Este le mete a NIO mañana mismo.
No lo dice, pero se le nota. No quiere pagar tantos impuestos. 
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Por su perfil, será empresa USA.
No compra extranjeras.
Veremos qué compra en 2021.
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Esta te va a encantar:
“I have set aside a legacy portion of my portfolio where I personally own the following:
ARKK … ARKW … ARKG … ARKF … SQ … TSLA … Z … ROKU … SE … TDOC … TWLO … CRWD … SNOW … CRM.
Again, they are in my personal portfolio. I told people in advance, when they were shocked at my CEF exposure, that I would be taking those distributions to invest elsewhere. I went for growth and have lowered my exposure level to CEF’s. I have more income than I need.”
“As to the older folks, I have ARKK, ARKW, ARKG, ARKF and ARKQ in various older folk portfolios including a 79 year old but in every case a margin of income safety has been built in where they don’t have to worry about dividends not being there for living expenses. It’s the whole purpose of building a margin of income safety.
I do not have any of these ETF’s or companies in the young folk portfolio, I will look into that in 2021. I still have to finish up with my 2020 goals in that portfolio which include buying NOC on Monday and AAPL next month.
Based on how far ahead of schedule the young folk portfolio is year end in relation to the long term goal will determine if or how much to consider some of these assets for that portfolio.”
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“I have always said the focus was on meeting the income goal.
How much do you need? … When do you need it?
That goal was achieved and when it was, it was time to establish a new goal. The new goal was to build a margin of income safety. I got some push back when I mentioned that one portfolio had a 100% margin of safety. I was asked why do you need so much more income than is needed. … Simple, no new cash is going into the portfolio so the portfolio needs to generate more cash than is needed for investment if I wish to continue growing the portfolio.
Once that objective was achieved, I then established a new one. I decided to set aside a legacy portion of my portfolio that focused on high growth potential companies.
When AMZN went from $50 to $100 people thought it was too late to invest. When it went from $100 to $200 people thought it was insane to invest. Look at it now.
I have studied many investment styles and growth stocks are different. You can’t value them the way you do normal companies because they are tied to the index or some benchmark. You have to eliminate share price to where you totally ignore it. Price doesn’t exist!
You have to look at secular trends and think of where the market will be in 10-20 years and then look for the companies that support that objective. the UK just announced that no combustion engine automobiles can be sold in 10 years. What does that tell you about a company like TSLA?
The last century focused on the creation of electricity, automobiles and the telephone. This century the focus, the innovation, is going to come from blockchain technology, genome sequencing, artificial intelligence and robotics. That’s where the growth is going to be and that means these companies are in the early stages of that growth.
What I learned from the dot com bust was that I and others were chasing the dream, that was a mistake, you have to wait until the dream starts creating growing revenues and revenues is what I focus on where a dividend investor has to focus on cash flows. It’s simply a matter of getting your mind right, a different hat for a different style of investing. This isn’t new to me. It’s been on the back burner.”
“I’m not going to recommend any of the choices I made unless one has met their income goal with a margin of safety.
I got crushed in the tech bust because I didn’t understand how to manage those positions. Anything that had dot com in the name was buy as we chased the dream, and then as the share price dropped, I kept averaging down. Big mistake.
The way I am approaching it now is that I start small, a 1/4 sized position or even 1/5 sized position to start and I only add to those who are up double digits and avoid adding to those in the red. I will minimize losses this time as opposed to compounding them last time.
Where I chased the dream before, I now focus on revenue growth. All one has to do is look at IBM to see an example of a tech company with no growth. It has had negative revenue growth over the past 5 years.
3 year revenue growth:
IBM … <1.44%>
AAPL … 6.1%
MSFT … 24.34%
I believe that both AAPL and MSFT will do well going forward, at least beating the S&P 500 Index, but their high growth years are behind them.
SE … 111.69%
TWLO … 61.65%
SQ … 55.12%
ROKU … 48.23%
I could be wrong but this indicates to me their best growth years are ahead as long as the company continues to execute, and that’s where managing the position comes into play.”
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Podré cobrar por derechos de autor?
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Pues el camino que le queda a Chowder es invertir a partir de ahora en fondos, como @ifrobertocarlos 
para optimizar impuestos
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I have the following high growth companies in my personal portfolio.
ETF’s:
ARKK … ARKW … ARKF … ARKG
Equities:
CRM … CRWD … ROKU … SE … SNOW … SQ … TDOC … TSLA … TWLO … Z
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Nunca me hubiera imaginado a Chowder invirtiendo en ese tipo de empresas…
¿Nos acercamos por fin al estallido de la burbuja tecnológica?
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Pues suma y sigue…
I purchased new positions in: NIO and SBE.
SBE was also purchased in my personal portfolio.I was sticking with the electric vehicle theme since I believe this is where we will see exponential type growth going forward, even more so than we have already seen this year. In the case of TSLA, I easily think it will a double in 5 years time and double again over the next 5 years.
NIO, a China based company, is the closest competitor to TSLA, but I am of the belief that NIO will dominate the Asian market while TSLA will get most of its growth in North America and Europe. They will try Asia but I believe the Chinese government insures NIO is successful.Since electric vehicles need to be charged in order to be useful,
SBE is the battery charging play here. SBE is a shell corporation, it raises money to make acquisitions of energy producing companies.SBE has announced it is merging with a private company called Charge Point. Once the merger is complete, expected year end, the new company will change its name and will be taken public.
By purchasing SBE now, it insures that I own the company before the IPO comes out, something I look forward to.Charge Point has more than 70% of the battery charging market, this isn’t some rinky-dink company. Information can be found here:www.chargepoint.com/…
All of these companies are considered speculative in my opinion due to the high valuations, but when one is looking to lock in that high growth, one must pay a premium to do so. None the less, I don’t want to go crazy, I purchased in small lots depending on the portfolio that the purchase was made in. For the young folks, $300 - $500 lots were purchased. For the older folks $1,000 - $2,000 lots and I will add to these positions once they show some progress.
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Parece que SBE y Chargepoint van en serio con la fusion.
Por si acaso y aprovechando que hoy han caido un 6% en picotedo un poco.
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Tiene un nuevo blog solo para tratar este tipo de empresas
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728729-chowder/5525207-disruptive-innovation-high-growth
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Muy recomendable. ¡Lo podía haber llamado GrowthHunt!
Aprendiendo.
SBE es una SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) cuyo objetivo es obtener capital para fusionarse con una empresa que no cotiza. Se trata de un tipo de fusión inversa. Lo importante y de ahí el comentario Chowder es el peaje a pagar por entrar en la sociedad cotizada (evidentemente contra más barato compres mejor) ya que est solo obtendrá un % de la empresa adquirida (en este caso el 20% de ChargePoint).
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Si es una nueva moda, es una forma que tienen las empresas de salir al mercado, ser compradas por una SPAC.
Una empresa que sale a bolsa con el objetivo a futuro de comprar una o varias compañias interesadas en salir a bolsa.
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Pues nada, Otro blog a seguir…
Le ha dado fuerte para abrir un blog sólo de esto.
Aprovecharemos para ver cómo gestiona este tipo de inversiones y dónde más se mete.
“Investing in value companies is considerably different than investing in high growth companies. The problem is with valuations. There are two basic ways of looking at valuations; Value investors rely on benchmark analysis which requires delving into hind sight performance. High growth investing relies on research based analysis, there is very little hind sight results to look at.
Value investing is about owning well established companies whose high growth years are behind them. The opportunities for high growth no longer exist so the company generally pays out some of their profits in dividends. Part of the value investing method is that almost everything is based on where it stands in relation to the performance of the S&P 500.
High growth investing involves mostly looking for secular trends and understanding the companies that have the potential to become the next GOOGL or AMZN. It totally ignores price action and focuses on the research.
When a company is in its early growth years, it doesn’t matter if the price has moved up 100% or 200% in a short period of time (unless you are looking to trade) because 100% of nothing is still nothing.
TSLA is up 587% year to date yet it has only recently turned profitable. Now it can start to truly grow and earn money. Now that it is profitable and has a great story behind it, you aren’t going to get a low price. Growth expectations exceed 15% per year and you have to pay a premium for that type of growth.
People miss out on the better companies to invest in because they pay too much attention to price and not enough attention to the research.
To do both value investing and high growth investing requires one get their mind right and implement the proper strategy in looking for opportunities.
Benchmark based research had me adding to LMT this week. Research based tactics had me adding to TSLA. The research suggests TSLA will provide better returns over the next 5 years than LMT due to the expectations of one being a high growth company and the other a solid well established company.”
Y más de TSLA.
“One of the easiest … “git some” … opportunities I have ever come across is when the S&P announces that a company will be entering the S&P 500 Index. The reason this is huge is because when the company is actually inserted, all of the index funds have to own it.
On November 16 the announcement came that it would be included prior to the December 21 open. It is at that time when the Index funds must start buying, it’s why TSLA was up 13% on the day of the announcement. I increased my position following that news.
Since the announcement just a week ago, TSLA is up 27% and it’s going to go higher.
According to Goldman Sachs, of the 189 large cap funds, 178 of them do not own TSLA at this time, and when they are included into the S&P 500 December 21, they must have their weightings in place by then. There’s no telling how much they will buy initially, they may fill out their positions right away or they may ease into them or keep them small, but regardless of their strategy, they must buy it, so I expect prices to go even higher.
Tonight on Mad Money Cramer did a segment on the “return to normalcy companies”, the companies expected to do well post Covid, and TSLA was on the list. As he explained why each company is expected to do well, when he came to TSLA he said, I don’t know why we’re talking about this one, it’s going up, everyone knows that. … Ha!
For those who have a place for a company like this, and are willing to add a little risk to your profile, check it out and decide for yourself. I’m just explaining what I did and why, and to share the concept of when a company gets added to the S&P 500 Index … git some … and do it right away, that’s where the easy money is at.”
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100%
Young Folk Portfolio.
"As 2020 winds down, and I establish new objectives for 2021, an evaluation of this portfolio is in order. I need to determine if the portfolio is ahead of schedule in achieving the long term goals and then adjust accordingly.
This portfolio has been in effect now for 11 years, and at the time of its creation I established 2 long term goals I wanted to achieve at the end of 40 years. The owner of this portfolio was 24 at the time and 40 years will put it at age 64.
The goals were:
- A portfolio of value of $3 million, hence the portfolio’s name is Project $3 million.
- An annual income stream of $120K.
Knowing these objectives in advance, I was able to work backward and determine where this portfolio needed to be at the end of every year for 40 years.
At the end of 2020 this portfolio needed a portfolio value of $211,205. Current portfolio value is just shy of $300,00, so the portfolio is ahead of schedule in that area.
At the end of 2020, this portfolio needed to generate $2,835 in annual dividends. It looks like it will achieve $6,000 in dividends, thus this is well ahead of schedule as well.
I could leave well alone as it is doing its job, but I want to eliminate a couple of weaknesses. I prefer to look at a 5 year time frame from the time of purchase to see how a company will do. Unless the company has a very high yield, I prefer the company at least keep pace with the market. I have a couple who haven’t.
HRL has been held for 4 years and has a CAGR of 5.53% to the S&P 500 which is 12.72%. I could wait one more year but after a horrible earnings report, I don’t see HRL making up ground to catch the S&P 500 numbers, so out it goes as of tomorrow.
WELL has been in this portfolio for 8 years and the CAGR is only 6.22% to the S&P 500 at 12.19% for the same time frame. I had kept WELL in spite of its under-performance because of its high yield, but now that it has cut the dividend, it no longer meets my “exception guidelines”. I will sell WELL tomorrow as well (pun intended).
In its place I am going for growth since the dividend cash flows are so far ahead of schedule. I will be adding the following positions in the next day or two to replace HRL and WELL.
ARKK an Innovation ETF. … ARKW a next generation ETF.
In addition to this, I want to take advantage of the electric vehicle secular trend as this market is going to be huge some 5-10 years from now. With climate change and zero carbon emissions the goals of many countries, electric vehicles will fill that need. I will be adding:
TSLA and NIO.
I am not abandoning dividend growth companies as I did buy a new position in NOC on Monday. I will continue to add to dividend paying companies in 2021 but I will be adding some more growth type companies in for balance."
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Estoy de acuerdo con Chowder con respecto a HRL, los datos son malos y la reacción del mercado ha sido muy tibia, probablemente porque casi todo va hacia arriba.
Muy interesante la manera de hacer los objetivos y partirlos hasta tener acciones concretas que hacer.