Molson Coors (TAP)

Empresa defensiva (Cerveza.
Acaba de aumentar un 39% su dividendo y esta reduciendo la deuda muy bien.

Molson Coors Hikes Its Dividend Yield To 4.5%, And That’s Good News And Bad News

Molson Coors has hiked its dividend by 39% to $0.57.

  • Now the EBITDA appears to be declining, I think that extra cash should be used to reduce the net debt, and not to reward shareholders.
  • That being said, reneging on previous dividend commitments could cause irreparable damage, so as long as there won’t be any additional hikes, I’m fine with it.
  • The increased dividend now results in a 4.5% dividend yield, making Molson Coors a more attractive dividend investment while it continues to repay debt.
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Molson Coors es una empresa que lo tenía un tanto olvidado pues llevaba años con el dividendo congelado y con un yield del entorno del 3%, pero con esta fuerte subida ese yield se nos va al 4,5% y lo veo con otros ojos.
Es un sector que me gusta, muy muy defensivo, y además al vender marcas comerciales se supone que en momentos de crisis mucha gente que ahora esté consumiendo cervezas artesanales (mas caras) vuelva a estas primeras.
Lo veo con los mismos problemas que tenía y sigue teniendo Anheuser Busch: está haciendo la digestión por las fuertes compras. Por una parte hace años compró la británica Carling y con la fusión Abi y SabMiller anticompetencia les obligó a estos desprenderse de Coors Miller y Tap se quedo con la marca.
Payout del 50%, aunque su dividend policy curiosamente se basa en el Ebitda (está repartiendo en la orquilla baja de esa política).
No creo que tenga problemas de mantener su divi aunque no sería descartable pensar que lo congele durante unos años para priorizar pagar la deuda (ya lo esta haciendo).
Otra cosa que me gusta es que la empresa lo controlan dos familias, los Molson y los Coors. Si os fijáis las acciones que se cotizan son las de la clase B (sin derecho a voto).
¿Cómo lo veis? ¿Opiniones?

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Lo has definido muy bien. Anheuser fue obligada a vender y creo que Molson Coors fue obligada a comprar. Un crecimiento y deudas no buscados ni planificados previamente que las 2 familias están reduciendo a buen ritmo.

Las empresas que entran en deuda, bien gestionadas pueden ser buena oportunidad de compra, ya que al reducir la deuda el mercado las revalora drásticamente igual que las hunde drasticamemte al asumir la deuda.

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A mi me parece un empresa interesante. Aquí un análisis interesante:

http://www.eldividendo.com/molson-coors/

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4303719-molson-coors-transition-brewing-company-beverage-company

Tiene ahora un dividendo del 4,33%.

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Me gusta, no la conocía. Lo mismo me planteo una primera entrada.

Gracias P.

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si los datos de investing son correctos, me huele a recorte de dividendo en breve.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310558-why-molson-coors-is-buyable-uncertain-new-direction

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M*

In our opinion, Molson Coors is disproportionately situated in secularly disadvantaged beer segments as the alcoholic beverage industry has fragmented. Consequently, we have downgraded our economic moat rating to none from narrow and believe that any vestiges of moatworthy traits will continue to erode. We have cut our fair value estimate to $60 per share from $66 to reflect the valuation implications of our moat downgrade as well as slightly less rosy margin assumptions, offset by a reduction in our systematic risk rating and consequent discount rate to align with our global beverage coverage.

image

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Ehhhhhh???
Me lo expliquen…

Molson Coors está desproporcionadamente situado en segmentos de cerveza secularmente desfavorecidos, ya que la industria de bebidas alcohólicas se ha fragmentado.

No si traducirlo se hacerlo yo. Lo que no se es que c. significa eso.

Que los gustos estan cambiando y las marcas de Molson Coors no son precisamente las que mas se demandan

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Ves, asi si lo veo pero M* no dice eso. Habla de la la fragmentación de la industria de bebidas alcohólicas (como tu bien has traducido) cosa que es completamente incorrecta. Ya que lo que se ha producido es justamente lo contrario…

Extracto del Estudio Fusiones y Adquisiciones en el Mercado del Alcohol.
Impacto de las Fusiones y Adquisiciones en la creación de valor para los accionistas
Autor: Francisco Vallejo Prieto
Director: Rosa Martínez Cal
Madrid Abril, 2014

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Tu hablas de la industria de bebidas alcoholicas en general y M* se refiere a las marcas de cerveza y sobre todo a las marcas que crecen que son sobre todo cerveza de importacion y artesana. En US ha habido un boom en esos segmentos y aunque la mayor parte de la cerveza la siguen produciendo las grandes si que ha habido fragmentacion.

Del informe de M*

premium stock-keeping units tend to be offered by a litany of smaller competitors in addition to the large incumbents, and consequently there is much more fragmentation at the high end.

Da igual, yo no lo veo.
A lo que me refería desde un principio es que no hay un dato financiero que corrobore la bajada de moat y de valor objetivo de la acción, y se da una escusa, para mi criterio, un tanto peregrina.
In our opinion, Molson Coors is disproportionately situated in secularly disadvantaged beer segments as the alcoholic beverage industry has fragmented.

Por lo que te rebajo el moat y el precio objetivo y me quedo igual…

Consequently, we have downgraded our economic moat rating to none from narrow and believe that any vestiges of moatworthy traits will continue to erode. We have cut our fair value estimate to $60 per share from $66 to reflect the valuation implications of our moat downgrade as well as slightly less rosy margin assumptions , offset by a reduction in our systematic risk rating and consequent discount rate to align with our global beverage coverage.

PD. Estoy/Sigo largo en TAP

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Cuando se siguen informaciones de terceros se da cierta confianza a sus propios cálculos y valoraciones (sin tener que exponer datos y números constantemente), de otra manera no se les tiene en cuenta y uno se hace sus propias valoraciones (que posiblemente sea lo mejor). No hay más. O das por buena la opinión de M* o no la das…

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Desconocía el gran éxito que han tenido los “hard-seltzers” en USA. ¿Se pueden encontrar algunas de estas marcas en los supermercados españoles?

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Esto escribía The Conservative Income Investor sobre Boston Beer (SAM) en Mayo del 2017 cuando cotizaba a 144$

There are few businesses in which investor sentiment has shifted between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism quite like Boston Beer (SAM). Before the financial crisis hit, the stock traded at $55 per share. Then, it fell to $17 in 2009. By the next year, the stock quintupled in price to over $100. The stock price continued to accelerate all through 2015 when the stock hit a high of $325 based on strong sales of Angry Orchard cider which augmented core earnings from the primary Sam Adams brand. When the volume growth stagnated, the stock price got cut in half to the present day value of $144 per share.

This has caught my attention. Boston Beer distinguishes itself from other alcohol brands by maintaining an absolutely phenomenal balance sheet. Due to the high costs of establishing breweries, distribution channels, and the advertising necessary to “build a brand”, the industry debt average is about 5.6x net profits. Though this is heavily skewed by the debt of Anheuser-Busch Inbev, which has $123 billion in debt against just under $10 billion in net profits. When you remove BUD from the calculations, the industry debt average is around 4x profits.

Every since finding its initial success with the Sam Adams brand, Boston Beer has chosen to maintain a very conservative balance sheet so that it would always have the cash on hand to weather any difficult market conditions. Currently, the business has no debt, $91 million cash in the bank, and annual profits in the $65-$75 million range.

As a prospective investor, I love this. All too often, businesses cloak themselves in leverage that is rarely discussed, and then the beer brand disappears as soon as soon as a fad wears out because there is not enough cash ballast remaining to make a strong advertising push that would reinvigorate the brand.

Boston Beer does not have this problem. It can afford to run meaningful advertising campaigns when it wants to spur demand, expand into new offerings, and enlarge.

I would expect to see heavy advertising into Sam Adams and Angry Orchard or the acquisition of a new brand within the next year or two. The management at Boston Beer knows what it is doing. Over the past ten years, an examination periods that features a deep recession, Boston Beer stock has compounded at a rate of 17.5% to $10,000 into $46,000. This data is fully reflective of Boston Beer’s results even after its recent price swing down from $325. And those results are entirely based on actual business performance and free cash flows that supported stock repurchases—there is no debt-fueled financial engineering here.

Also, Boston Beer comes with a lottery ticket of sorts. If there is a meaningful tax cut on the corporate rates within the next year or two, Boston Beer will feel the full effects of it because it generates nearly all of its net income inside the United States. It paid 37% in taxes on its income last year. If the corporate rate went down, you would see a direct, linear increase in Boston Beer’s overall earnings. This would lead it to outperform multinationals that already take advantage of tax havens in the short term. This is not an independently sufficient basis to invest in Boston Beer, but it is a nice ancillary benefit that may be in the offing to increase profits.

The current valuation of the stock is a little over 20x earnings. There is a realistic possibility that earnings per share could double in the next five years from the current $5.40 per share to the $11 range. Because the business is still so small, it can justify a P/E ratio in the neighborhood of 30. The realistic best case scenario for this stock is a price in the neighborhood of $300 to $350 per share in 2023, assuming that the United States is not in a recession at that end point.

It is a very simple, high single digit / low double digit growth business business with an excellent balance sheet. If you are looking to add smaller companies with valuations around $1 billion or so to your portfolio, Boston Beer is worth a look.

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