While Mastercard still faces some headwinds, year-over-year growth was strong in the fourth quarter as the company continued to rebound from the impact of the pandemic. In our view, the relatively quick recovery and the company’s strong profitability through the pandemic support our wide-moat rating, and we believe the secular drivers that have supported Mastercard’s historical growth remain in place. While some near-term uncertainty remains given the rise of new variants and the fact that cross-border volumes have yet to fully recover, we think the company should be able to continue to achieve relatively high growth in the near term as headwinds ease. We will maintain our $352 fair value estimate.
In the quarter, net revenue grew 28% on a constant-currency basis, driven primarily by a 23% increase in gross dollar volume and 27% growth in switched transactions. We estimate domestic gross dollar volume in the quarter has grown at a 13% CAGR since the fourth quarter of 2019. In our view, this suggests that underlying domestic growth has actually accelerated a bit from pre-pandemic levels, supporting the idea that the pandemic has accelerated the transition from cash.
Cross-border volume remains the most depressed area, and cross-border carries outsize importance for Mastercard, given much higher fees for these transactions. But we see the results in the quarter as encouraging. Excluding intra-Europe transactions (which are priced similarly to domestic transactions), cross-border volumes grew 63% year over year on a constant currency basis. Volumes in the quarter were 98% of the 2019 level, suggesting the company has almost fully offset the pandemic decline. Numbers for the first three weeks of January were a bit above the pre-pandemic level, suggesting the omicron variant is not acting as a major drag. We continue to expect a full recovery in travel spending over time, and this dynamic could drive outsize growth for Mastercard over the next couple of years.
La cosa es que su media de los últimos 10 años es de 35 veces, así que si nos agarramos a eso, está comprando básicamente en su PER histórico. Cualquier compra a esas valoraciones los últimos 10 años han sido bastante fructíferas.
El debate sería si el mercado le va a otorgar siempre una sobrevaloración por su calidad.
Muchas empresas han convertido un PER 15-20 en un PER de 25-30 la última década como “nueva normalidad”. Se podría justifica perfectamente con un crecimiento a doble dígito elevado, pero cada vez es más común ver un premium por calidad en empresas cercanas al crecimiento de un dígito en clara etapa de madurez.
Es un arma de doble filo. Por un lado son empresas que quieres tener, y si el mercado decide que su calidad merece ese múltiplo de forma perpetua, hay muchas oportunidades para comprarlas. Ahora, una contracción de múltiplo hasta 15-20 + desaceleración de crecimiento da un vértigo alucinante desde esos niveles.
A toro pasado todos somos Manolete. Es decir, claro que es mejor que recompren a menores precios que ahora. Pero hay dos cuestiones ¿Llegarán esos menores precios? ¿Cuándo llegasen tendrás dinero disponible?
En general creo que se demonizan demasiado las recompras.
Lo que comento es que prefiero que no hagan recompras de modo sistemático cada año y las modulen en función de la valoración, ya sea PER, DCF, o lo que prefieran
