Imperial Brands released reasonably strong full year results for fiscal 2020. Both volume and margins were ahead of our expectations. We continue to regard Imperial as being materially undervalued, and although this stable trading performance and guidance of modest profit growth next year is good news, we think it will take the communication of clear strategies to increase price/mix in the cigarettes portfolio and to gain share in next generation products for the upside to the market value to be realised. We retain our GBX 3,400 fair value estimate.
New CEO Stefan Bomhard is off to a good start. Adjusted full year revenue grew 0.8% over the prior year, with a 2% tobacco volume decline more than offset by pricing. The volume data was slightly better than our forecast, and implies market share gains, but this was driven by the value end of the portfolio, meaning there was modest pressure on the gross margin, which remained flat over last year. COVID-19 is likely to have played a role in supporting volumes of discount cigarettes, and we suspect mix will continue to be unfavourable in the first half of the next fiscal year as well. Nevertheless, the 20 basis point decline in operating profit was less than we had feared, in part because the decline in revenue from next generation products of around 30% was less than we had feared.
Imperial Brands backed the wrong horse when it invested heavily in vaping, a category that always seemed likely to fall foul of regulators by appealing to new consumers, and stayed on the sidelines while Philip Morris International succeeded in winning share in heated tobacco. A new strategy is required to persuade investors that Imperial will not stand by and watch its decline rate accelerate as smokers migrate to substitute products. The news that the market testing of Pulze had not gone well is disappointing, and suggests that incremental R&D spending will be required for Imperial to win share in the next generation product market.
Buenas, me ha saltado alerta en Clicktrader para dividend reinvested de IMB. Tenemos hasta el 9 de Diciembre para hacer la elección.
¿Alguien sabe cuantas acciones hay que tener para que te den otra adicional?..no logro verlo en ningún sitio.
Gracias por adelantado, un saludo
No es un scrip dividend, es un DRIP
Ok, gracias ruindog…si me acojo al DRIP ¿Qué ocurre con los restos que no cubran acciones completas?..supongo que me darán cash.
Quiero hacer la elección como en el caso de SCRIP (como hago con IBE), eligiendo exactamente el número de acciones por partes enteras y el resto en cash. Supongo que eso no lo sabré hasta el día 9 de Diciembre,¿no?
Gracias por la ayuda, en temas de DRIP Y SCRIP sigo muy verde 
Aquí no hay cotización de derechos ni nada parecido. Tu solo les das orden al broker para que reinvierta el dividendo de IMB.
Si recibes 151€ de dividendo neto y al reinvertirse en la compra de nuevas acciones de la misma compañía estas cotizan a 15€ al final acabarás con 10 acciones y 1 euro más en tu cuenta de valores.
Creo que con los DRIP no es igual que con los Scrip, ya que lo que hacen es comprar con el dividendo que te corresponde la acciones nuevas que se pueda, lo único que no se sabe que día lo hacen y que precio se paga. Lo bueno es que se ahorra uno muchas comisiones, pero luego ese cobro hay que declararlo , es decir en la proxima declaración hay que pagar el 19%. No es como con el Scrip que hasta que no vendas no pagas nada.
Yo siempre cojo efectivo, para no tener más lio con la declaración.
Un saludo
Gracias Felpeyu y ruindog, ya me voy aclarando.
La JUUL china sale a bolsa y ya vale mas que Imperial Brands 
El otro día estaba leyendo un artículo sobre la IPO y coincide con la visión de este caballero. Su mayor problema y competidor es precisamente el gobierno chino
RLX is seeking U.S. public capital market investment for its expansion plans within China.
The company’s financials show strong topline revenue growth, slight earnings and significant cash flow from operations and free cash flow.
Selling expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenues have increased and its Selling efficiency ratio has improved. Both signals are positive as to the firm’s capital efficiency in this important area.
The market opportunity for selling e-cigarettes in China is approximately 290 million smokers and management says this is the largest single such market in the world.
Citigroup is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 31.7% since their IPO. This is a middle-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.
As to valuation, RLX seeks a significant valuation premium over U.S. comparable Turning Point Brands ([TPB]).
In its favor, though, is RLX’ strong topline revenue growth rate and leading position in a huge market.
The main risk to the company’s business is the potential for negative government regulation, since the Chinese government is itself in a competitive position, selling legacy cigarettes to consumers.
However, I view this threat as only moderate, as the government also seeks to reduce the health care costs associated with legacy cigarette consumption.
Like many Chinese firms seeking to tap U.S. markets, the firm operates within a VIE structure or Variable Interest Entity. U.S. investors would only have an interest in an offshore firm with contractual rights to the firm’s operational results but would not own the underlying assets.
This is a legal gray area that brings the risk of management changing the terms of the contractual agreement or the Chinese government altering the legality of such arrangements. Prospective investors in the IPO would need to factor in this important structural uncertainty.
While there are regulatory risks the company faces and the IPO isn’t cheap, the firm’s growth potential, breakeven financial result and strong free cash flow generation mean the IPO is worth a close look.
Expected IPO Pricing Date: January 20, 2021.
Es una pena que el resto del mundo no presione a China para que liberalice su mercado del tabaco. Si PM, BATS, IMB y JT puedesen operar en China …
Parece que el nuevo CEO es igual de inutil que el anterior
Esto es ser claro y conciso
¿Igual? ¿Y no vale decir que es MAS?
Porque este ya se encontró con toda la kk hecha, y lo tenía a wevo para sacar lo que pudiera quedar debajo de las alfombras y cargarlo en la mochila del predecesor y así poder de algún modo empezar sin piedras en la suya. Al menos sin piedras nuevas.
Parece que no ha habido suerte y seguimos en más de lo mismo.
@vash, tú que te hablas con la gente del mundo, ¿Por qué no levantas el teléfono y llamas a alguno de los de Reddit?
Ahora que los pillas ya en caliente igual …
Un saludo.
Del amigo Stefan …
“Imperial also said it expects to continue to raise its
dividend annually and buy back shares after cutting down debt
towards the lower end of its net debt to EBITDA target range of
2-2.5 times.”
Así que como se empeñen en ir al rango bajo de 2 veces EBITDA hasta el 2023 ni flus.
Un saludo.