Estoy de acuerdo con Chowder con respecto a HRL, los datos son malos y la reacción del mercado ha sido muy tibia, probablemente porque casi todo va hacia arriba.
Muy interesante la manera de hacer los objetivos y partirlos hasta tener acciones concretas que hacer.
(Disruptive Innovation - High Growth)
On Monday I plan on making quite a few purchases in the various portfolios I manage for others. I will be buying or adding to the following companies:
NIO … SBE … SE … ROKU … TWLO … PSTG … FLIR … GBTC … PACB … HUYA … KTOS … SUNW.
The one that intrigues me the most, from a product line point of view is KTOS. I have LMT and NOC in my personal dividend growth portfolio and KTOS meets what I like to see for military defense. They make drones.
I saw a video online where China has developed a drone for passenger use. They hop in and someone off who knows where flies the drone for them with their video game looking controls and console. How cool is That?
Make a two seat drone and it would make a great first impression on a date, I would think! … Ha!
¿Le habrán hackeado la cuenta? 
ya solo le falta entrar en Palantir 
“Young Folk People Blog”
“this portfolio has now grown to 61 positions and I have no intention of keeping that many. Of the 61 positions 13 of them are up over 100% in total return and 3 others are up over 90%. Those will be keepers.
As we go forward into 2021, don’t be surprised if you see me start to sell off companies who simply haven’t met expectations. I did just that with HRL, GPC and WELL.
HRL and WELL were sold in the Roth and the proceeds from that sale went into TSLA, ARKK and ARKW.
GPC was sold in the taxable account and most of those proceeds were used to add to LMT, TGT, ADP and DG, all positions that were already up more than 100% in total return.
In 2021 I want to add to all 13 positions up 100% or more, the 3 positions up 90% or more and I want to add to the newly purchased high growth companies, and to accomplish all of this, I will need to get rid of some of the dead weight while lowering the number of positions I own. I believe in building on strength, not adding more to my losers.
That means I may have to sell long time held KMI, CVX and UL at some point, these are some of my worst performers although not all in the red. I hate to do it, but a man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do. They had their chance.
Balancing the lost income, something I am willing to sacrifice now, will be a challenge, but that’s the advantage of having a 100% safety margin of dividend cash flows. I’m several years ahead of schedule, so now would be the time to make those adjustments. Now being some time in 2021.”.
[…]
“If this portfolio, or any portfolio were not on schedule, or haven’t achieved their goals, I wouldn’t touch KMI or CVX. I wouldn’t even think of it never mind do it. I still don’t know if I will do it. It all depends on whether my high growth/high risk holdings generate the returns I’m expecting from them. If they do, I will sell KMI or CVX to add to those positions. If my new high growth/high risk companies don’t show me double digit returns sometime in 2021, I won’t add to them until they do.”
Young Folk Portfolio.
30 NOV.
“Quite a few adjustments today. I sold XOM for what I think was a 50% loss. Yeah, I know, should’a sold it earlier. Save me the grief, I don’t need to hear it.
I took out some new positions today in the Roth, all small positions, around $400 each give or take a few dollars. I wanted to spread it around because I’m going for growth with this $2,400 and these are high risk companies.
I purchased or added to the following:
SE … ROKU … TWLO … PSTH are new positions. … NIO … SBE are add on’s.”
5 DIC
“I am going to be making some moves in the taxable account portion of this portfolio come Monday morning.
I am looking at the strengths and weaknesses of companies held more than 5 years. I wish to weed out the weaklings and build up the winners.
UL is up for sale. … It currently has a position size of $5K and generates $117 and change in annual dividends.
I am looking to grow the dividend cash flow, to not only offset that of UL, but to help buttress the dividend loss due to the D dividend cut.
I am going to put $4K into PTY and that will bring PTY up to a position size of $6K where I hope to keep it there for some time. This is the only CEF this portfolio owns. It has a yield of 8.76% and I can use those monthly distributions to help other companies grow.
The remaining $1K will be split between ADP and MCD.
One of my objectives in 2021 is to add to the companies that have performed the best for me and are up at least 100% or more in total return. I wish to add in small lots so as to not disrupt the position too much by raising the cost basis too quickly.
So here’s the deal. I’ll be losing $117 per year in dividends from the sale of UL and I lost $85 per year in the loss from D as a result of the dividend cut totaling $202.
I will gain $347 per year in distributions from PTY alone, thus overcoming any loss from D and the replacement of UL. … PLUS, I will be adding shares to ADP and MCD.
Some may question the idea of “manufacturing” dividend growth and I will say … well yeah, what’s the purpose of setting goals if you aren’t willing to do what it takes to achieve them. I’m brutal that way! … Ha!
None of these moves are suggestions for others to follow. These moves are goal-based for the specific goals of this portfolio alone, so please keep that in mind.”
Ya sólo le queda por sacar CVX y KMI.
una pregunta para los que seguíis los comentarios de Chowder de hace tiempo.
yo lo que noto es que antes era más uniforme en el tipo de empresas que buscaba habiendo un criterio general más o menos uniforme; pero de un tiempo para acá (no sé si será por el COVID) que es como que se ha liado la manta a la cabeza y es como que ha metido empresas de mayor incertidumbre en cartera y está dejando un poco en segundo plano sus orígenes.
Lo mismo es que yo estoy algo perdido y no le pillo la onda que lleva, por eso la pregunta
gracias de antemano
bueno, lo de la venta de XOM, me parece un paso no muy descabellado, el número de chowder de XOM es 14, pero su deuda es de traca
No esta dejando los orígenes en segundo plano pero lo comentó el otro día, ¿que análisis tienes que hacer ahora mismo de KO, V, MA o acciones DGI de este tipo?, casi ninguno.
Sigue con el DGI pero ya tiene completo su “income stream” así que se permite entrar con un 0,5% o 1% del portfolio en empresas “disruptivas”, me parece que TSLA ya la va a tomar como una posición de verdad en su cartera pero no estoy seguro. Al portfolio de su hija si que le esta metiendo caña con este tipo de empresas.
Él ya ha dado sus explicaciones, considera está muy adelantado en dividendos respecto a la planificación de la cartera de su hijo (el mamón), y por eso se permite “jugar” a este tipo de empresas. En cualquier caso, sobre una cartera de 300k, creo que no llega a 10k.
Eso sí, le ha dado fuerte con TSLA, pero que muy fuerte. Está en todos los blogs de S.A donde se comenta, dando caña.
La segunda parte, y como dijo @investing-saints: “Se ha pasado la máquina de los dividendos” y ahora va a por la del High-Growth. Se aburre y ha creado una cartera que será legado para sus hijos. Ha decidido que ya que ellos tienen inversiones y van a heredar la suya, ahora construye una a futuro de empresas de crecimiento.
Lo que lía y nos ha dejado desconcertados, es este cambio y que ahora se dedique a escribir más sobre las otras que las clásicas. Está “on-fire”. Pero en la cartera de gente mayor “older folk portfolio”, no ha cambiado nada: KO, ABBV, CEFs, etc.
Ahora habrá que filtrar qué comentarios suyos leer, en función de tu propio objetivo y estilo de inversión.
Además es interesante leer como va construyendo la posición en estas empresas high-growth. Nada de echar toda la carne en el asador desde el primer momento. Si no me equivoco empieza con 1K o 2K como mucho y cuando observa plusvalías latentes de doble dígito en alguna de ellas invierte más. Riesgo, sí… pero no tanto.
"That’s why I go in small to begin with, so that I can add more if I wish but keep losses at a minimum."
@luisg corrígeme si me estoy columpiando.
Además es un negacionista de que estemos ante una nueva “tech bubble”
I keep hearing and reading comments about how the current tech valuations remind people of the tech crash of 2000-2001. I can tell you they haven’t researched it. They have based their conclusions on emotions or simply listening to people who haven’t done the proper research.
The current tech valuations compared to the tech crash, and although valuations are currently rising, they are some 70%-80% BELOW 2000-2001 valuations.
Valuations back then were were 50x forward earnings, today 28x forward earnings.
Tech profit margins today are above 20%, back then below 10%.
Central bank interest rates back then, 6% and rising. Interest rates today 0.0% and expected to remain steady for the foreseeable future.
Back then the companies being bid up by investors, like pets.com, etc. had no chance of changing the world. Today the companies being bid up like SHOP … SQ … ROKU … TSLA, etc are already taking over the world - and this is important, they have billions of dollars to prove it.
So no, this is not a tech bubble, this is what innovation and disruptive technologies is supposed to look like. This doesn’t mean we won’t see some violent price swings, but the long term trend is intact and still in the early innings.
I could be wrong though, so there is that, but do your own research and decide for yourself.
Muchas gracias por las respuestas!!!
I was fully invested in the dot com companies prior to the crash and I got my butt kicked bad enough that I almost gave up on investing
Buyandhold 2012: “Tesla is now $609. I view it as a buy at $400 or lower and a hold above $400”
¿En que mundo vivimos que ya no te puedes fiar ni de buyandhold 2012? Espero que su madre le meta en vereda
La moneda sólo tiene dos caras:
1.- Se han vuelto locos todos.
2.- Con toda su experiencia (que incluye culo pateado en el 2000) tienen claro que esta vez hay empresas que merecen la pena.
En cualquier caso, no han hecho cambio radical de cartera de unos valores por otros.
Están “metiendo la patita” a ver qué pasa.
“What a week.
Disney up 14.00%
MongoDB up 22.47%
Palantir up 14.05%
Alexion up 45.00%.
And Abbott Labs raised its dividend by 25%. (Buyandhold2012)”
