No estoy muy seguro porque no llevo ninguna de La France y todos estos detalles los suelo leer “de través”, pero creo recordar haber leído algo sobre que ING lo podría ofrecer en aquellas que previamente ya tuvieran un programa de registro propio abierto (algo lógico por otra parte) y no me suena que se haya comentado por aquí que SAN lo tuviera.
Sanofi reported fourth-quarter results and issued 2023 guidance largely in line with our expectations, and we don’t expect any major fair value estimate changes based on the update. We continue to view the stock as undervalued, with the market not fully appreciating the firm’s ability to drive cash flows from immunology drug Dupixent and redeploy the gains toward successful new drug development. While the Dupixent sales gains (up 42% to EUR 2.4 billion) were impressive, the ability to drive successful drug development has been less robust recently. Nevertheless, with patent protection on Dupixent for almost another decade, we believe Sanofi will have increasing success with its earlier-stage drug pipeline, partly based on a shift toward more innovative drugs, reinforcing the firm’s wide moat.
In the quarter, sales increased 3% operationally, with strong gains from Dupixent offsetting declines by more mature drugs, a trend we expect will continue for several years. Despite annualizing at close to EUR 10 billion, we believe Dupixent holds solid growth potential due to significant market share still available in atopic dermatitis and severe asthma as well as several smaller indications. The strength of Dupixent was partly offset by Aubagio generics (multiple sclerosis), which will significantly increase in most major markets in 2023. Also, Sanofi’s noncore older drugs (close to 10% of total sales) fell over 10% and will likely face continued headwinds.
On the pipeline, Sanofi is making strides, but more work is needed. In the near term, we are bullish on the outlook for hemophilia drug Altuviiio, with an expected approval in early 2023. Also, while higher risk, pivotal 2023 data for Dupixent (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), tusamitamab ravtansine (lung cancer), fitusiran (hemophilia), and tolebrutinib (multiple sclerosis) could represent upside to our fair value. Longer term, the firm’s early- and mid-stage pipeline holds several drugs with strong potential.
Sanofi’s asthma and eczema drug Dupixent met all targets in a trial to treat “smoker’s lung”, giving a major boost to the French drugmaker’s growth prospects, but also underscoring a heavy reliance on its bestseller.