Os dejo un link con el análisis que hizo Tim McAleenan Jr. hace más de un año cuando el ADR cotizaba a 43$ (ahora esta sobre los 40$)
https://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/glaxosmithkline-stock-a-fifteen-year-review/
I have four closing thoughts, three specific to Glaxo, and one in general:
First, when you see Glaxo’s 2.66% compounding since 2000, keep in mind that calculators are programmed to tally up total dividend payments and adjust for share price change. This is the correct way to calculate investment performance, but it often will understate the actual reality because you won’t let dividends pile up for 15 years. If you reinvested, you would have gotten 4.72% annual returns. And if the price recovers, using $60 as an example, suddenly those reinvested shares take on very high importance and your overall performance with dividends reinvested will rise significantly.
Secondly, as a factual matter, the stagnation of GlaxoSmithKline these past fifteen years is different than the stagnation at a peer like Johnson & Johnson. In the case of Johnson & Johnson, earnings were actually growing. At GSK, you got stagnation. A languishing price is fine if the profits are growing because it will eventually be remedied provided you didn’t overpay at the outset. With GlaxoSmithKline, the languishing is the result of the business itself languishing.
Thirdly, my prediction is that Glaxo will grow earnings in the 5-6% range over the long haul. At $43, that’s not a bad price to pay for a large dividend that ought to grow by low single digits over the long haul (but the dividend payments fluctuate with earnings, so you should view at as “collecting wads of cash” rather than an income stream that rises with precision. My prediction is that investors of today will earn returns that match or nearly match the S&P 500 while providing a large chunk of the returns as dividend income. And for the people that have been reinvesting since 2000? They will eventually reach a point where even those shares compound at a 6-7% rate.
And lastly, in general, you should recognize the importance of patience. In bull markets, people give it lip service. But even with the best businesses, I can find decade-long stretches where investors didn’t really get their due. People grow impatient and sell their stakes, and then the next investor comes along and earns outsized returns because they get to capture both subsequent business performance and valuation improvement to reflect what should have been accretive to you