Unilever’s Dividend Appears Safe But Bid for GSK Consumer Health Raises Longer-term Questions
Reaffirmed Jan 19, 2022
Earlier this week, shares of Unilever slumped approximately 15% following headline news of the company’s failed attempt to acquire GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) consumer healthcare business for $68 billion.
The consumer goods maker’s rejected bid was part of Unilever’s newly adopted strategy to combat years of stagnant revenue by expanding its exposure to higher-growth categories like health, beauty, and hygiene while divesting its lower-growth food products.
While Unilever’s strategy seems prudent, investors were spooked by the size of the GSK offer, which amounted to over 40% of the company’s market cap at the time of the bid and valued GSK’s healthcare business at a rich 22x EBITDA multiple, per Fitch.
Shareholders are concerned such a bold acquisition attempt would fail to create meaningful value for shareholders. The proposal also suggests management no longer believes there is a pathway back to stronger growth rates with Unilever’s current portfolio of products.
While GSK rejected the offer for being too low, a statement by Unilever to address the bid suggests the company remains determined to shift its portfolio to higher growth categories like consumer healthcare. This strategy could mean the company will increase its offer for GSK’s consumer healthcare company or simply pivot to other acquisition opportunities.
If Unilever and GSK can agree upon a transaction price, it will require a significant amount of debt financing. We estimate Unilever’s leverage ratio would stretch beyond the company’s long-maintained 2x target to at least 5x, which is well beyond our comfort level.
Source: Simply Safe Dividends
Fitch warned that such a stretched balance sheet could result in a “multi-notch downgrade” from Unilever’s current A-band rating, which management sternly wants to avoid.
To maintain the firm’s impressive credit ratings, Unilever would need to deleverage quickly after a transaction of this size. While the company plans to help fund potential acquisitions with proceeds from selling off food brands, which account for about one-third of the firm’s revenue, the dividend could come under pressure if it’s unable to divest these products promptly.
Fitch has even suggested that in this situation, Unilever may need to, at a minimum, cap its dividend growth to demonstrate the company’s ability and commitment to paying down debt to levels more consistent for an A-band rated company.
With a payout ratio near 70%, which is already about 10% higher than peers such as Procter & Gamble, Unilever would need to strike a delicate balance between divesting profitable food businesses while maintaining adequate coverage for its dividend and deleveraging needs.
Source: Simply Safe Dividends
If Unilever does reach an agreement to acquire GSK, which seems less likely given the market’s reaction, we believe management would attempt to maintain the current dividend level as it represents one of the company’s few remaining options to maintain credibility.
However, given the company would have elevated leverage and a potentially tighter payout ratio following food-product divestitures, we would likely downgrade Unilever’s Dividend Safety Score to Borderline Safe.
That said, the uncertainty tied to the failed GSK bid, at this point, is purely speculative. While the aggressive offer does invite concern, the adverse reaction by investors and the media may inspire management to temper future bids.
Moving forward, Unilever’s conservative balance sheet and reliable cash flow stream provide a solid foundation to both grow acquisitively (within reason) and keep the dividend intact. Given this solid financial footing, we are reaffirming Unilever’s Safe Dividend Safety Score.
Even so, investors should expect more news and rumors with resulting stock price volatility over the next year or two as Unilever attempts to strengthen its product portfolio. Although it’s unclear what will unfold, management seems determined to grow acquisitively.
We will continue to monitor strategic shifts made by Unilever and provide updates on any material transaction that could disrupt the dividend, which has been paid without interruption since 1966.
Note: Around the time our article was published, Unilever issued a statement saying it will not raise its bid for GSK. This development does not change our view on the company’s strategy. However, it adds more confidence that the dividend remains safe.