The Part Time Investor

Abro hilo para este colaborador de Seeking Alpha que lleva varios años publicando la estrategia y movimientos de su cartera DGI con periodicidad trimestral.

Admito que la simplicidad de su sistema de inversión me ha “enamorado” :wink:

The K.I.S.S. System

Over the past six years, I have been developing and refining my Keep It Simple, Stupid (K.I.S.S.) system for creating a dividend growth portfolio. The system I developed has been discussed in my previous updates, but as a quick summary, my criteria for buying stocks are as follows:

For Purchase of Regular Stocks

  • The stock is on the Dividend Champions, Contenders and Challengers (“CCC”) list (as previously compiled by David Fish, but now compiled by Justin Law); (Thank you, David. You will be missed. I couldn’t have done any of this without you)
  • The payout ratio < 60%;
  • For stocks with a yield between 2.0% and 2.5%, the Chowder Number (Dividend yield + 5-yr dividend growth rate) >16;
  • For stocks with a yield between 2.5% and 3.0%, the Chowder Number (Dividend yield + 5-yr dividend growth rate) >14;
  • For stocks with a yield greater than 3.0%, the Chowder Number (Dividend yield + 5-yr dividend growth rate) >12;
  • A credit rating of BBB- (Investment grade) or better from S&P (found on F.A.S.T. Graphs); and
  • F.A.S.T. Graphs shows a 10-year uptrend in earnings, and shows that the stock is not overvalued.

The Chowder number is the 5 year dividend growth rate plus the present dividend yield. The use of different Chowder Number requirements is a change I made to my criteria over the past few years. I prefer to have stocks with higher yields, but if the rest of the story is compelling enough, I am willing to buy stocks with yields in the 2.0% to 3.0% range if their DGRs and Chowder Numbers are higher, as shown in my criteria above. Please see the previous article I wrote about different yields, DGRs and Chowder Numbers to read about my thinking on this topic.

For Purchase of MLPs, REITs, Utilities and Telecoms (High Yielders)

  • The stock is on CCC list;
  • Yield > 4%;
  • Chowder Number > 8%;
  • DGR for all time periods (1-yr., 3-yr., 5-yr. and 10-yr.) of at least 4.0%;
  • F.A.S.T. Graph shows a 10-year uptrend (or for the life of the company, if less than 10 years) in funds from operations ("FFO"); and
  • F.A.S.T. Graph shows that the stock is not overvalued based on its FFO.

The time it takes to run this screen is only about 2-3 hours per quarter since most of the work has already been done for us by way of the CCC list, F.A.S.T. Graphs and S&P.

My criteria for selling a stock are also very simple. I will only sell if the stock cuts its dividend. I do not look at anything else when deciding whether or not to sell. Therefore, the only other work that needs to be done during the quarter is to watch for the dividend announcement from each company and put in a sell order if there is a dividend cut. One caveat, as I mention below, I will sell spin-offs from my stocks if those new companies don't have dividend policies I'm comfortable or familiar with. Again, it comes down to the dividend.


Compra y Ventas de acciones durante el cuatro trimestre del 2018

In early November Buckeye Partners cut its dividend 40% from $1.2625 down to $0.75. As per my rules of selling a stock if it cuts its dividend, I immediately sold it.

OK, here is a rare exception to my “sell only if the dividend is cut” rule. I have owned Wells Fargo for many years and have been happy with its performance and dividend payments. But then I had a personal experience with the bank in which I feel they stole thousands of dollars from me. Based on my experience with them I felt I could no longer keep the stock. So I sold it

After selling BPL I ran my screen to look for a replacement. I chose Invesco Limited

Invesco (IVZ)

  • Dividend Yield 7.17%
  • Payout Ratio 47.24%
  • Chowder Number 19.6%
  • S&P Credit Rating BBB+

To replace Wells Fargo I wanted to choose another bank stock with similar dividend metrics. I ran my screen and out of the banks that passed I chose JP Morgan.

JP Morgan (JPM)

  • Dividend Yield 3.28%
  • Payout Ratio 37.12%
  • Chowder Number 15.4%
  • S&P Credit Rating A-

Reiversión de Dividendos durante el cuatro trimestre del 2018 (PAAY)

When reinvesting I put my available cash not back into the stocks that paid the dividend but instead into more shares of my most undervalued positions. This is where my "Percent Above Average Yield" (PAAY) system comes in. I discussed how I use PAAY in a previous article, and I recently published an article showing the results of my PAAY reinvestments over the past 5 years. As I explain in the article, so far my PAAY investments have returned 15.47% as compared to the S&P which would have returned 14.27%. Please note that I use PAAY only to rank the companies already in my portfolio for purposes of reinvesting my dividends, not for new purchases. (It would be too difficult to calculate the PAAY for all stocks under consideration for purchase.)

This quarter the following ten stocks in my portfolio had the highest PAAY (in parentheses)

  • Invesco Limited (IVZ) 51.30%
  • Ameriprise (AMP) 40.98%
  • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 38.75%
  • Blackrock (BLK) 34.90%
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) 33.95%
  • First of Long island (FLIC) 33.06%
  • Harris Corp. (HRS) 32.57%
  • Boeing (BA) 32.03%
  • Raytheon (RTN) 31.97%
  • General Dynamics (GD) 30.67%

However, I already have a very large position in Boeing, so I decided to bypass that stock and move to the next one in line which was IBM.

  • IBM (IBM) 28.15%

Therefore, after purchasing full positions of Invesco and JP Morgan I reinvested the remaining money I had available in the following 10 stocks:

Ameriprise Financial 26 shares @ 103.73, commission of $0.78 for a total of $2,697.76

Blackrock 7 shares @ 390.14, commission of $0.21 for a total of $2,731.19.

First of Long Island 135 shares @ 19.89, commission of $4.05 for a total of $2,689.19

General Dynamics (GD) 17 shares @ 156.52, commission of $0.51 for a total of $2,661.35.

Harris Corp (HRS) 21 shares @ 133.07, commission of $0.63 for a total of $2,795.26.

IBM (IBM) 24 shares @ 113.43, commission of $0.72 for a total of $2,723.04.

Invesco (IVZ) 162 shares @ 16.66, commission of $4.86 for a total of $2,703.76.

Illinois Tool Works 22 shares @ 125.76, commission of $0.66 for a total of $2,737.38.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) 10 shares @ 261.16, commission of $030 for a total of $2,611.90.

Raytheon (RTN) 17 shares @ 152.34, commission of $0.51 for a total of $2,590.29

Candidatos a Compra durante el mes de Enero 2019 según el sistema K.I.S.S

***Regular Stocks (Yield, Payout, Chowder Number)

Ameriprise Financial Inc. (AMP)

3.45 26.76 21.22

AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ABC)

2.15 32.19 21.86

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

2.98 47.82 29.13

BB&T Corp. (BBT)

3.74 44.26 14.38

Best Buy Corp. (BBY)

3.40 37.82 18.27

BlackRock Inc. (BLK)

3.19 45.21 13.94

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)

3.05 54.10 28.75

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)

2.23 31.15 17.10

Cummins Inc. (CMI)

3.41 34.26 21.93

Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN)

3.39 29.77 17.82

Eaton Corp. plc (ETN)

3.85 55.46 13.41

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV)

3.98 42.30 12.05

Hubbell Inc. (HUBB)

3.38 52.91 14.69

Illinois Tool Works (ITW)

3.16 53.55 16.49

Investors Bancorp (ISBC)

4.23 58.67 80.09

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

3.28 37.12 15.42

Kroger Company (KR)

2.04 16.97 16.67

Lockheed Martin (LMT)

3.36 51.10 15.81

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)

3.12 24.88 19.80

Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)

3.28 41.81 17.13

Packaging Corp of America (PKG)

3.79 44.01 25.33

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC)

3.25 39.26 14.15

Quest Diagnostics Inc. (DGX)

2.55 39.92 24.04

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

2.86 33.25 40.04

TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD)

2.45 48.58 25.12

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA)

3.57 47.18 12.73

***High Yield Stocks (Yield, Chowder Number, DGR-1yr, DGR 3-yr, DGR-5Yr, DGR-10yr)

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP)

6.85 21.4 10.0 12.7 13.2 8.5

Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)

4.71 17.9 10.0 12.7 13.2 8.5

Si alguien quiere consultar la composición actual de su cartera aquí está el enlace:

La versión resumida:

  • 65 Stocks
  • Valor Cartera: 1.686.000$
  • Dividendos Anuales: 61.000$

Otro tema es que hacer cuando ya casi lo tienes todo!

Aqui coincido con @bcartera carpe diem.

Por lo que recuerdo haber leído es un médico de esos que aman su profesión y tiene un sueldo de seis cifras. A ver quien supera eso :wink:

Discrepo contigo exen. El Carpe Diem ha de ser siempre el primer objetivo tengas esa cartera o no. Jajajajaja

Por cierto alguien sabe en cuántos brokers tiene este monstruo depositada esa pedazo cartera¿ Simple curiosidad por saber si la paranoia de la diversificación en brokers es solo nuestra o también al otro lado del charco…

Si allí cubren 500k debería usar al menos 3 :slight_smile:

Most of my portfolio is held in a Univest account, which charges a 3c per share commission. This was negotiated by my company when we moved our pension account, and I have no ability to move to a different company with lower commissions, or to get the commissions lowered. However, on the good side, I can buy only a few shares at a time, if I wanted to, and pay only a few cents in commissions, rather than always paying a flat fee of 4-8 dollars.

Some of my stocks are held in two Schwab accounts (formerly optionsXpress)

Muchas gracias ruindog por abrir este hilo y sobre todo por aportar el enlace de su cartera. Debería ser de lectura obligada para aquellos que todavía estamos en fase de aprendizaje.
Según lo explica, al final todo es más fácil de lo que a veces nos complicamos en hacerlo:
Empresas DGI , con un pay out controlado , y con un numero de Chowder que depende de su yield, pero siempre mayor de 12.

Muchas gracias Ruindog por el aporte!
Precisamente ayer estaba leyendo este autor y me pareció muy interesante por su sencillez, me hice seguidor jejeje
Un saludo!


Conocía su operativa KISS y siempre me ha parecido muy sencilla y perfecta para un estilo de inversión como el nuestro.

Ahora bien, con esa cartera creo que puede empezar a hacer lo que le dé la gana… xD

Gracias, como siempre por tan buenos aportes, Ruindog.

Añade un nuevo criterio al screener (el dividend safety score de SSD debe estar por encima de 61)

February Passing Stocks

Company Ticker Div. EPS% Chowder
Name Symbol Sector Industry Yield Payout Rule
Assurant Inc. AIZ Financials Insurance 2.49 38.28 21.4
Amgen Inc. AMGN Health Care Biotechnology 3.10 47.82 26.0
Ameriprise Financial Inc. AMP Financials Capital Markets 2.84 26.73 14.8
TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. AMTD Financials Capital Markets 2.14 38.34 21.1
BB&T Corp. BBT Financials Banks 3.32 41.43 13.8
Best Buy Corp. BBY Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 3.04 37.82 24.5
BlackRock Inc. BLK Financials Capital Markets 3.02 47.03 15.3
Comcast Corp. CMCSA Communication Services Media 2.30 34.29 16.5
Discover Financial Services DFS Financials Consumer Finance 2.37 19.75 17.5
Eastman Chemical Co. EMN Materials Chemicals 3.08 29.77 16.4
Eaton Corp. plc ETN Industrials Electrical Equipment 3.46 55.46 12.9
First American Financial Corp. FAF Financials Insurance 3.35 38.80 30.6
Hubbell Inc. HUBB Industrials Electrical Equipment 3.07 52.91 14.3
Ingredion Inc. INGR Consumer Staples Food Products 2.53 38.82 14.1
Illinois Tool Works ITW Industrials Machinery 2.91 53.55 19.4
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM Financials Banks 3.09 35.60 15.9
Lockheed Martin LMT Industrials Aerospace & Defense 3.04 51.10 14.4
Lincoln National Corp. LNC Financials Insurance 2.53 42.90 25.0
Lowe's Companies LOW Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 2.00 42.48 23.2
ManpowerGroup Inc. MAN Industrials Professional Services 2.56 24.88 19.6
Magna International Inc. MGA Consumer Discretionary Auto Components 2.49 19.73 18.1
Nasdaq Inc. NDAQ Financials Capital Markets 2.00 44.78 28.7
NetApp Inc. NTAP Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 2.51 38.19 34.5
Omnicom Group Inc. OMC Communication Services Media 3.08 41.81 12.9
Packaging Corp of America PKG Materials Containers & Packaging 3.35 44.01 19.2
PNC Financial Services Group Inc. PNC Financials Banks 3.10 35.38 17.7
Snap-on Inc. SNA Industrials Machinery 2.29 33.87 18.9
State Street Corp. STT Financials Capital Markets 2.65 29.33 14.4
Target Corp. TGT Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail 3.51 49.14 13.3
Tyson Foods Inc. TSN Consumer Staples Food Products 2.42 28.46 43.9

High Yield Stocks

Company Ticker DGR DGR DGR DGR
Name Symbol Sector Industry 1-yr 3-yr 5-yr 10-yr
Digital Realty Trust DLR Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 6.5 5.2 4.9 12.3
Simon Property Group Inc. SPG Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 10.5 9.3 12.6 8.8

No conocía a este colaborador de SA.

  • Cuando ví el dinero que destinaba a cada compra mensual sólo cabían dos posibilidades: tener un flujo de caja (vía sueldo+ dividendos) bestial o dinero que tenía acumulado e iba invirtiendo poco a poco. Vista que es la primera opción coincido con BCartera de que con esas cifras y esos pasivos esto rueda solo. De hecho, en inversión en acciones se dice que llegar a la barrera de los primeros 100.000 Euros invertidos supone un salto. En inversión vía dividendos (DGI) el salto fuerte lo notaremos cuando lleguemos a 20.000 Euros de dividendos anuales.
  • Siendo KISS y siendo B&H / DGI me resulta curiosa su cartera pues hay muchas ausencias de las que muchos consideramos clásicas/imprescindibles para esta estrategia. Es que si quito a LMT, LOW y TGT o en menor medida ITW, AMGN, BLK o Comcast (no tan habituales) el resto es que en general ni me suenan.
  • Veo que usa la fórmula del nº de Chowder a 5 años cuando curiosamente el creador de la fórmula ya no la usa con esos parámetros.
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Aparte de los que mencionas también aparecen muchos de los sospechosos habituales en su cartera (AAPL, CVX, D, DE, EMR, JNJ, MCD, MSFT, O, PEP, PG, QCOM, SO, WBA, WMT, WPC, OHI…)

Y si confías en sus cálculos, el retorno total de su cartera supera a varios índices…

On an annual basis since 2013 the returns for my benchmarks are as follows:
SPY 11.07%
SDY 10.46%
VDIGX 10.22%

The annual return for my KISS portfolio during this time is 12.23%

Hola, ¿podrías explicar, o poner link, sobre que parametros utiliza ahora chowder?.


Yo sinceramente ya no sé si utiliza el “beat and raise”, el “circle the wagons”, el “next man up” o todos juntos a la vez :wink:

Hay un hilo en este foro el cual hace un seguimiento. Personalmente no estaría entre los que intento seguir con mayor o menor asiduidad pero creo que ahora utiliza el nº de Chowder cogiendo sólo el crecimiento a 1 año.

Como dice Ruindog es tal el mareo de estrategias que uno ya no sabe por donde tira. Si a eso le unimos que tiene un ego que no le cabe pues como que prefiero leer a otro tipo de inversores.

Cierto, que si Chowder, que si KISS, el otro, el de la moto, al final creo que hay que buscar lo sencillo, buenísimas empresas, con deuda controlada o mejor sin ella, a precios justos y aprovechar los crash flash (o como se diga) cuando se tercie. Lo demás es marear las cosas en mi opinión. Quizás así no compremos chollos con grandes revalorizaciones y cueste más tiempo llegar a la If o lo que cada uno busque pero la tranquilidad que debe dar actuar así…

Un saludo.