Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Abro hilo con los resultados de ExxonMobil de 2016, que vio reducidos sus beneficios a la mitad por el ajuste en los precios del petróleo:

https://es.investing.com/news/commodities-news/bajan-un-51--las-ganancias-en-2016-de-la-petrolera-exxonmobil-375430

La interpretación de OCU es bastante halagüeña:

"Exxon Mobil ha publicado un resultado trimestral que cae un 40% respecto al de un año antes, debido principalmente a una depreciación del valor de sus actividades. Sin tenerla en cuenta, el beneficio superaría al de hace un año y mejoraría el dato del trimestre anterior. Además, Exxon ha recortado aún más sus costes. "

El director ejecutivo de Exxon Mobil anunció que invertirán 20.000 millones de dólares en la costa del Golfo de Estados Unidos en los próximos 10 años:

https://www.eldiario.es/economia/Exxon-invertira-millones-Golfo-EEUU_0_619788060.html

Está en mínimos de 52 semanas y me planteo comprar un primer paquete.

¿Qué opináis?

Exxon Mobil compra un 25% en un yacimiento de gas natural cerca de Mozambique por 2.800 millones de dólares

https://www.efeempresas.com/noticia/exxon-compra-un-25-en-un-yacimiento-de-gas-natural-por-28-millones-de-dolares/

Incremento del dividendo del 2,67%.

Nueva RPD: 3.77%.

https://mydividendpipeline.blogspot.com/2017/04/xom-raises-dividend-267-new-yield-is-377.html

Según Google Finance, Exxon tiene un payout aproximado del 125%, es decir los gastos en dividendos son superiores a sus ingresos

Exxon Mobil generated cash flow from operations of $8.2 billion for the quarter, nearly double from $4.8 billion in the first quarter of 2016. This easily covered its $3.1 billion in shareholder distributions for the quarter.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/these-3-big-oil-dividend-stocks-just-pumped-out-big-earnings-beats?post=133316

Tienes razón. Los datos de Google Finance se refieren a 2016. Desconocía estos resultados recién publicados.Vemos han mejorado notablemente fruto del aumento del precio del crudo respecto al mismo periodo del año pasado y de la reducción de costes. Si confiamos en este sector, puede que sea la mejor compañía donde inverrtir

yo llevo Chevron desde 2015-2016.

Lo raro es la evolucion inversa que esta llevando el precio de chevron y exxon.

exxon lo paso Mejor en la crisis crudo… pero esta underperforming ahora respecto a cvx…

IRVING, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The Board of Directors of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) today declared a cash dividend of $0.87 cents per share on the Common Stock, payable on June 10, 2019 to shareholders of record of Common Stock at the close of business on May 13, 2019.

This second quarter dividend compares with $0.82 cents per share paid in the first quarter of 2019.

Through its dividends, the corporation has shared its success with its shareholders for more than 100 years and has increased its annual dividend payment to shareholders for 37 consecutive years.

Entro en XOM con 40 acciones a 79,70.
Mas o menos un cuarto de la posicion que quiero tener
Con un rpd de casi el 4,50% y como el petroleo esta infraponderado en mi cartera,estaba esperando para aumentar sector e iniciar en XOM.
Ahora a seguir aumentando si las condiciones son las idoneas.

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Tengo una anotación en Degiro de un dividendo de Exxon y acto seguido otra anotación retirando el mismo importe del dividendo… sabéis si ha dado dividendo? Gracias

El próximo dividendo es el 10 de Junio (0.87$). Ex-dividend date: 10 de Mayo

Degiro hace preapuntes del dividendo. Un listado agradable de ver cuando se acumulan varios.
Salta el exdividend day normalmente.

Sí eso lo sé, pero las anotaciones en cuenta las hace cuando hace efectivo el dividendo, lo que me sorprende es que tengo la anotación y luego la misma en negativo, y no sé si Exxon, ha dado o no el dividendo para poder reclamarles en caso de que sea un error

Hola Inmodu.

Yo utilizo Degiro y tengo Exxon en mi cuenta Degiro, a mi no me aparece ningún movimiento raro de Exxon, el ultimo dividendo lo pago en Marzo y el próximo es en Junio, si cobraste el dividendo de Marzo no tienes porque preocuparte.

Saludos.

Sí, el de marzo lo tengo, así que debe haber sido un error de ellos que rápidamente rectificaron. Muchas gracias por la aclaración!

14/07/2019 Escribe TheConservativeincomInvestor su visión sobre EXXON MOBILE e IMPERIAL BRANDS, dos de sus últimas compras (sacado de su suscripción patreon):

High Dividends and Market-Beating Returns

Usually, high starting dividends require a sacrifice in terms of earnings per share growth. If you buy AT&T stock right now for the 6% yield, you are going to get 2-4% annual earnings per share growth and total returns that roughly approximate the historical performance of large-cap U.S. stocks. What draws me to investing, among other things, is the possibility of securing higher-than-average yields where there is also the prospect of higher-than-average earnings per share growth.

When possible, the point is to get annual returns in the 12-15% annual range, with much of it driven by cash payouts. Needless to say, these opportunities are difficult to find, but when located, can lead to life-changing outcomes.

For my part, I have made 401(k) investments into ExxonMobil (XOM) and Imperial Brands (IMBBY). With its recent quarterly dividend hike from $0.82 to $0.87 per share, Exxon now yields 4.5%. More so than any of its peers in the integrated energy sector, Exxon is pumping tens of billions of dollars into capital investments.

Exxon’s footprint, which already involves the production of 6 million barrels of oil and oil equivalents per day, has $8 billion devoted to the Permian Basian where Exxon estimates that it will be able to produce a million barrels of oil and oil equivalents per day by 2024.

Next year, Exxon will begin to fully execute upon its ongoing exploration and development operations in offshore Guyana. Next year, it will begin to add 120,000 barrels of oil production per day in Guyana with a five-year plan to scale up towards 350,000 barrels of oil per day. The company has been cagey on conference calls about the total amount of barrels of oil that it will be able to get out of its Guyana holdings, but the analyst estimates peg it at 5.5 billions barrels of oil and oil equivalents that will be able to be extracted in due course.

Given the inherent security issues in Guyana, Exxon has to protect what it owns. This is not the pursuit of the “quick buck.” But eventually, over a five to twenty year time frame and at a cost of several billion dollars, Guyana will become yet another major source of cash profits for Exxon shareholders.

The reason I tend to gravitate towards businesses like Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, ExxonMobil, FedEx, and now even Amazon, is because they are actually putting forth the enormous capital investments that are necessary to have a successful business in 2030. I have come to appreciate Warren Buffett’s adage about protecting the inherent characteristics of the business’ competitive advantage, and then the profits will follow. It is not that these businesses have never engaged in a maneuver to cut costs, but rather, that they use large chunks of their ongoing cash flows to bolster their competitive positions for decades, let alone years, into the future.

This relates to the major competitive advantage that these businesses currently enjoy, which is economies of scale. In the case of Exxon, it is spending about $40 million per year in security personnel and an additional $220 million (over a five-year time frame) in physical protections for its Guyana production. There is a reason why, whenever I discuss Exxon, I always return to the book “Private Empire”, which essentially regards Exxon as a paramilitary outfit with a government that issues its own currency and economy in oil, and would be a mid-tier government in its own right. You see those little XOM shares sitting in your account paying out $3.48 per share in dividends, and it can be easy to ignore that this is a truly global operation that will outlive the grandchildren of all of us living this. It’s the perpetual machine.

From a dividend perspective, Exxon has been about the only truly reliable dividend grow in an industry whose inherent characteristics lead to volatile profits and do not particularly support annual dividend growth. But Exxon’s profits are so diversified among upstream, downstream, transportation, and chemical divisions that it can rely upon downstream, transportation, and chemical profits to grow its dividend when upstream E&P profits are declining (and in comparison, that is why ConocoPhillips had to cut its dividend several years ago).

Currently, investors have become disillusioned with Exxon’s stock because it has remained stagnant over the past decade or so. So what? Johnson & Johnson was stagnant in the $60s and $70s through 2012, and now it’s at $130. In February, people were complaining that Coca-Cola seemed like it was stuck in the low $40s forever, and now it’s up to $52. An 18% has come over the past five months as about two years of gains were realized in a half-a-year period. We cannot control the sequence of returns; we can only identify businesses whose financial results are improving, and be patient, and fortunately collect the cash dividends when provided as warranted.

My view is that investors in Exxon stock in the low and mid-$70s will lead to great results down the line. It’s a massive conglomerate sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of assets, generating tens of billions of dollars in annual profits, across over 100 countries, with no dividend cuts since 1882 and annual dividend growth approaching 40 years. With a 4.5% dividend yield, and the possibility of 6-9% annual earnings per share growth, the prospects are promising. The capital gains, and the future yield-on-cost for the present owners, is extreme.

It is going to be one of those deals where someone buys $10,000 worth of Exxon stock today and is collecting $10,000 in annual dividends approximately 20-25 years from now. I regard it as the quintessential dividend growth stock, as it is the perfect blend of high quality, high starting yield, and high single-digit earnings per share growth. That is the sweet spot.

Elsewhere, the party goes on for me and Imperial Brands. Like I said, I’m normally an Altria and Philip Morris International guy, but the price of $25 per share drags me into it. It’s like when BP was trading at $27 per share after its oil spill. Yes, I’m normally more attracted to Exxon and Chevron, but at that price, BP reeled me in. In a sense, there is a similarity between post-oil spill BP and the current Imperial Brands, as both represent a stock beaten down due to legal issues and the basis for investment is that the company’s resources are vast and profitable and will be able to ride out the storm and a whole lot of money will be made once the storm completes.

About 320 billion packs of cigarettes are sold per year. Imperial Brands has 4% of the global market, or about 12.8 billion packs per year. About 85% of these cigarettes are sold across thirty countries, with most of these sales occurring in the United States, United Kingdom, Indonesia, Russia, Japan, Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, India, and Germany. In four of those countries, the tobacco shipments are actually increasing (at a rate of 1.4%) per year. Declining rates in the United Kingdom and the United States have captured the attention, with a 6% decline expected for 2019, which is the highest annual decline in the U.S. since dating back to at least 1980.

The knocks against Imperial are that: (1) U.S. and the United Kingdom are seeing declining volume sales; (2) the possible introduction of class-action lawsuits in Canada; (3) Imperials’ e-cigarette alternatives getting outcompeted by JUUL; and (4) management’s prior exuberant guidance for 10% annual dividend growth into perpetuity that has been recently revised down to dividend growth that will match earnings per share growth.

I believe these concerns are generally overblown. Although U.S. and U.K. tobacco sales are declining, even with 6% annual declines, the price per pack has increased 7.1% over the past twelve months so profits are still increasing even though volumes are declining.

Regarding the Canadian lawsuits, Imperials’ presence in Canada is somewhat small, and international peers like British American Tobacco will bear the brunt of much legal action. Further, Imperial only owns three brands that were selling cigarettes in Canada in the 1950s and it was responsible for less than 1% of the sales tobacco sales at the time the alleged misrepresentations about the effects of tobacco occurred. If Imperials’ five-year costs associated with Canadian tobacco litigation exceeded $2.5 billion, I would be surprised. And it wouldn’t be much more than that. A worst-case scenario would amount to about six months of the company’s annual profits.

For the e-cigarette alternatives, the market is ignoring the extent to which Imperial is likely to acquire a high-performing peer. Two years ago, investors were worried that Altria is failing in the alternatives to cigarette category. Then it bought 30% of JUUL and now it is a market leader. Cigarettes remain the king of profitability, and as alternatives come to replace tobacco, the old-guard tobacco manufacters will buy their way into e-cigarette, alternative to cigarettes, and even marijuana markets. Future projections regarding “post-tobacco” leadership can change with a single acquisition.

And then there is the issue with management, which previously predicted 10% annual dividend growth into perpetuity. I understand why corporate executives rarely make predictions about the future performance of a stock. If you predict 4-5% growth, you are setting the bar too low and people wonder what you’re getting paid for. If you set the bar high, economic cycles kick in and you don’t meet it, suddenly you’re underperforming expectations and dissatisfaction is bred as an unforced error.

Personally, I don’t get too caught up in management predictions. I care about the price of the stock on a given day compared to its future growth characteristics and the price at which it will trade at some date in the long-term future. I figure that Imperial will grow at a rate of 6-8%. That is what I always thought. Management was being a little optimistic in predicting 10% annual dividend growth, and now it’s been adjusted to a high single-digit reality. To me, it’s a non-event because divining the specifics of the future is hard and what I care about is actual business performance.

For now, the dividend yield is in the 10-11% range. What I really like, though, is the 12% earnings yield valuation for a company whose profits I expect to increase. With a P/E ratio in the high single digits, and gobs of dividends being paid to shareholders, I am incredibly intrigued by Imperial’s future prospects. I don’t have any predictions specific to the dividend one way or another, but I do think the 12% earnings yield is an accurate as profits are going to rise over time, and therefore the valuation is compelling. Among those profits, I expect that a lot of cash will be sent out to shareholders as dividends.

Compared to the S&P 500 Index, I expect that both Exxon and Imperial will generate much, much more in dividends, and will provide significantly more capital appreciation over time as well. I’m in.

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