@fran, no se trata que Chowder tenga razón o no.
Simplemente expongo sus movimientos y sus razones. Eso me ha ayudado mucho a pensar la composición de cartera y cómo manejarla.
Cada cual tiene su cartera, razones, y actúa en consecuencia.
En mi caso, no vendo mis empresas de tabaco. Quizá me lo piense cuando Vash lo haga😂.
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Actualmente Chowder tiene 3 hilos en Seeking Alpha:
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Young Folk and New to Equity Investing Portfolio: Para aquellos que empiezan a invertir independientemente de su edad y para la gente joven que o bien empieza a invertir o bien ya invierte pero le quedan más de 15 años hasta jubilación.
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A Retirement Portfolio: Para aquellos a los que les queda poco para retirarse o bien ya lo están.
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Chit-Chat/Alternate Investment Strategy: Básicamente le dan al pico y hablan de jardinería y otras cosas. De vez en cuando comentan algún movimiento de mercado.
Los cito porque en función de qué hilo es, la orientación de los comentarios es una u otra. Por ej: En el hilo para gente mayor, es frecuente “recortar” una posición para obtener dinero y añadir a otra empresa con mejor oportunidad. O bien recortar una empresa que ha subido mucho de valor y guardar el dinero. Pero esos movimientos no están previstos para aquellos que empiezan ya que la idea es construir todas las posiciones con aportaciones periódicas.
En la cartera joven, también se venden empresas como ha ocurrido con KHC.
A partir de ahora, pondré de qué hilo proviene el comentario, para evitar información confusa en el sentido que a veces pongo que recorta una posición y en el siguiente habla de centrarse en aumentar otra o que no hay que recortar.
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- Young Folk and New to Equity investing -
"A word for you young folks.
I know a lot of the older folks come here and try to show you their expertise in managing a portfolio, but a lot of you, especially those of you who lurk without commenting, may at times get frustrated with all of the moves the older folks make and or suggest and you think you have to do something. You have to learn to ignore them. You have to learn to be patient.
This blog is about my 34 year old son’s portfolio, and yes, while managing it I wish I had more money to invest at times, yes I wish I could take advantage of situations at times, and no, I am not going to make a habit of trimming so I can move elsewhere. I have done so a couple of times, but now that everything is in place, like you I have to be patient.
My son owns 55 positions and only 2 of them are in the red. A 53-2 record is pretty remarkable in any sport, even investing. It hasn’t always been that way though. We were investing during the Great Recession and everything we bought dropped in price immediately. A sea of red!
I knew that in time, if we stayed patient, we would have a sea of green and I think we have done that. It’s hard to be patient in this instant gratification society but if you want to be successful as an investor, you’ll need to master the technique.
Understand your limitations, stay in your lanes, and try to ignore what others are doing, simply focus on yourself."
[…]
“My goal may different than others though. I’m trying to keep positions as equally weighted as possible as I don’t know who will outperform over the next 30 years. I simply want to be sure that whoever it is, the position was properly sized to where it is a huge benefit. AMGN is the smallest position in the account I wish to add it in.”
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El famoso concepto de Beat&Raise.
Muchos no lo terminamos de entender o lo aplicamos.
Quizá le sirva a alguien.
- Young Folk and New to Equity investing -
"The beat and raise strategy is a momentum based strategy and is why I continuously say you have to pay attention to the condition of the market.
When portfolios continue to hit all-time highs, I am going to continue taking advantage of that momentum.
The time will come when value is the play but value hasn’t been the play for several years and why I ignore most comments who even discuss it."
[…]
" Most people DO NOT know how to define value. Too many people define value as being cheap. Cheap does not equate to value.
I talked about it yesterday, I purchased MA on 5/31/17. At the time it was at a 52 week high, had a PE of 30, never corrected below my cost basis and two years later the position is up 108%. (I’m sorry for the arbitrary date but that’s the date I bought!)
People who can’t wrap their head around the beat and raise concept, the concept of momentum, and understanding that quality comes with a premium would not have owned MA. They would still be sitting there twiddling their damn thumbs over trying to nickle and dime the position to death on getting a good price. I guess my price was higher than their choice but it was a great price based on where it is now.
I made the switch from value to momentum! Others can say it was still a good value then but it was the momentum babee that doubled the position in two years."
[…]
"Since this is a young folks blog, not middle aged or older folks, and since young folks haven’t learned yet how to manage a portfolio or able to read the market, I take value in a different direction.
Where some may focus on yield, yield doesn’t mean much to a person collecting only $20 per quarter, that will change in time. One thing all new investors focus on is profits/losses. That too may change in time but not until they have several years of experience, maybe even more than that.
So, I define value based on earnings growth, not yield. I do this differently with older folks but I have worked with enough young people to know, they want portfolio value growth and the best way to achieve that is by purchasing companies who are exceeding earnings results and saying they expect to do even better going forward. … Budda-bing, budda-boom, easy peasy. It’s why this portfolio in this blog has a 53-2 win/loss ratio (positions in the green vs in the red). And trust me, newbies need that in order to build confidence."
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Curioso que use el ejemplo de MA y no el de MMM a 260$
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- Young Folk and New to Equity investing -
"People have admitted that free trades are important to them because they can only add 4 or 5 shares at a time. … 4 or 5 shares? And one is going to worry about valuations? … Are you kidding me???
When the money shows in this account, the money gets invested immediately. I don’t even check valuations anymore and haven’t in a while.
I have to laugh at some people. My son is 34 and I fully expect his portfolio has to look out at least 50 years based on his age. It’s absolutely crazy thinking to even consider what the valuation was for a 4 or 5 share purchase 50 years ago. The decision to buy today or not is not the most important decision of your investing career young people. You really need to ignore a lot of the older folks who weren’t investing at your age and had to hurry up and catch up.
If you ask me, too many people are full of themselves, trying to be too smart.
Keep it simple! Build small, build out, then build up. It’s as simple as that!"
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- Young Folk and New to Equity investing
"From where I sit, if 55 years of age, and after a 10 year raging bull market, do I think it will continue for another 10 years to age 65? … I don’t think so, and when closing in on 60 I don’t want to have companies that are expected to draw down significantly in value if that’s a concern to someone. So I would be looking at becoming more defensive.
Now once again, if I am going to own cyclical companies, or companies sensitive to the economy, as I position myself for retirement, I want Aristocrats or Kings where I can help to insure my retirement income."
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- Young Folk and New to Equity investing
"The beauty of the young folk portfolios is that most of them are investing small amounts of money on a regular basis over a long period of time. Today’s valuation is irrelevant to most people who have time before they need the money.
M* says fair value O is $59, any idea how long it may take to drop to that point, provided it does?
Most young folks are investing $1,000 or less per investment. Many of them buying 4 or 5 shares at a time. It’s not today’s valuation they should be concerned about, it’s what the valuation will be years from now, and in order to benefit from that, now is the time to build"
[…]
"A word about dividends that I think are sometimes overlooked.
When the market is correcting, and taking share prices lower, which includes your portfolio values, the dividends coming into your account every month add ballast and actually prevent your portfolio value from dropping as low as the market does. The more dividends you have coming in every month, the more ballast that is being added to your account.
This blog is about my son’s portfolio and he invests $500 every month into it. Now I want you to think about your company 401K, what helps make that account grow more is the match your employer makes. Now, let’s apply that concept to your portfolio.
My son is averaging more than $500 per month in dividends, he also contributes $500 per month in new cash. The market is acting like his employer at this time matching dollar for dollar. As time goes on, and these dividends grow, the market will be doubling his match and tripling his match and wouldn’t you love your employer to do that?
So don’t let people talk you into thinking dividends aren’t important. They are! They are necessary to provide you with even more cash to invest than you can afford out of your paycheck.
Think about it!"
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Esta afirmación me genera una duda respecto al interés compuesto.
Si lo importante a lo hora de recibir los dividendos es el número de acciones que tienes sobre una empresa, cómo puede afectar el interés compuesto?
Quiero decir, una empresa me da $20 en dividendos que reinvierto, pero la acción de esa empresa cuesta $30.
Qué es lo que hacen esos $20, aumentar el valor de mi posición o aumentar el número de acciones?
En el segundo caso, cómo es posible ya que los dividendos que recibo son inferiores al valor de la acción.
Sé que es una pregunta muy básica, pero la afirmación tan tajante de Chowder me ha hecho dudar.
Lo que Chowder quiere decir es que en una estrategia DGI, realmente no importa si el valor de tu cartera sube o baja ya que lo que importa son los dividendos que recibes y estos son función directa del número de acciones que poseas.
Se supone que al elegir una empresa DGI será capaz de aumentar el dividendo aún en época de crisis, como el 2008.
Respecto a tu pregunta concreta, si reinviertes los 20€ de dividendos tendrás más acciones que cuando vuelvan a dar dividendo obtendrás más importe. Si a esto le sumas que esa empresa pueda subir el dividendo por acción te encontrarás con una doble subida ( la de la empresa y la del aumento del número de acciones)
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No lo habia leido, es lo q hago, asi, segun Chowder soy del hilo de los mayores 
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Ahora hablando en serio, lo de mirar el total return para mi es una buena guia a futuro, aunq no sepamos si una empresa va a revalorizarse ni si va a seguir incrementando el dividendo.
Yo calculo este valor pero para el total de la cartera, no para cada uno de los valores. Asi, cuando quiero hacer una compra me fijo en la RPD, en el crecimiento del dividendo y esperando q se revalorice. Aunq el mercado haga lo q quiera, q lo va a hacer.
Dependemos de cifras q nuestras empresas han cumplido en el pasado y esperamos q las sigan cumpliendo.
Son demasiadas variables a tener en cuenta y todas inciertas.
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Hola, @fran creo que lo ha explicado muy bien.
Tienes un número X de acciones, que te dan Y de dividendos con los que compras más acciones, que te dan más dividendos, y además incluye el aumento anual de dividendo pagado. Eso hace la bolsa de nieve.
Pero ojo, que no sirve cualquier empresa. Que nadie piense que con TEF, SAN y MAP lo tenemos hecho.
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Sí, lo que dice Chowder sobre la importancia del dividendo lo tengo muy claro. Lo que me perdía era sobre qué se reinverteía exactamente el dividendo.
Siguiendo con el ejemplo anterior, si mi dividendo me da $20 pero la acción cuesta $30 lo que hago es adquirir 2/3 partes de un dividendo nuevo, no?
Queda reflejado de esta manera en nuestro broker o algo?
Los 20$ que has cobrado los puedes invertir donde quieras. En la misma acción o en otra.
Si la accion cuesta 30$ tendrás que aportar otros 10$ de tu ahorro para comprar una acción ya que no es posible comprar fracciones de acciones, como si ocurre con los fondos de inversión.
Algunas empresas permiten reinvertir directamente los dividendos (habitualmente llamado DRIP) y te permiten comprar derechos sobre acciones para completar lo que te falte (en este ejemplo 10$)
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- Young Folk and New to Equity investing
“I sold AMGN in this portfolio today. I’m keeping with my theme that the drug companies simply don’t have pricing power anymore and I would rather stick with medical supplies and devices.
In this portfolio though, I used the proceeds to add to MMM and will be adding to AWK.
I did make a move in the retirement portfolio today as well. I am posting it here because it is a move I would make regardless of where one is at age wise.
I sold PFE and have already added to BDX … SYK … HD … LOW. They are suitable for anyone.”
[…]
“Yes, I made an announcement that AMGN was next man up. I changed my mind. I am selling PFE and AMGN across all portfolios in the coming days.
Pill companies just seem to have lost pricing power. They need pricing power to offset the enormous costs of creating drugs. I don’t think medical supplies will lose very much pricing power and they don’t have the cost that pill companies do in coming up with new drugs.
Drugs are sold to people, hospital supplies are sold to hospitals. Different ballgame.
BDX and SYK are dividend growth companies, they just are not high yielding companies. I think they are perfect for young people, older folks would need to look at capital gains if they don’t have long enough for the dividend growth to amount to anything.
I may be making a mistake with these moves, but some mistakes I’m more comfortable with than others.”
[…]
“JNJ is the only one I’m willing to stick with. I simply don’t want several companies in this sector. As you say, only 50% of the company is drugs, I’m okay with that with one company, especially the size of JNJ. I’ll be adding to JNJ today in an older folk portfolio”
Así pues, primero se deshizo de intermediarias (CAH, CVS, WBA) en carteras y ahora al parecer debido al debate sobre salud en USA y la elecciones 2020 que supongo también se tocará el tema, empieza a deshacerse de las que que fabrican fármacos.
Mis empresas de sector salud son CAH, CVS, JNJ, GSK y he entrado en MDT.
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- Young Folk and New to Equity investing
“Something for you folks to consider if you are down on some of your positions. It’s never fun to watch companies recently purchased turn around and correct 20% to 30%. Instinctively we stop adding shares as we think it may drop even further.
What professional investors do, is they determine rather quickly whether the drop is company specific, industry/sector specific or market related. If it’s company specific, they sell and move on to better opportunities. If it’s industry/sector specific or market related they then know the drop in price is temporary, simply a correction often caused by sector rotation or unrelated market news.
Here’s where it takes discipline in the management of your portfolio. If you still have confidence in the company to earn profits, and you have determined the drop in price is due to market conditions and not company specific conditions, add to your holdings and lower your cost basis. This allows you an opportunity to turn those positions profitable much quicker. Those of us who followed this approach during the Great Recession actually experienced this, this isn’t theory, this is experiencing talking.
Think about it!”
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Quizás me falte experiencia, pero yo nunca he visto una empresa caer 30% si no es por un problema “company specific related”.
Yo tampoco tengo mucha, estoy en esto desde 2015, pero he visto caídas de esos porcentajes en Febrero 2016, Brexit y después es las caídas de sector que tantas alegrías nos han dado a los que estamos construyendo cartera.
Si Trump y China siguen tocándose las narices uno a otro, puede que en breve haya buenas oportunidades también.
- Young Folk and New to Equity investing
"I believe that a portfolio that provides a steady and growing stream of dividend income is the best way to finance a secure retirement without having to worry about the fluctuation of stock prices.
Most investors ask, “What’s my account’s current value?”
A dividend growth investor asks, “How much dividend income/dividend cash flows did my portfolio generate?”
Most investors ask, “How much was my account up or down this year?
A dividend growth investor asks, “How much did my account’s income grow this year?”
Most investors ask, “Where is the stock market going this year?”
Dividend growth investors don’t try to predict short-term swings in the market.
A dividend growth investor doesn’t focus on capital appreciation, because we never know when it will show up. A dividend growth investor is more concerned with the safety of the dividend and its potential for growth. A dividend growth investor understands that if a company is solid enough to continue paying and raising the dividend, capital appreciation will follow.
Source: The Single Best Investment”
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