WOW. Acabo de descubrir a Chowder gracias a ustedes… OMG. Yo solo encuentro más libros y más gente que leer!!! 
Pero la verdad que no me cuesta, ya los ireé leyendo, pero todo lleva tiempo!
Con mucha de la info que me han ido recomendando en otros threads voy a hacer mi lista en estos días…
Estoy en una situación parecida a Proyecto de Chunkete. Buscando la IF en 20 años - nº 23 por inmodu y tengo la edad del hijo de Chowder ,así que a ver que sale! Sí tengo mas cantidades de dinero para invertir inicialmente y tengo que trabajar la psicología de que el precio no me limite… (por no estar “bajo”)…Como todos han sabiamente dicho, hay que decantarse por una estrategia y ejecutar pacientemente… re evaluar si es necesario a medida que va pasando el tiempo, tomar decisiones con cierto criterio para saber por qué fueron bien o mal en el futuro. Empezar da mucho miedo, pero da gusto tener tanta info y gente dispuesta a ayudar. Aunque debo reconocer que también se hace difícil contar con tantas opiniones… pero obliga a formar una propia que es lo importante. Saludos!
Tienes muchas opciones y al final elegiras la que mejor se adapte a ti y tus circunstancias. Esta es una de las funciones del foro.
¡Ánimo María!
Recuerda que se inicia el camino paso a paso y no con un gran salto. Extrapolando esto a la inversión, con pequeñas compras se va construyendo cartera.
Pero sí que te doy la razón en que se debería planear el camino con el tipo de empresas que uno quiere tener en su cartera así como el peso por sectores.
Interesante para ver la media de dividendo (RPD-yield) de los últimos 5 años.
"I’ve found a couple interesting free websites.
- locate the home page for “Dividend Channel (Dividend History | Dividend Channel)” enter a stock in the search box and click it. On the screen that appears under the topic “dividend history” scroll down to "Projection next dividend date and click on it. On that page go down to the “5 year dividend yield chart” and click on it. A graph appears showing the current dividend yield and the average dividend for the last 5 years.
- The website tickertech.com will provide info from individual company quarterly reports if you select a company and click on it.
Some of you may find these websites helpful."
Tambien se puede ver en Seeking Alpha
“There seems to be a view out there that people are better off indexing. Indexing does not outperform a quality dividend growth portfolio over the long term. It’s just that others don’t think we are smart enough or disciplined enough, or committed to doing it.
People throw around words like total return and some think dividend paying companies don’t have the growth to achieve a respectable total return. Don’t take their word for it, investigate. Go down your list of companies and see just how they have performed vs the index over a 20 year period.
Take D for example, most people would never think that utilities are market beaters. Hog wash!
Over the last 20 years:
D an annual rate of return of 8.71% if dividends are collected and spent or reinvested elsewhere. The annual rate of return with dividends reinvested are 10.14%.
The index, using SPY, an annual rate of return of just 4.81% dividends collected and 5.71% if dividends are reinvested. With dividends reinvested, D almost doubled the performance of the index.
I can go down the list of companies in this portfolio the blog is about and only a handful of companies under-performed the market. It’s just that most people aren’t patient or disciplined enough to play the long game.”
Hindsight is 20/20. Es fácil encontrar compañías que lo hayan hecho mejor que el índice en los últimos 20 años. Lo difícil es encontrar las que lo harán los 20 próximos.
Quiza eso fuese cierto cuando las mayores empresas del S&P500 eran DGI. Ahora que son las FAANG que no pagan dividendos la estrategia DGI no puede batir al indice.
“I used to use 4 sources and come up with an average fair value number and then the light went on. The true value of a company is in the future and I can’t read the future.
I came to the conclusion that valuations are only important to short term investors and traders. If people are playing the long game what difference does today’s value matter 20, 30 or 40 years from now? Then when we consider that a lot of people are only adding 4 or 5 shares at a time and that makes valuation even more irrelevant to me. This is why I came up with the “next man up” concept.
My son owns both LOW and HD but LOW is in his Roth and his Roth is already maxed out for the year, so I have to look at his taxable account for his monthly cash contributions.
Since the true value of a company is in the future, and we are playing the long game, I try to build positions to be as close to equal weight as possible in market value. That means I look at the smallest 3 or 4 positions and decide who gets added to next.
The next purchase will be mid June and that will be HD regardless of valuation, regardless of market conditions, regardless of whether the sun is shining or not.
I get the concept of wanting more shares for the money, more yield, etc, but that’s not how I invest. I consider myself a partner in the company and as a partner I want more ownership. I simply focus on equally weighting positions (since I don’t know who will perform and who won’t) and building share count. I’m not even focusing on yields in the young folk portfolios. My son’s taxable account only has a yield of 2.5% and the Roth is at 3.1%.
But again, the true value of a company is in the future and nobody can predict that. And, if one is going to continue to build their positions, as I am, then valuations are going to be higher in the future, therefore today’s garbage (overvalued) is tomorrow’s treasure (undervalued) because the company performed well.
It’s going to take time for people to break away from their valuation indoctrination but I escaped. … Ha!”
Totalmente de acuerdo. Con el retroscopio es fácil escoger una que tengas y haya ido bien para sacarla a la palestra.
De todas formas, tengo esperanza que muchas que haya ido bien 20 años pueden ir bien otros 20 más. Esto no implica que sean las claras ganadoras del siguiente ciclo, pero con cumplir, me vale.
Comprendo, las FAANG son empresas de gran crecimiento que en su mayoría no reparten dividendo.
El gran riesgo de estas empresas es que los beneficios de esfumen con grandes caídas (si llegan).
En tu opinión, ¿todavía hay justificación para una estrategia DGI o se debería cambiar la orientación de inversión?
Para mí uno de los problemas es que estos precios (en algunas tech) recogen expectativas de crecimiento ya muy altas.
El trail P/E de Amzn a 1.800 ni 2.000 que marca hoy SA es de 72.
Hay que estar muy seguro de Amazon a estos precios. Casi descuenta hacerse con el aws + medio comercio online mundial.
"If a young person is going to be upset over a 20% drawdown, get out of equities! It’s going to happen at some point. When the market crashes, everything crashes and value isn’t going to prevent you from seeing red.
Now you may feel good and pat yourself on the back over a 35% or 40% drop in price when the market has dropped 50%, but if one is going to run scared at a 20% drop in price, then don’t invest.
I am trying to get young people to forget prices, forget green or red on your positions. Be an adult! Simply keep investing in quality companies and the market will reward them eventually.
I used to be a stickler for buying companies at a discount and still saw them drop 20%, 30%, even 40% and more after buying them. Margin of safety? Against what?
People, forget share price movement. Focus on building dividend cash flows, they don’t correct in a bear market, they increase. You don’t stop investing in your 401K’s during a bear market, why stop investing due to valuations? You don’t place values on your funds, why not? The same companies you own are in most funds.
Dividend investing is not about how much our portfolios are up or down but how much did our dividend cash flows grow. "
"Look! Older folks have to look for minimum yields of maybe 3% or more because they got started late in life. They had a lot of ground to make up. You younger folks have an advantage. You can mix and match yield while still focusing on good companies.
Take a look at the companies in my son’s portfolio.
In his Roth: (yields)
ACN … 1.63
AWK … 1.72
BDX … 1.29
BF.B … 1.23
COST … 1.05
CTAS … 0.89
MKC … 1.46
SYK … 1.10
WM … 1.82
This account, due to balancing growth vs income has a total yield of 3.09.
In his Taxable account:
ABT … 1.63
ADP … 1.94
DG … 0.98
MA … 0.52
NKE … 1.06
NSC … 1.69
SBUX … 1.80
SWK … 1.96
V … 0.60
This account has a yield of 2.46.
Young people can afford to do this, they have time on their side. I simply focus on what I think are good companies and continually add to them as I go using the next man up concept. I’ll be adding to HD in a couple of weeks but yield has nothing to do with my decision. I’m adding because it’s HD’s turn to be added to, valuations be damned. I am building a portfolio I expect has to work for more than 40 years. I’m not going to stress out over something today when I’m looking at decades of investing.
People are their own worst enemies, they lack mental toughness when it comes to fear. In overcoming fear one needs to realize the brain is not always subject to logic but it always subject to action. Action it is and it’s why I force myself to make a purchase every time there is enough money in the account to do so."
Me gusta cada vez más la “filosofía Chowder” y lo digo no por el beat and raise del que habla desde hace un tiempo sino por el hecho de comprar grandes empresas a un precio justo ( lo que decía también W.B.) aunque Chowder a veces compra “caro” pero, y aquí es donde quiero llegar a parar, lo que hace no es otra cosa que DCA, es decir, lo que todo el mundo o la mayoría hacemos en estos foros con los fondos o con los planes de pensiones. Pegar un tiro al mes independientemente de cómo esté la participación de dicho fondo/PP. Pocos hacen una aportación a dichos fondos cuando está la participación a precio de derribo sino que mes a mes, llueva o haga sol, pum, el tiro sale, pues hacer lo mismo pero con acciones (dentro de unos límites,claro), comprar siempre, unas veces compraremos más barato y otras más caro. Con esto, al final el precio medio de una empresa no será tan malo como si compráramos en máximos ni tan bueno como si compráramos en el peor momento del mercado. Exactamente como el DCA de la inversión en fondos.
Quizás, para mejorar aún más la estrategia dejar parte de liquidez para grandes caídas y comprar a manos llenas. Aunque esto es más difícil de cumplir.
Digo esto al hilo de lo que se comenta en otros posts sobre si estamos al borde del precipicio o si estamos en subida libre, nadie lo sabe por lo que solo nos queda seguir invirtiendo en excelentes empresas que igual no están en mínimos de 52w pero tampoco están en las nubes. Al final solo compramos participaciones de una empresa, cuantas más participaciones mejor, obviamente.
Un saludo.
Ese es el principal problema para mi, comprar a manos llenas en las bajadas si, sin duda, mejor seria comprar si no en el punto mas bajo si alrededor de el.
Quien te dice que ese punto es, 1-3% arriba o abajo, el punto mas bajo. Igual que en las subidas, que nunca sabes donde esta el techo y que parece que todo el mundo compra por si se acaban las acciones, hacia abajo lo mismo, el mercado suele sobrerreaccionar y en el momento de panico parece que se acaba el mundo, que la bolsa se va al infierno.
Siempre he pensado que mas que precio de compra, lo que hay es zona de compra, un margen de precios adecuado y mas o menos seguro.
Para mi esto es tan incierto como el analisis tecnico, que acierta hasta que falla, y falla muchas veces.
Muchas veces Chowder hace referencia a T como una “cash cow company”. Qué otras “cash cow companies” conocéis??
El término “Cash cow” yo creo puede aplicarse a las empresas que se discuten en este foro para crear cartera DGI, siempre que tengamos en cuenta calidad y mejor si son aristócratas o tengan un historial decente en pago de dividendos (TEF no sirve).
Sin embargo, él lo aplica a empresas con alta RPD y bajo crecimiento. Básicamente empresas que te dan pasta para poder comprar o aumentar posición de otras empresas. Aparte de T (AT&T), está VZ (Verizon), O (Realty Income), WPC (W.P.Carey), D (Dominion Energy), RDS (Royal Dutch Shell) y cualquier otra que debido a caída de precio su RPD aumenta temporalmente (>4%): ABBV, MO, PM…
Buenos días,
navegando encontré esto, por si a alguien le interesa
un saludo
En efecto, se trata de un resumen de la “Filosofía Chowder” extraída de los comentarios que recopiló durante años una inversora que comentaba en Seeking Alpha (S.A.).
Se ha solicitado a los que dirigen S.A. que lo dejen abierto no pongan el usual “cierre” de acceso a las 72h salvo a quien está suscrito.
Se supone al final serán tres textos:
1.- Young Folks Portfolio.
2.- An Older Folks Portfolio.
3.- Food For Thought From Psychology Of The Market.
Desde hace un par de meses, Chowder cerró dos de los tres blogs que llevaba,
Ahora el único que queda es “Young Folk and New to Equity Investing Posrtfolio”.
"The cash has shown up in my son’s account and I just added to HD. A full position in this portfolio is $6K and HD is now at at $4.8K. I have two more companies that need to be added to in order to bring them in proximity of HD, those companies are GPC and SWK, so those are the considerations for next man up.
Once I bring these two companies up in value I will then switch gears where the rest of this year I will only add to companies showing 100% gains or better.
I am ignoring valuations, I am ignoring market conditions, I am staying focused on building shares in companies that are doing well for us. It’s a simple as that. It doesn’t take a genius to succeed in building an equity portfolio regardless of what others want to tell you. I think too many people are trying to be too smart and it isn’t necessary. I believe in keeping things simple
A word about valuations and HD. My son’s portfolio, due to investing small amounts on a regular basis and the fact that everything in his taxable account is in the green, anytime I add to a position like HD I’m averaging up on his cost basis.
As to valuation, the share price would have had to drop about $35 just to pick up one more share. I don’t see that happening soon and if I waited for a $10 drop in price, I would still only be able to purchase the same number of shares, so I ignore valuations.
Morningstar says fair value is $170, Valuentum says $175, but in either case they both consider HD overvalued at its current price of $206. In my case, the cost basis rose to $157 after yesterday’s purchase, so as you can see, I am still showing an undervalued position in spite of ignoring the current valuations. I can simply focus on building the position."
[…]
"If waiting works it feels great, but when it doesn’t there is a company I wanted to build up in size that didn’t get built unless I ended up having to pay even higher prices for less shares for the cost of waiting and not getting it. I won’t allow that to happen.
I will often invest in $4K and $5K lots for middle aged investors, but if share prices keep rising, and the company is still performing well, then I will invest in smaller amounts of $1K or $2K at a time. I will not miss out on building dividend cash flows now. My attitude is … what can I do today to build cash flows, money that will be used for further investment. The more dividend cash flows I have, the more cash I have to invest in the event prices do eventually fall, but for me, it’s all about building positions of size. … I will never get caught having one of my best performers being one of my smallest positions and me ending up saying, I wish I owned more."