Admiral Group (ADM)

La tengo en el punto de mira. Me voy a esperar hasta octubre noviembre a ver como pinta la cosa después del verano ya que también tengo otras candidatas. Si tuviese que invertir hoy compraría Admiral.

Ala, espero que estéis contentos. Después de decir que me voy a esperar unos meses en comprar la acción (que no es tonta y sabe todo lo que se comenta por aquí) va ir to the moon :rocket:

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Lo que estoy viendo es un peregrinaje al secadero

Este artículo es de abril cuando cotizaba en torno a los 25GBP y este señor ya pensaba que era un jamón ibérico de bellota

https://www.ukdividendstocks.com/blog/admiral-7-5-dividend-yield

p.s. en julio me di un buen atracón de jamón :scream:

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Madrugan

Admiral Group plc will be announcing its HY 2022 Results on 10th August 2022 at 07.00 BST.
The Results presentation and live Q&A will be held virtually at 10.30 BST

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Imagino que los resultados no serán buenos, padecerá igualmente de la subida de los costes y falta de piezas de repuesto igual que sus competidores, sin embargo puede que sean mejores los de estos ya que Admiral re-asegura parte de sus pólizas así que el impacto debería ser menor.

A ver qué tal se los toma el mercado y si se cumple la profecía de @Marcos_Torcal_Garcia :grin:

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Este foro se va animando :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Aquí otro que estaba acumulando liquidez en libras devaluadas y las está dando salida con seguradoras británicas: ADM (x2 en el ostión) y LGEN (x1).

Hojas de tabaco x Primas de seguros

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Muchas gracias @vash :smiling_face:

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Pues no se si lo entendido yo bien.
Pero +4% en apertura y bajada de dividendo? :thinking:

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En el 2021 pagaron un dividendo a cuenta de 115p + un dividendo especial por la venta de los portales de 46p

En el 2022 van a pagar un dividendo a cuenta de 60p + un dividendo especial por la venta de los portales de 45p

Dividends and solvency

The Group’s dividend policy is to pay 65% of post-tax profits as a normal dividend and to pay a further special dividend comprising earnings not required to be held in the Group for solvency or buffers.

The Board has declared an interim dividend of 60.0 pence per share (approximately £177 million) split as follows:

  • 44.2 pence per share normal dividend
  • A special dividend of 15.8 pence per share

The 2022 interim dividend (excluding the further special dividend referred to below) reflects a pay-out ratio of 90% of earnings per share. 60.0 pence per share is 48% lower than the interim 2021 dividend (115.0 pence per share) with the movement being in line with the reduction in profit noted above.

The Board has declared a further special dividend of 45.0 pence per share reflecting the final payment of the phased return to shareholders of the proceeds from the sale of the Penguin Portals comparison businesses which completed in 2021. This payment, along with the previous two payments of 46.0 pence per share, brings the total amount returned to shareholders to just over £400 million.

The total interim dividend, including the further special dividend is 105.0 pence per share, split 44.2 pence per share normal element and 60.8 pence per share, special element.

The payment date is 30 September 2022, ex-dividend date 1 September 2022 and record date 2 September 2022.

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Ha recortado dividendo, ¿entonces un inversor DGI no invertiría aquí? ¿O ahora los criterios se han flexibilizado?

Solo por tratar de entenderlo.

Para mi a 18 - 19 pounds es compra clara. Puede que incluso a 20. Yo no entro a valorar si es DGI, Value, Growth, trading, B&H, o como lo queráis llamar.

Inversión: Una operación de inversión es en la que, después de un análisis exhaustivo, promete una seguridad del capital y un rendimiento satisfactorio

Olvidaos de las etiquetas.

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No

Por eso me sorprende ver a tantos foreros metiéndole los ahorros

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O quizás el dividendo pagado en el 2021 no fue “normal”. Salvo esa anomalía yo veo una gráfica bastante DGI.

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OK @vash , a mí también me sorprendía porque como muchos os declaráis DGI no me encajaba mucho. Aunque esta en el medio y largo plazo tiene unos crecimientos de resultados y dividendos muy buenos, que al fin y al cabo es de lo que se trata.

@Marcos_Torcal_Garcia Mi pregunta era otra, pero muy de acuerdo con esto otro que comentas. Las etiquetas limitan y te hacen perder el foco de lo realmente importante.

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Tienes que seguir la evolución dividendos ordinarios, @ruindog , o en este caso particular incluso puedes añadirle los “special habituales”, todo es debatible. Pero no se pueden mezclar con la distribución de dividendos por la venta de Penguin.

En este 2022H1 el ordinario y suma de ordinario más special habitual ha caído respecto a 2021.

Si se quiere ser DGI estricto ya se sabe, a por los aristócratas “usanos” y nos dejamos de milongas. Sota, caballo y rey.

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Analyst Note 08/10/2022

Admiral delivered a near 20% rise in operating profit to GBP 257.2 million in the first half versus the prepandemic comparable period of 2019. This was driven by a combination of business growth, pricing, and underwriting. While Admiral estimates around 11% claims inflation in the U.K. motor market, it raised prices by 16% for the back end of the second half. Yet, management expanded the business with a 3.4% rise in vehicles insured. Admiral looks to be well ahead of the market in terms of pricing and growth. The drivers of claims inflation have not changed, with a normalisation of U.K. driving patterns and a rise in the prices of used cars. Labour shortages and wage inflation are also adding pressure to the cost of claims and repairs. However, Admiral has outlined a policy of margin over growth for the second half and said there are signs that secondhand-car prices may start to decline in the second half. The broader U.K. business showed 10.6% growth in households insured, as we believe it continues to take share from others.

In the international business, while the profit result was negative, we are encouraged by the growth in the first half. Vehicles insured developed by mid-single-digit percentages across the board, with particularly strong delivery in Italy and Spain. Used-vehicle prices have not seen anywhere near the rise that they have in the United Kingdom and the United States, and that came through in the positive European result. However, with loss ratios rising by 14% in the U.S. at large, Admiral posted a negative $25.7 million net result. Most of the U.S. motor market is on a six-month renewal cycle, which should help with the speed of Admiral’s 23% price rise.

We maintain our GBP 35 fair value estimate while we update our model and do not anticipate we will change it by more than 10%. We also maintain our narrow economic moat rating, which is predicated on proprietary technology-driven intangible assets.

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En este artículo explican que se debe tomar como referencia el dividendo pagado en el 2019 (140p). Esperan que en este 2022 se paguen 147.40p (dividendo especial por la venta de portales aparte) y 156.60p en el el 2023. Hablando en plata, no hay recorte :rofl:

2019 financials are more representative, as 2020 and 2021 benefited from lower claims frequency due to COVID-19; 2021 also included cash proceeds from the Price Comparison Website (“PCW”) disposal.

Admiral’s Dividend Yield is somewhat subjective because of the one-off component in recent dividends. The dividend was 140p in 2019 and 279p in 2021, but the latter included 92p funded by the PCW disposal. For H1 2022, the total interim dividend is 105p, or 60p excluding the final 45.0p funded by the PCW disposal; the 60p figure represents a small decline from the 63p declared in H1 2019

Admiral targets paying out 65% of its EPS as regular dividends and has been paying special dividends every year. Including special dividends but excluding the PCW disposal proceeds, the Payout Ratio has been near 90%. If we apply this ratio to our forecasts, we arrive at dividends of 192.4p for 2022 (including 45p from PCW) and 156.6p for 2023.

On balance, we believe the 2023 forecasted dividend of 156.6p is the most representative. This implies a Dividend Yield of 7.0%.

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