Chowder

Uso el contaje de Baker Hughes que ha puesto @fdiazb00.
También puedes verlo poniendo rig count en Seeking alpha, pero en definitiva informan el de Baker Hughes. Sale cada viernes.

Gracias por la corrección.

muchas gracias @luisg y @fdiazb00,

Having had extensive experience investing in the oil sector in the past (at one time I was 100% invested in oil service companies) I learned the time to invest during the bust cycle was when the rig count started to rise. That indicated an expected rise in demand, which should be an expected rise in performance.This was the first week the rig count has risen and it jumped by 10, which surprised me, I would have expected maybe 2 or 3.

What I will do now is wait for next Friday’s report, and if that report shows a rise in rig count, it’s at that time KMI will be my next add on purchase.I’m not trying to nail the bottom, I probably already missed that. I’m trying to catch the momentum indicating the energy sector may finally be coming to life.

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Parece que ADP está de moda. Cartera CQSS, Stock del mes de DVK y Chowder habla de ella también.

"I’ve had ADP in a number of portfolios for some time now. For those of you who pay attention to total return, it is up 139% in the Young Folk Portfolio that I blog about. It is a full position.

Those of you who are familiar with my work know that I talk about taking the ‘condition of the market’ into consideration when investing. Back around 2010 and 2011, those of us who used FAST Graphs wouldn’t consider buying a company whose price was above the orange line, yet below the blue line. The blue line representing historical PE. At the time, the common phrase was, there are better investments elsewhere and the focus was on deep discount to fair value. Being simply undervalued wasn’t good enough.

The cost basis for ADP in the young folk portfolio is $55 yet at the time, $55 seemed too much to pay for ADP. ADP hasn’t seen a price that low in 7 years. Since I believe the true value of a company is in the future, I ignored the warnings at the time that ADP was too expensive. My focus was simply on buying good companies that I wanted to own long term and build as I went along.

I will stipulate that I do believe ADP is fairly valued today at $132, and I believe the same thing at $132 that I did when it was at $55. The true value of a company is in the future. An example of how that will work.

For the past 10 years, ADP has shown a 15.78% compounded annual rate of growth, dividends NOT reinvested. If we lower that CAGR to just 8% over the next 10 years, today’s price of $132 will become $285, presenting a triple digit gain. And this is with cutting total return almost in half of what it has done in the past 10 years.

This is why I don’t give the same level of consciousness to valuations as many people do. It’s because I believe today’s valuation will be nothing more than a lump on the log 20 years from now. … The true value of a company is in the future.

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Esta semana también han tenido una interesante discusión sobre Water Utilities (AWK, AWR, WTRG)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/3035031-rnsmth/5301222-dgr-chit-chat#comment-86459027

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Ahora llego ahí. Hace unos 10 días también trataron el tema:

-AWK.
-AWR.
-WTRG.

Pongo trozos de la conversación ya que en unas semanas se borran los comentarios allí.

RON
“WTRG has a current yield of 2.55%. AWR’s is 1.82%
Dividend Saftey scores are very close, both in the Very Safe range.
Dividend growth rates are similar.
AWR this past year was 9%, 5 year is 7%, 20 year is 5%.
WTRG last year was 7%. 5 year is 7%, 20 year is 7%.”

CHOWDER
" I can understand from a dividend aspect where one could find WTRG more appealing than AWR, but from my perspective both are low yielding companies and when I look at lower yields I also consider capital gain potential.
I realize the numbers from the past may differ going forward, but it’s performance trend I look at, not the numbers per se. By performance trend I mean who has historically provided better total return than the other over various time frames, and how consistent has those differences been.
Total return, dividends NOT reinvested.

AWR … 3 yr. 54.3%
WTRG … 3 yr 24.0%

AWR … 5 yr. 101.9%
WTRG … 5 yr. 72.6%

AWR … 10 yr. 386.0%
WTRG … 10 yr. 130.1%

So since I look for total return trend potential in lower yielding companies, I have to look at AWR first.
One of the first things I looked at them anyway was coverage area. I have AWK for the east coast, I was thinking I may want something on the west coast, and AWR fills that need as well.
Again, I haven’t done a full review, I want to look into both companies a little deeper and see what business growth potential each has and who has the advantage there. "

DANIEL CLULEY
" The geographies are a good point. Here are geographies of each of the top 3:
AWK:www.amwater.com/…
WTRG (Aqua America):www.aquaamerica.com/…
AWR:americanstateswatercompany.gcs-web.com/…

AWR was historically mostly California but also has some mid-atlantic east coast and southern operations through agreements to provide services at and around U.S. Military bases. Good for diversification of the geographical footprint. I might look into starting a position in AWR just for that alone."

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Volvemos a los básicos.

"If something appears overvalued, and since we truly don’t know what a company’s value is, then I prefer to invest small where it doesn’t make much difference and then manage the position from there.

If it falls back I buy a larger dollar amount than originally purchased. If it continues to rise I continue to buy smaller dollar amounts.

There are people here buying in $500 and $1,000 lots and treating it as though it is the most important decision of their investing career. Fact is, it won’t mean nuthin’ 20 or 30 years from now when the position has been built to $30K, $50K, $100K or more. What will mean more is the continued building of share count."

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"We were discussing whether water utilities are profitable or not. We need to keep in mind that utilities are regulated for the most part. They are limited to how much profit they are allowed to earn. Utilities are generally allowed to have a return on equity (ROE) between 9% and 11%. That is the sweet spot.

Here are just some ROE examples:

  • SRE … 11.63%
  • WEC … 11.36%
  • XEL … 10.88%
  • SO … 10.05%
  • NEE … 7.06%
  • AWR … 14.99% (The little engine that could)
  • AWK … 10.32%
  • WTRG … 6.60%

The rest is up to management."

Una pregunta, alguna vez Chowder ha publicado su rentabilidad? Supera al índice? esas cosas tan picantonas vamos

No que yo sepa.
Una vez puso su cartera actual (la tenemos en este hilo).
Lo que tienes para referencia es la cartera de su hijo, donde pone la rentabilidad por posiciones y global (creo en 10 años el CAGR>20%).

Interesante las fuentes de información que usa y el valor que les da.

"By the way, I know others prefer free stuff and that’s okay by me, but for those of you reading this who might be interested in a subscription based newsletter, I subscribe to IQ Trends and Valuentum. Valuentum by far is the better value in my opinion. It offers much more than IQT.

I also use Simply Safe Dividends and FAST Graphs."

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superior a 20%? chapó pues. Aunque no comparto algunas cosas está claro que es un estilo que cuaja con muchos de nosotros, pero aparte de los textos la rentabilidad importa obviamente. Va a haber que copiarle la cartera :rofl:

Cartera de su hijo. Post de enero 2020.

"*** FOR THE RECORD***

This portfolio now has 10 years of tracking as a dividend growth portfolio, $500 per month in cash contributions since 2009.

Total dividends received at the end of 2009 was … $684.38

Total dividends received at the end of 2019 was … $6042.08

Total compounded annual rate of growth … 25.01%

For those focused on total return (I do not), the compounded annual growth rate has been 19.53%.

The initial goal of this portfolio, in order to achieve the $3 Million by age 65 (started at age 24), was to grow the portfolio at a compounded annual growth rate of 8.25%, dividends reinvested, continuous $500 per month cash contribution. I have more than doubled that growth rate after 10 years.

As you can see, the portfolio is well ahead of the established goals initially presented, and this has allowed me to take fewer risks in order to achieve the long term goal."

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Muchas gracias @luisg, espectacular rentabilidad! Y entiendo que sin fangs jeje

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¿No menciona ninguna aportación inicial? 684.38$ en dividendos teniendo una cartera de 6000$ es un yield del 11% :open_mouth:

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Creo que la cifra inicial eran 42k. Resultado de retención 1/3 de pagas, regalos cumpleaños, estrenas, trabajos estudiante… etc que le ejecutaba el padre.

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728729-chowder/5346717-young-folk-portfolio

Aquí pongo el enlace del blog acerca del desarrollo de la cartera de su hijo.

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“It was 11 years ago when I switched the Young Folk Portfolio over to a dividend growth portfolio. I knew at the time that the goal was to achieve $120K per year income from dividends. I didn’t want to call it Project $120,000 so I determined a portfolio value that could generate that level of income and came up with Project $3 Million.
Since the owner of the portfolio was just 24 years old, I used a 40 year time frame and based on the value of that portfolio at the time and the monthly contribution of $500 he was willing to make, I needed an 8.25% compounded annualized rate of return. I wanted as much of that return as I could get from dividends and dividends being reinvested because I didn’t want to have to depend on receiving more cash from his monthly contributions.
That’s when I decided to tune the high yield + high dividend growth = high total return formula for this particular portfolio’s long term goal.
I used a 5 year dividend growth number plus current yield and chose to use 12 as the final number. In other words, a 3% yield plus a 5 year dividend growth rate would give me my 12 number. I wanted a number approximately 50% higher than the CAGR portfolio growth number I needed in order to achieve 8.25% portfolio growth. The number would have varied for others based on their own specific goals, but those were the numbers I needed to show so people started referring to the formula as the Chowder Number. People started using that number 12 as their goal as well, and because so many people started using it, David Fish started including it in the CCC report where it still resides today.
An example … One of the latest purchases in the young folk portfolio was AWK. It has a yield of 2.20% and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 10.07% giving me a Chowder Number of 12.27%. It meets the objective.
I didn’t follow this concept the last 5-6 years because momentum was in play and not value. In a raging bull market I go with the beat and raise tactic, in a trading range or declining market I’ll rely more on the Chowder Number.
Do I apply it to all companies? No. It depends on what I want a company’s role to be within the portfolio. … Do the numbers change? Yes but with it adjustments are made, it just depends on the situation and the condition of the market.”

Tres calculadoras para quien desee calcular el CAGR necesario para alcanzar su objetivo.

https://investinganswers.com/calculators/return/compound-annual-growth-rate-cagr-calculator-1262
https://www.hughcalc.org/savings.cgi
http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/discount_rate_calculator.htm

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Es curioso que todo dios este utilizando su numero y el haya estado 5-6 años sin hacerle ni caso

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la gente, incluido yo, no lee los detalles, a mi se me ha pasado también esta parte del comentario.
Trato de consumir tanta información que me atraganto como el monstruo de las galletas

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