6%, or 5% in local currency terms, compared to the third quarter of 2018, mainly due to generic competition to COPAXONE ® , a decline in revenues from BENDEKA ® / TREANDA ® and certain other specialty products in the United States , as well as a decline in revenues in Russia and Japan , partially offset by higher revenues from AUSTEDO ® , AJOVY ® and QVAR ® in the United States .
GAAP gross profit was $1,830 million in the third quarter of 2019, a decrease of 7% compared to the third quarter of 2018. GAAP gross profit margin was 42.9% in the third quarter of 2019, compared to 43.7% in the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP gross profit was $2,103 million in the third quarter of 2019, a decline of 7% compared to the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP gross profit margin was 49.3% in the third quarter of 2019, compared to 49.9% in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease in gross profit as a percentage of revenues was mainly due to lower profitability in North America , resulting mainly from a decline in COPAXONE revenues due to generic competition, partially offset by higher profitability in Europe , resulting mainly from lower cost of goods sold related to network optimization.
GAAP Research and Development (R&D) expenses in the third quarter of 2019 were $240 million , a decrease of 23% compared to the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP R&D expenses were $242 million , or 5.7% of quarterly revenues, in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $243 million , or 5.4%, in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease in R&D expenses resulted from cost of labor reductions, pipeline optimization and project terminations, partially offset by increased investment in early stage projects.
GAAP Selling and Marketing (S&M) expenses in the third quarter of 2019 were $595 million , a decrease of 15% compared to the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP S&M expenses were $551 million , or 12.9% of quarterly revenues, in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $634 million , or 14.0%, in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease was mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency measures as part of the restructuring plan.
GAAP General and Administrative (G&A) expenses in the third quarter of 2019 were $285 million , a decrease of 8% compared to the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP G&A expenses were $270 million , or 6.3% of quarterly revenues, in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $284 million , or 6.3%, in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease was mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency measures as part of the restructuring plan.
GAAP operating loss in the third quarter of 2019 was $81 million , compared to GAAP operating income of $16 million in the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP operating income in the third quarter of 2019 was $1,051 million , a decrease of 5% compared to $1,104 million in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease in non-GAAP operating income was mainly due to lower profits in North America , mainly resulting from a decline in COPAXONE revenues due to generic competition and lower revenues from certain other specialty products in North America , partially offset by cost reductions and efficiency measures as part of the restructuring plan and higher revenues from AUSTEDO.
EBITDA (non-GAAP operating income, which excludes amortization and certain other items, as well as depreciation expenses) was $1,183 million in the third quarter of 2019, a decrease of 6% compared to $1,254 million in the third quarter of 2018.
GAAP financial expenses were $211 million in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $229 million in the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP financial expenses were $208 million in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $236 million in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease in non-GAAP financial expenses was mainly due to lower interest expenses resulting from debt prepayments during the period, as well as gains on our hedging and derivatives activities.
GAAPnet loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was $314 million in the third quarter of 2019, compared to net loss of $273 million in the third quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders and non-GAAP diluted EPS in the third quarter of 2019 were $637 million and $0.58 , respectively, compared to $694 million and $0.68 in the third quarter of 2018. The decrease in non-GAAP net income and EPS in the third quarter of 2019 is mainly due to higher tax expenses and lower operating profit, partially offset by lower finance expenses.
No reparte dividendo, asi que no es ni DGI, ni growth, ni nada de eso. Quizás value o apuesta especulativa. Los que estamos dentro muchos es por influencia de la OCU. La travesía ha sido larga, dura, con la acción llegando a tocar los 6$. Parece que ese es el suelo y que ahora viene una lenta recuperación, salvo que el acuerdo final por el juicio de los opiáceos sea mucho peor de lo que el CEO estimó hace unos meses (ofrecía 23.000 M$ en valor de medicinas, cuyo coste era aprox 5.000 M$ para la empresa, además de algo de cash).
Parece que los nuevos lanzamientos (Ajovy y Austedo) empiezan a sumar más que el deterioro de los ingresos de genéricos y pérdida de patente Copaxone. La deuda va poco a poco bajando.
Es para los muy pacientes, quizás a final de año pueda llegar a los 20$, con el catalizador del juicio, tanto para bien como para mal.
las nuevas acciones que emiten sabes a que se deben? Forman parte del plan de compensaciones al board o son ampliaciones de capital (de las que no se anuncian para nada)?
Yo creo que una vez se sepa que ocurre con el tema juicio opiaceos, y en 2023 se cumplen los planes del CEO de que el ratio net debt / ebitda sea por debajo de 4, debería cotizar más arriba. Según los últimos resultados, ya han bajado el ratio a 4,95 así que no veo difícil cumplir los planes previstos.
Estoy dentro aldedor de 14$, mi idea es salir a 20$ en aprox 2 años.
Le informamos que se ha interpuesto una demanda colectiva / plan de distribución por la compra de títulos TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES (ISIN CODE: US8816242098) para los clientes que compraron títulos durante el periodo comprendido entre 06 de febrero de 2014 y el 10 de mayo de 2019, inclusive, ambas fechas, y sufrió pérdidas por ello.
Este aviso se le envía ya que usted cumple con los requisitos para adherirse a la demanda y se acudirá a la misma. En caso de resolución positiva los miembros aptos pueden tener derecho a una recuperación del fondo de distribución surgido en el acuerdo extrajudicial por demanda colectiva.
Para cualquier pregunta al respecto, no dude en ponerse en contacto con nosotros.
, si te informan de algo concreto te agradecería lo comentases 