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Como la mayoría de compañías, parón en el incremento de dividendos.
Se estarán curando en salud ante lo que esperan que venga si es que viene algo.
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Se han endeudado un monton para comprar Canopy apostando a la marihuana en bebidas. Veremos si han asignado bien el capital. Ahora toca desapalancarse a costa de frenar el crecimiento del dividendo.
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Constellation Brands Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Results (3/10/2019)
- Generates reported basis EPS of $(2.77) and comparable basis EPS of $2.72, including Canopy Growth equity losses of $0.20. Excluding Canopy Growth equity losses, achieved comparable basis EPS of $2.91
- Generates $1.4 billion of operating cash flow and $1.1 billion of free cash flow, an increase of 6% and 10%, respectively
- Repurchases approximately 266,000 shares of common stock for $50 million
- Signs agreement with Heaven Hill Brands to divest Black Velvet Canadian Whisky for $266 million
- Wine and Spirits Transaction now expected to close by yearend fiscal 2020
- Updates fiscal 2020 reported basis EPS outlook to $0.55 - $0.75. Increases comparable basis EPS outlook to $9.00 - $9.20; for guidance purposes assumes close of the Wine and Spirits Transaction at the end of third quarter fiscal 2020 and close of the Black Velvet Transaction at the beginning of
November 2019 - Increases fiscal 2020 operating cash flow target to approximately $2.2 billion and free cash flow projection to $1.3 - $1.4 billion
Outlook
The table below sets forth management’s current EPS expectations for fiscal 2020 compared to fiscal 2019 actual results, both on a reported basis, a comparable basis, and a comparable basis excluding Canopy equity losses and related activities.
- Beer: net sales and operating income growth 7 - 9%
- Wine and Spirits: net sales decline 15 - 20% and operating income decline of approximately 25%
- Interest expense: $430 - $440 million
- Tax rate: reported 95% to 97%, reflecting fiscal 2020 year to date Canopy fair value tax benefit, comparable excluding Canopy equity earnings impact approximately 17%
- Weighted average diluted shares outstanding: approximately 195 million; assumes no additional share repurchases for fiscal 2020
- Operating cash flow: $2.1 - $2.3 billion
- Capital expenditures: $800 - $900 million, including approximately $600 million targeted for Mexico beer operations expansion activities
- Free cash flow: $1.3 - $1.4 billion
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Third Quarter 2020 Results (8/1/2020):
- Generates reported basis EPS of $1.85 and comparable basis EPS of $2.14, including Canopy Growth equity losses of $0.25; excluding Canopy Growth equity losses, achieved comparable basis EPS of $2.39
• Generates $2.1 billion of operating cash flow and $1.5 billion of free cash flow, an increase of 5% and 14%, respectively
• Increases fiscal 2020 reported basis EPS outlook to $0.95 - $1.05; increases comparable basis EPS outlook to $9.45 - $9.55
• Increases fiscal 2020 operating cash flow target to approximately $2.3 billion and free cash flow projection to $1.5 - $1.6 billion
• Agrees to revise original Wine & Spirits agreement with Gallo in connection with Federal Trade Commission review; expected to close by the end of fiscal 2020
• In a separate, but related, transaction, agrees to divest Nobilo Wine brand to Gallo for $130 million; expected to close in first half fiscal 2021
• Signs agreement with Kings & Convicts Brewing to divest the Ballast Point brand and certain related facilities; expected to close by the end of fiscal 2020
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Morningstar eleva el moat de STZ a Wide, su fair value a 230$ y la considera barata.
After reassessing recent structural changes to Constellation Brands’ business, as well as the positioning of its largest brands, we believe it boasts a competitive position that belongs in the most august tier of our consumer-packaged goods coverage. Consequently, we’ve raised our moat rating to wide from narrow. Our fair value estimate increases to $230 from $212, driven by the valuation implications of our moat upgrade as well as a reduction in our systemic risk rating to align with our global beverage coverage. The stock has been beleaguered by uncertainty regarding the future of its wine/spirits business and noise surrounding no-moat cannabis supplier Canopy Growth, its largest venture investment. Still, from our vantage point, these developments have provided an opportunity for prospective investors to own a high-quality asset on the cheap, and we think Constellation’s shares represent compelling value.
“Constellation’s moat is primarily predicated on the intangible assets–and to a lesser degree cost advantage–emanating from its Mexican beer portfolio (80% of profits). These ultimately manifest in brewing margins that are unparalleled across North America (and, for the most part, globally) as well as other poignant indicators of brand prowess, such as a sustainably lower level of advertising spending. We view its intangibles story as multipronged and one of the more compelling across our broader coverage, as in addition to the brand notoriety and supply chain entrenchment that typically undergird consumer-packaged-goods moats, we see a clear nexus between the success of the firm’s largest trademarks (Modelo and Corona) and the U.S. Hispanic population.”
He recordado que Tim McAleenan Jr. publicó un artículo sobre ella en Septiembre del año pasado donde incidía en el tema de la elevada deuda (algo que también comentó en su día Vash). Junto a BF.B la colocaba en el altar de las empresas dentro del sector “large-cap alcohol and spirits” todavía capaz de hacer crecer su beneficios a doble dígito. A diferencia de M* no la considera barata y estima que en el rango de los 135$ sería una auténtica ganga
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Está ahora en los 200$. 135$ viene a ser el 66%.
Casi cualquier empresa con más de un 30% de descuento es una ganga.
Yo confío en que los vicios no me defrauden.
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En la anterior crisis cayó casi un 50% en el periodo de un año (abril 2008-2009). Nada es imposible 
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Me preocupa la calidad del management.
El acuerdo para comprar los derechos de importacion de las marcas mejicanas del Grupo Modelo les llovio del cielo porque ya tenian el 50% de la joint venture y practicamente eran los unicos candidatos que tenia AB InBev para venderles los derechos obligado por los reguladores. Y eso es el motivo por el que les ha ido tan bien estos años. Un acuerdo en el que le vendedor estaba obligado a vender y ellos eran practicamente el unico comprador.
El resto de decisiones de asignacion de capital han sido lamentables. Endeudarse para comprar Canopy y practicamente congelar el dividendo. Comprar Ballast Point por 1 billon y venderla cuatro años despues por mucho menos. Dudosas inversiones en la parte de vinos.
Me extraña que el stewardship no sea Poor en M*.
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Ya la tenemos a 178$. Un par de meneos más por gentileza del Coronavirus y se nos pone en el “punto dulce”.
Un mes más tarde ya la tenemos a 125$. Hay que tener cuidado con lo que se desea porque se puede cumplir
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Yo deseaba poder teletrabajar y la que he liado 
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Maldiciones chinas:
“Ojala se cumplan tus deseos”
“Ojala vivas tiempos interesantes”
Parece que con la famosa sopa de murcielago lo han logrado …
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STZ has 1 vote per share and receives a dividend 10% greater than the dividend on STZ.B.
STZ.B has 10 votes per share and is largely owned by members of a family which has dominant voting power among shareholders
Pito, pito, gorgorito??? 
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Algo similar ocurre con las BMW, sino recuerdo mal. Y, si de nuevo no recuerdo mal, creo haber leído a @alvaromusach argumentar los beneficios de comprar aquellas con derecho a voto porque serían las que subirían de cotización en caso de OPA/Merger.
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Pim pom fuera
Has decidido algo? 
Las Clase A. La cabra siempre tira al dividendo
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La cerveza no es un bien de primera necesidad … en México!!!
Que beban cigarrillos !!