Ahí os dejo un gráfico de rendimiento a 10-15 años según PER shiller actual
Pongo este párrafo de un hilo de Seeking Alpha.
Me parece muy interesante y puede guiar la compras de los próximos meses.
“Today on Fast Money Halftime (CNBC) I saw the best TV reporting since I have been watching it. It was full of useful information. I will summerize what I saw in my words:Guests:
Thomas Lee-Head of Fundstrat Research and a CNBC contributor that has appeared many times on the business shows. I like his research and his explanations for where and why.Mike Wilson-Morgan Standley Chief US Equity Stategist that looks past the numbers and the pervasive analyst noise that they share as a “Group Think” describing the merits and flaws of a company, sector, or markets.According to Mike, analysts are focusing on value versus growth when that is the wrong continuum to describe what is happening now in the US markets. It is actually a battle between cyclic and defenseive positions, with cyclicals rising and defense falling out of favor. This will last for the first half of this year until interest rates reverse and people seek a more defensive posture going forward.
Why?The drop in corporate taxes will mask weak earnings, boltering returns, that lack the financial merits to grow because of good business practices and not some tax event. As in the past with a rising interest rate environment, this will run out of steam and contract like it did previously (peak to valley-my words). It will take two quarters to become apparent the revenues didn’t rise because business is good and growing.When that happens funds and retail investors will turn to a more secure sector (staples, utilities, REIT’s, and Healthcare- the bond proxies) beaten down by the cyclic expected growth and cast aside as too sensitive for a rising interest rate environment. In my words, a buying opportunity for safety stocks over the next 6 months, some beaten down harder than others not only in REIT’s and Utilities.Mr Lee was asked about the direction of the markets and stated a net upward bias. Both saying anything could cause a 10% pullback that hasn’t happened in a long while, and returns would be better from Europe and Asia. One of the primary reasons was the lower valuations some companies have across the pond.The discussion turned to GE. Neither think that all the bad news is in the price. Mr Lee thinks there are more surprises to be announced only this time in the power generation segment of their businesses. In short Mike concurred that all the news and expectations are not in the stock price now. Both haave reservations that some companies can be spun off with GE Capital backing all of the businesses in some manner or form. This is the glue that binds them together and would make it difficult to untether most anything. They need capital and they need a way to get it, thus putting the dividend in question again.”
Así que parece ser que hay 6 meses de oportunidades para Utilities, REITs y quizá consumer Staples.
Muy buen aporte Luís.
Ojalá sea cierto! Sería una buena oportunidad de cargar en sectores defensivos. Esperaremos a ver que sucede 