El análisis de META en tres entregas (Nov 04-10-15) es de los que te hace caer la mandíbula al suelo. Cada entrega acompañada por su correspondiente vídeo de 40 minutos de duración
Facebook 2022 Earnings Report Posts
- Facebook (Meta) Lesson 1: Corporate Governance
- Facebook (Meta) Lesson 2: Accounting inconsistencies and consequences
- Facebook (Meta) Lesson 3: Tell me a story!
—LESSON 1—
As investors, should you avoid investing in tech companies with dual-voting right shares? If I said yes, I would be violating one of my own precepts, which is that I will buy any company, no matter what its faults, at the right price. You should avoid investing in these companies when they are priced on the presumption that their founder-managers can do no wrong, but as fear overcomes greed in markets, investors in these companies will start pricing in the worst-case scenarios, where founders continue with dysfunctional behavior in perpetuity, and at those prices, you may be getting bargains. That is what I see happening, in 2022, at Facebook, in particular, and large tech companies, in general. It is the reason that having lost money on Facebook, since buying it in April, I will continue to hold it and I did add to my holdings, when the stock hit $100/share. I know that my Facebook investment will ride and fall with Mark Zuckerberg’s ego, and while I have no delusions about being able to influence him, I think that at today’s prices, the odds are in my favor. Time will tell!
—LESSON 2—
In sum, though, capitalizing R&D and the Metaverse investments is a good idea, whether you are an optimist or pessimist about the company. If you are bullish on Facebook, you will have convince others and, more importantly, yourself, that you expect Facebook (and Zuckerberg) to deliver a payoff on the Metaverse investment that justifies its scale. If you are in the pessimist group, it is important that your reasoning for why Facebook is a poor investment, at a PE ratio of 6, is not based upon the false premise that its prime operating business (online advertising) has becoming less profitable (it has not) but upon a judgment that you have made that Zuckerberg’s ego has overridden his business sense, and that without the safety rails of corporate governance, he will continue to throw good money into a bad idea for the foreseeable future.
—LESSON 3—
As I mentioned in my first post on Facebook a couple of weeks ago, I made an exception to my rule of not doubling down and doubled my holding of Facebook on November 4, 2022, because its valuation looks compelling. I did so with the acceptance that I will have little influence over the management of the company, in general, and Mark Zuckerberg, in particular, and it is entirely possible that I will come to regret it. If I do so, I am sure that many of you will remind me, and I okay with that as well!
