Esta semana también han tenido una interesante discusión sobre Water Utilities (AWK, AWR, WTRG)
Ahora llego ahí. Hace unos 10 días también trataron el tema:
-AWK.
-AWR.
-WTRG.
Pongo trozos de la conversación ya que en unas semanas se borran los comentarios allí.
RON
“WTRG has a current yield of 2.55%. AWR’s is 1.82%
Dividend Saftey scores are very close, both in the Very Safe range.
Dividend growth rates are similar.
AWR this past year was 9%, 5 year is 7%, 20 year is 5%.
WTRG last year was 7%. 5 year is 7%, 20 year is 7%.”
CHOWDER
" I can understand from a dividend aspect where one could find WTRG more appealing than AWR, but from my perspective both are low yielding companies and when I look at lower yields I also consider capital gain potential.
I realize the numbers from the past may differ going forward, but it’s performance trend I look at, not the numbers per se. By performance trend I mean who has historically provided better total return than the other over various time frames, and how consistent has those differences been.
Total return, dividends NOT reinvested.
AWR … 3 yr. 54.3%
WTRG … 3 yr 24.0%
AWR … 5 yr. 101.9%
WTRG … 5 yr. 72.6%
AWR … 10 yr. 386.0%
WTRG … 10 yr. 130.1%
So since I look for total return trend potential in lower yielding companies, I have to look at AWR first.
One of the first things I looked at them anyway was coverage area. I have AWK for the east coast, I was thinking I may want something on the west coast, and AWR fills that need as well.
Again, I haven’t done a full review, I want to look into both companies a little deeper and see what business growth potential each has and who has the advantage there. "
DANIEL CLULEY
" The geographies are a good point. Here are geographies of each of the top 3:
AWK:www.amwater.com/…
WTRG (Aqua America):www.aquaamerica.com/…
AWR:americanstateswatercompany.gcs-web.com/…
AWR was historically mostly California but also has some mid-atlantic east coast and southern operations through agreements to provide services at and around U.S. Military bases. Good for diversification of the geographical footprint. I might look into starting a position in AWR just for that alone."
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Volvemos a los básicos.
"If something appears overvalued, and since we truly don’t know what a company’s value is, then I prefer to invest small where it doesn’t make much difference and then manage the position from there.
If it falls back I buy a larger dollar amount than originally purchased. If it continues to rise I continue to buy smaller dollar amounts.
There are people here buying in $500 and $1,000 lots and treating it as though it is the most important decision of their investing career. Fact is, it won’t mean nuthin’ 20 or 30 years from now when the position has been built to $30K, $50K, $100K or more. What will mean more is the continued building of share count."
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"We were discussing whether water utilities are profitable or not. We need to keep in mind that utilities are regulated for the most part. They are limited to how much profit they are allowed to earn. Utilities are generally allowed to have a return on equity (ROE) between 9% and 11%. That is the sweet spot.
Here are just some ROE examples:
- SRE … 11.63%
- WEC … 11.36%
- XEL … 10.88%
- SO … 10.05%
- NEE … 7.06%
- AWR … 14.99% (The little engine that could)
- AWK … 10.32%
- WTRG … 6.60%
The rest is up to management."
Una pregunta, alguna vez Chowder ha publicado su rentabilidad? Supera al índice? esas cosas tan picantonas vamos
No que yo sepa.
Una vez puso su cartera actual (la tenemos en este hilo).
Lo que tienes para referencia es la cartera de su hijo, donde pone la rentabilidad por posiciones y global (creo en 10 años el CAGR>20%).
Interesante las fuentes de información que usa y el valor que les da.
"By the way, I know others prefer free stuff and that’s okay by me, but for those of you reading this who might be interested in a subscription based newsletter, I subscribe to IQ Trends and Valuentum. Valuentum by far is the better value in my opinion. It offers much more than IQT.
I also use Simply Safe Dividends and FAST Graphs."
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superior a 20%? chapó pues. Aunque no comparto algunas cosas está claro que es un estilo que cuaja con muchos de nosotros, pero aparte de los textos la rentabilidad importa obviamente. Va a haber que copiarle la cartera 
Cartera de su hijo. Post de enero 2020.
"*** FOR THE RECORD***
This portfolio now has 10 years of tracking as a dividend growth portfolio, $500 per month in cash contributions since 2009.
Total dividends received at the end of 2009 was … $684.38
Total dividends received at the end of 2019 was … $6042.08
Total compounded annual rate of growth … 25.01%
For those focused on total return (I do not), the compounded annual growth rate has been 19.53%.
The initial goal of this portfolio, in order to achieve the $3 Million by age 65 (started at age 24), was to grow the portfolio at a compounded annual growth rate of 8.25%, dividends reinvested, continuous $500 per month cash contribution. I have more than doubled that growth rate after 10 years.
As you can see, the portfolio is well ahead of the established goals initially presented, and this has allowed me to take fewer risks in order to achieve the long term goal."
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¿No menciona ninguna aportación inicial? 684.38$ en dividendos teniendo una cartera de 6000$ es un yield del 11% 
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Creo que la cifra inicial eran 42k. Resultado de retención 1/3 de pagas, regalos cumpleaños, estrenas, trabajos estudiante… etc que le ejecutaba el padre.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728729-chowder/5346717-young-folk-portfolio
Aquí pongo el enlace del blog acerca del desarrollo de la cartera de su hijo.
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“It was 11 years ago when I switched the Young Folk Portfolio over to a dividend growth portfolio. I knew at the time that the goal was to achieve $120K per year income from dividends. I didn’t want to call it Project $120,000 so I determined a portfolio value that could generate that level of income and came up with Project $3 Million.
Since the owner of the portfolio was just 24 years old, I used a 40 year time frame and based on the value of that portfolio at the time and the monthly contribution of $500 he was willing to make, I needed an 8.25% compounded annualized rate of return. I wanted as much of that return as I could get from dividends and dividends being reinvested because I didn’t want to have to depend on receiving more cash from his monthly contributions.
That’s when I decided to tune the high yield + high dividend growth = high total return formula for this particular portfolio’s long term goal.
I used a 5 year dividend growth number plus current yield and chose to use 12 as the final number. In other words, a 3% yield plus a 5 year dividend growth rate would give me my 12 number. I wanted a number approximately 50% higher than the CAGR portfolio growth number I needed in order to achieve 8.25% portfolio growth. The number would have varied for others based on their own specific goals, but those were the numbers I needed to show so people started referring to the formula as the Chowder Number. People started using that number 12 as their goal as well, and because so many people started using it, David Fish started including it in the CCC report where it still resides today.
An example … One of the latest purchases in the young folk portfolio was AWK. It has a yield of 2.20% and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 10.07% giving me a Chowder Number of 12.27%. It meets the objective.
I didn’t follow this concept the last 5-6 years because momentum was in play and not value. In a raging bull market I go with the beat and raise tactic, in a trading range or declining market I’ll rely more on the Chowder Number.
Do I apply it to all companies? No. It depends on what I want a company’s role to be within the portfolio. … Do the numbers change? Yes but with it adjustments are made, it just depends on the situation and the condition of the market.”
Tres calculadoras para quien desee calcular el CAGR necesario para alcanzar su objetivo.
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Es curioso que todo dios este utilizando su numero y el haya estado 5-6 años sin hacerle ni caso
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la gente, incluido yo, no lee los detalles, a mi se me ha pasado también esta parte del comentario.
Trato de consumir tanta información que me atraganto como el monstruo de las galletas
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Este hilo ya es largo y tiene mucha información aparte de largos párrafos en inglés. Eso no facilita encontrar los detalles.
No obstante, éste detalle sí que se puede encontrar en la charla Chowder que hay colgada en recursos del foro.
En sus últimos comentarios, habla que con el mercado actual, vuelve al “value”, es decir, a considerar la suma de dividendo y crecimiento para lograr sus objetivos. Eso sí, con el freno de crecimiento y aumento de dividendos (que ya no recortes), quizá debamos tener en cuenta las empresas que anuncien mayores aumentos (él considera compra en torno a 10% o mayor).
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Un recordatorio acerca de establecer objetivos de cartera. Explica cómo lo hace.
"I always set goals but there has to be an end result. What is it you want your portfolio to do? In determining my goals I ask myself 3 questions.
- How much do you want?
- When do you want it?
- How sure are you it will be there?
Using online calculators (las tenéis justo arriba), I know to the penny where the dividend cash flows need to be at the end of each year.
For example, if the goal is have $40K in income at retirement and you currently are earning $10K and have just 10 years until retirement, then I know the dividend cash flows need to grow at a compounded annual rate of growth of 14.87%.
Where the dividend cash flows need to be at the end of each year:
0. $10,000.00
- $11,487.00
- $13,195.17
- $15,157.23
- $17,411.11
- $20,000.14
- $22,974.16
- $26,390.42
- $30,314.68
- $34,822.47
- $40,000.57
BINGO! … Goal achieved.
Income is my primary objective, and knowing what those numbers need to look like at the end of every year drives my decision making choices during the year. This often times has people questioning some of my moves like, why buy T when AAPL is expected to show greater total return?
Income is the objective and must be achieved first. Once it is achieved then I can buy some AAPL but the primary objective is just that, primary and has priority at all times.
There are other more short term goals you can fill in around the primary, but the primary has to be achieved first."
Una vez puesto esto, debo decir que el retorno total no debería estar reñido con el objetivo de cartera, pero él explica repetidamente que la gente le plantea objetivos y su función es alcanzarlos siempre que sea realista. Como podeís ver, la cartera de su hijo la maneja diferente (el plazo es mucho mayor y va por encima de los objetivos planteados).
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podría alguien explicar en que consiste esta táctica?
Ya no la usa. Es para mercado alcista.
Supone comprar cuando una empresa da mejores resultados que los esperados (en los anuncios cuatrimestrales) y además anuncia que espera mejores para los siguentes meses. Ahí solía comprar independientemente del precio.
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Esta semana le estaban dando cera al “next man up” en el DGR chit-chat blog pero creo que no entro al trapo