Value Line

Puesto que no hay un tema dedicado del Value Line empiezo yo uno. Podéis acceder a través de suscripción o a través de alguna biblioteca americana como la de Santa Mónica:

Además de los típicos screeners y reports de las compañías, hay varías cosas interesantes. Una es el índice de acciones (Index to Stocks), donde nos da una lista de las acciones con sus rankings de timeliness, safety, etc… Además nos da el ranking de “Industries” ordenados por timeliness. Al parecer hay una “anomalia” llamada el Value Line Enigma(*) que dice que las acciones con mejor timeliness en las industrias con mejor timeliness lo hacen mejor que las peor puntuadas.

Otra cosa interesante son los portfolios modelo de VL. Están clasificados del I al IV:

  • Portfolio I: Stocks with above-average year-ahead Price Appreciation
  • Portfolio II: Stocks For Income And Potential Price Appreciation
  • Portfolio III: Stocks with long-term Price growth Potential
  • Portfolio IV: Stocks with above-average dividend yield

Si no me equivoco, creo que lo van actualizando todo cada semana. Por si nunca lo habíais usado o por si no sabíais ni que existía simplemente teneis que hacer click en “Summary & Index” y en “Selection & Opinion”:

Os dejo pantallazo de los portfolios II y IV que son los más orientados a los dividendos:

¿Alguno usa estos portfolio modelo? ¿Sabéis si han dado buen resultado en el pasado? En mi opinión los de VL “se mojan” más que M* y creo (opinión subjetiva) que se equivocan menos.

*Creo haberlo leído en algún libro viejuno de bolsa de los que yo me descargo de library genesis. He podido encontrar este paper, pero ignoro si el inversor particular puede si quiera sacar ventaja de esta anomalia:

Zhang, Y., Nguyen, G.X., Le, S.V., 2010. Yes, the value line enigma is still alive: evidence from online timeliness rank changes. Financial Review 45, 355–373.

11 Likes

Madre mía, muchas gracias Marcos. No sé de dónde voy a sacar tiempo para tanto, la verdad es que últimamente apenas puedo echar un ojo a una cuarta parte de todo lo que ponéis.
Este finde daré un vistazo a estos portfolios y poco más.
Un saludo

1 Like

Particularmente prefiero M* y lo he seguido más porque me parece bastante más amigable todo.
Value Line me parece un tsunami de información y mucho menos friendly.
No podría decirte si el trackrecord de una mejora a la otra, la verdad… Pero cuando indago en una empresa (sin coger la CQSS a pies juntillas) suelo revisar tanto M* como Value Line y en la mayor parte de los casos suelen ir bastante en línea.

¿Por qué has llegado a la conclusión de que VL se moja más que M*, @Marcos_Torcal_Garcia?
A mi justo me había parecido lo contrario. Creo que en los informes de analistas de M* son super detallados y extensos con las empresas. Los de Value Line son un par de párrafos y ya.

Simplemente es una apreciación subjetiva. En VL te dan un precio objetivo a corto (18 meses) y un rango a largo (3-5 años). M* da su fair value que viene a ser el valor intrínseco de la acción. En ese sentido creo VL se moja más.

M* me encanta, creo que son muy transparentes se puede ver la evolución del FV y qué es lo que dijeron en el pasado. De VL me gusta más la brevedad, como van al grano y sus rankings. Ambas se complementan muy bien la verdad. Y teniendo acceso a las dos pues creo que hay que aprovecharlo.

Me da la sensación de que en USA VL goza de una mejor reputación (quizá por llevar muchos más años), por lo que leo en foros. Por supuesto, M* también goza de una gran reputación.

Yo era más de M*, pero ahora uso ambas por igual. El hilo de M* es bastante activo en este foro, mientras que de VL casi no se comenta nada, cosa que me parecía curiosa, y por eso me parecía interesante abrir uno.

7 Likes

This week, we screened the Value Line database for stocks that should provide a worthwhile total return on a risk-adjusted basis. First, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of 2 (Above Average), or better. By definition, these are stocks that, in our opinion, have less than normal total risk.
Then, we required price appreciation potential to 2024-2026 of at least 35%, compared with the current median of 30%, which should still provide an opportunity for respectable, risk-adjusted capital gains over the longer term. Next, we specified that the remaining equities must have a current dividend yield of at least 2.2%, 50 basis points higher than the 1.7% median yield for the Value Line universe. We further limited the selection to stocks with projected three- to five-year average annual dividend growth of at least 5.0%. To tie the growth and income criteria together, we required an average annual total return over the next three to five years of at least 10%. We note that our requirement for average annual total return is quite favorable, given what is currently available on low-risk assets. For reference, we also present the projected average annual earnings growth over the three- to five-year pull for companies that survived this screening.
Of course, the high investment quality implied by the above criteria suggests limited opportunities for a combination of good dividend yield and worthwhile three- to five-year price gains. Indeed, the resulting roster is a relatively small group of stocks that appears suitable for patient investors who seek total returns, but are also averse to excess risk.
We advise investors to use this screen, and all others presented in Selection & Opinion, as a starting point for investigating stocks that meet specific investment criteria. We suggest that a point for further investigation would begin by consulting the latest Ratings & Reports page for those stocks of interest.

5 Likes

¿Solo esas pocas?

In this screen, we turned our attention to low-risk stocks that have good records for dividend growth. In addition, our selection criteria focused on those issues that our analysts project to continue providing investors with dividends that are likely to increase at above-average rates.

We began our search with stocks whose dividends have advanced at a compound annual rate of at least 6% over the last five years. Next, we narrowed the list to equities with projected annual dividend growth rates of at least 6% over the next three to five years. We also set a minimum estimated yield for the year ahead of 2.7%, which is 100 basis points (100 basis points is equivalent to one percentage point) higher than the current median of 1.7% for all dividend-paying stocks under our review. For comparative purposes, we also show payout ratios (all dividends as a percentage of net profit) for the most recent fiscal year.

We then restricted our search to stocks with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average), and Financial Strength Ratings of B++ or better (B+ is Average). Companies whose shares earn high marks for these metrics generally will fare better in volatile markets than the typical stock under our review. That said, their low-risk profile may cause them to underperform in a rising market.
The set of stocks that made the final cut are not only judged to be safer than most, but also possess proven and prospective dividend growth rates that should continue to advance nicely under the time periods chosen under this review. Consistent with some of our recent screens, this roster includes a much wider range of equities, with bank and utility stocks accounting for just three of the 12 equities found in our list this time around. We advise investors to carefully review both the full-page and supplementary analyses in our Ratings & Reports before making commitments to any of the stocks on the list below, keeping in mind the economic challenges that lie ahead.

Dejo aquí el enlace con la lista de compañías incluyendo los ratios de M*.

9 Likes

Muchas gracias Marcos.

1 Like

This screen focuses on stocks with good current dividend yields that have favorable prospects for relative price performance over the next three to five years. This combination should result in a group of stocks with worthwhile total return potential.

In the first steps of the selection process, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average). Next, we pared our universe with respect to income generation. We selected issues with current dividend yields of at least 2.5%, 70 basis points (0.7%) above the current median of 1.8% for all dividend-paying stocks under Value Line’s review. We then required that equities with three- to five-year projected price appreciation of less than 45% be cast aside (the current median is 35%). From this group, we selected issues with a projected average annual total return to 2024-2026 (price gains plus dividends) of at least 10%.

Conservative investors seeking good current income, along with worthwhile, risk-adjusted three- to five-year total return potential, may find these equities of interest. That said, this roster includes stocks from a range of industries, so further research is most likely warranted. To this point, economic growth may be uneven in the quarters ahead, as inflationary pressures and disruptive supply chains take a toll. Accordingly, we encourage subscribers to take this into consideration when contemplating a new commitment here.

No he podido correr el screener tal cual dice VL, os dejo la selección de acciones que en teoría cumplen los mismos criterios; he resaltado en amarillo las de la tabla del Value Line:

4 Likes

In this screen, we turned our attention to low-risk stocks that have good records for dividend growth. In addition, our selection criteria focused on those issues that our analysts project to continue providing investors with dividends that are likely to increase at above-average rates.

We began our search with stocks whose dividends have advanced at a compound annual rate of at least 7% over the last five years. Next, we narrowed the list to equities with projected annual dividend growth rates of at least 6% over the next three to five years. We also set a minimum estimated yield for the year ahead of 2.5%, which is 70 basis points (100 basis points is equivalent to one percentage point) higher than the current median of 1.8% for all dividend-paying stocks under our review. For comparative purposes, we also show payout ratios (all dividends as a percentage of net profit) for the most recent fiscal year.

We then restricted our search to stocks with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average), and Financial Strength Ratings of B++ or better (B+ is Average). Companies whose shares earn high marks for these metrics generally will fare better in volatile markets than the typical stock under our review. That said, their low-risk profile may cause them to underperform in a rising market.

The set of stocks that made the final cut are not only judged to be safer than most, but also possess proven and prospective dividend growth rates that should continue to advance nicely under the time periods chosen under this review. Differing from our recent screens, this roster includes a wider range of equities, with bank and utility stocks accounting for just four of the 14 stocks found in our list this time around. We advise investors to carefully review both the full-page and supplementary analyses in our Ratings & Reports before making commitments to any of the stocks on the list below, keeping in mind the economic challenges that lie ahead.

He corrido el screener y estas son las que salen:

3 Likes

This screen focuses on stocks with good current dividend yields that have favorable prospects for relative price performance over the next three to five years. This combination should result in a group of stocks with worthwhile total return potential.

In the first steps of the selection process, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average). Next, we pared our universe with respect to income generation. We selected issues with current dividend yields of at least 2.5%, 60 basis points (0.6%) above the current median of 1.9% for all dividendpaying stocks under Value Line’s review. We then required that equities with three- to five-year projected price appreciation of less than 45% be cast aside (the current median is 50%). From this group, we selected issues with a projected average annual total return to 2025-2027 (price gains plus dividends) of at least 12%.

Conservative investors seeking good current income, along with worthwhile, risk-adjusted three- to five-year total return potential, may find these equities of interest. That said, this roster includes stocks from a range of industries, so further research is most likely warranted. To this point, economic growth may be uneven in the quarters ahead, as inflationary pressures and disruptive supply chains take a toll. Accordingly, we encourage subscribers to take this into consideration when contemplating a new commitment here.

6 Likes

This week, we screened the Value Line database for stocks that should provide a worthwhile total return on a risk-adjusted basis. First, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of 2 (Above Average), or better. By definition, these are stocks that, in our opinion, have less than normal total risk.

Then, we required price appreciation potential to 2025-2027 of at least 45%, compared with the current median of 50%, which should still provide an opportunity for respectable, risk-adjusted capital gains over the longer term. Next, we specified that the remaining equities must have a current dividend yield of at least 2.4%, 50 basis points higher than the 1.9% median yield for the Value Line universe. We further limited the selection to stocks with projected three- to five-year average annual dividend growth of at least 5.0%. To tie the growth and income criteria together, we required an average annual total return over the next three to five years of at least 12%. We note that our requirement for average annual total return is quite favorable, given what is currently available on low risk assets. For reference, we also present the projected average annual earnings growth over the three- to five-year pull for companies that survived this screening.

Of course, the high investment quality implied by the above criteria suggests limited opportunities for a combination of good dividend yield and worthwhile three- to five-year price gains. Indeed, the resulting roster is a relatively small group of stocks that appears suitable for patient investors who seek total returns, but are also averse to excess risk.

We advise investors to use this screen, and all others presented in Selection & Opinion, as a starting point for investigating stocks that meet specific investment criteria. We suggest that a point for further investigation would begin by consulting the latest Ratings & Reports page for those stocks of interest.

7 Likes

In this screen, we turned our attention to low-risk stocks that have good records for dividend growth. In addition, our selection criteria focused on those issues that our analysts project to continue providing investors with dividends that are likely to increase at above-average rates.

We began our search with stocks whose dividends have advanced at a compound annual rate of at least 8% over the last five years. Next, we narrowed the list to equities with projected annual dividend growth rates of at least 6% over the next three to five years. We also set a minimum estimated yield for the year ahead of 2.7%, which is 70 basis points (100 basis points is equivalent to one percentage point) higher than the current median of 2.0% for all dividend-paying stocks under our review. For comparative purposes, we also show payout ratios (all dividends as a percentage of net profit) for the most recent fiscal year.

We then restricted our search to stocks with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average), and Financial Strength Ratings of B++ or better (B+ is Average). Companies whose shares earn high marks for these metrics generally will fare better in volatile markets than the typical stock under our review. That said, their low-risk profile may cause them to underperform in a rising market.

The set of stocks that made the final cut are not only judged to be safer than most, but also possess proven and prospective dividend growth rates that should continue to advance nicely under the time periods chosen under this review. Consistent with our recent screens, this roster includes a much wider range of equities, in the sense that just two stocks from the bank and utility industries are found in our list this time around. We advise investors to carefully review both the full-page and supplementary analyses in our Ratings & Reports before making commitments to any of the stocks on the list below, keeping in mind the economic challenges that lie ahead.

7 Likes

This screen focuses on stocks with good current dividend yields that have favorable prospects for relative price performance over the next three to five years. This combination should result in a group of stocks with worthwhile total return potential.

In the first steps of the selection process, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average). Next, we pared our universe with respect to income generation. We selected issues with current dividend yields of at least 2.5%, 50 basis points (0.5%) above the current median of 2.0%
for all dividend-paying stocks under Value Line’s review. We then required that equities with three- to five-year projected price appreciation of less than 60% be cast aside (the current median is 60%). From this group, we selected issues with a projected average annual total return to 2025-2027 (price gains plus dividends) of at least 15%.

Conservative investors seeking good current income, along with worthwhile, risk-adjusted three- to five-year total return potential, may find these equities of interest. That said, this roster includes stocks from a range of industries, so further research is most likely warranted. To this point, economic growth may be uneven in the quarters ahead, as inflationary pressures and disruptive supply chains take a toll. Accordingly, we encourage subscribers to take this into consideration when contemplating a new commitment here.

VL list

6 Likes

In this screen, we turned our attention to low-risk stocks that have good records for dividend growth. In addition, our selection criteria focused on those issues that our analysts project to continue providing investors with dividends that are likely to increase at above-average rates.

We began our search with stocks whose dividends have advanced at a compound annual rate of at least 8% over the last five years. Next, we narrowed the list to equities with projected annual dividend
growth rates of at least 8% over the next three to five years. We also set a minimum estimated yield for the year ahead of 2.4%, which is 50 basis points (100 basis points is equivalent to one percentage point) higher than the current median of 1.9% for all dividend-paying stocks under our review. For comparative purposes, we also show payout ratios (all dividends as a percentage of net profit) for the most recent fiscal year.

We then restricted our search to stocks with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average), and Financial Strength Ratings of B++ or better (B+ is Average). Companies whose shares earn high marks for these metrics generally will fare better in volatile markets than the typical stock under our review. That said, their low-risk profile may cause them to underperform in a rising market.

The set of stocks that made the final cut are not only judged to be safer than most, but also possess proven and prospective dividend growth rates that should continue to advance nicely over the time period chosen for this review. Consistent with our recent screens, this roster includes a much wider range of equities, in the sense that only two stocks from either the bank or utility industries are found in our list this time around. We advise investors to carefully review both the full-page and supplementary analyses in our Ratings & Reports before making commitments to any of the stocks on the list below, keeping in mind the economic challenges that lie ahead.

5 Likes

This screen focuses on stocks with good current dividend yields that have favorable prospects for relative price performance over the next three to five years. This combination should result in a group of stocks with worthwhile total return potential.

In the first steps of the selection process, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average). Next, we pared our universe with respect to income generation. We selected issues with current dividend yields of at least 2.6%, 60 basis points (0.6%) above the current median of 2.0% for all dividend-paying stocks under Value Line’s review. We then required that equities with three- to fiveyear projected price appreciation of less than 55% be cast aside (the current median is 55%). From this group, we selected issues with a projected average annual total return to 2025-2027 (price gains plus dividends) of at least 14%.

Conservative investors seeking good current income, along with worthwhile, risk-adjusted three- to five-year total return potential, may find these equities of interest. That said, this roster includes stocks from a range of industries, so further research is most likely warranted. To this point, economic growth may be uneven in the quarters ahead, as inflationary pressures and disruptive supply chains take a toll. Accordingly, we encourage subscribers to take this into consideration when contemplating a new commitment here.

5 Likes

This screen focuses on stocks with good current dividend yields that have favorable prospects for relative price performance over the next three to five years. This combination should result in a group of stocks with worthwhile total return potential.

In the first steps of the selection process, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average). Next, we pared our universe with respect to income generation. We selected issues with current dividend yields of at least 2.6%, 50 basis points (0.5%) above the current median of 2.1% for all dividend-paying stocks under Value Line’s review. We then required that equities with three- to five year projected price appreciation of less than 70% be cast aside (the current median is 70%). From this group, we selected issues with a projected average annual total return to 2025-2027 (price gains plus dividends) of at least 16%.

Conservative investors seeking good current income, along with worthwhile, risk-adjusted three- to five-year total return potential, may find these equities of interest. That said, this roster includes stocks from a range of industries, so further research is most likely warranted. To this point, economic growth may be uneven in the quarters ahead, as inflationary pressures and disruptive supply chains take a toll. Accordingly, we encourage subscribers to take this into consideration when contemplating a new commitment here.

3 Likes

This screen focuses on stocks with good current dividend yields that have favorable prospects for relative price performance over the next three to five years. This combination should result in a group of stocks with worthwhile total return potential.

In the first steps of the selection process, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average). Next, we pared our universe with respect to income generation. We selected issues with current dividend yields of at least 3.3%, 100 basis points (1.0%) above the current median of 2.3% for all dividendpaying stocks under Value Line’s review. We then required that equities with three- to five-year projected price appreciation of
less than 80% be cast aside (the current median is 80%). From this group, we selected issues with a projected average annual total return to 2025-2027 (price gains plus dividends) of at least 18%.

Conservative investors seeking good current income, along with worthwhile, risk-adjusted three- to five-year total return potential, may find these equities of interest. That said, this roster includes stocks from a range of industries, so further research is most likely warranted. To this point, economic growth may be uneven in the quarters ahead, as inflationary pressures and disruptive supply chains take a toll. Accordingly, we encourage subscribers to take this into consideration when contemplating a new commitment here.

10 Likes

In this screen, we turned our attention to low-risk stocks that have good records for dividend growth. In addition, our selection criteria focused on those issues that our analysts project to continue providing investors with dividends that are likely to increase at above-average rates.

We began our search with stocks whose dividends have advanced at a compound annual rate of at least 8% over the last five years. Next, we narrowed the list to equities with projected annual dividend growth rates of at least 8% over the next three to five years. We also set a minimum estimated yield for the year ahead of 2.7%, which is 50 basis points (100 basis points is equivalent to one percentage point) higher than the current median of 2.2% for all dividend-paying stocks under our review. For comparative purposes, we also show payout ratios (all dividends as a percentage of net profit) for the most recent fiscal year.

We then restricted our search to stocks with Safety ranks of at least 2 (Above Average), and Financial Strength Ratings of B++ or better (B+ is Average). Companies whose shares earn high marks for these metrics generally will fare better in volatile markets than the typical stock under our review. That said, their low-risk profile may cause them to underperform in a rising market.

The stocks that made the final cut are not only judged to be safer than most, but also possess proven and prospective dividend growth rates that should continue to advance nicely over the time period chosen for this review. Consistent with our recent screens, this roster includes a fairly wide range of equities, in the sense that only one stock from either the bank or utility industries is found in our list this time around. We advise investors to carefully review both the full-page and supplementary analyses in our Ratings & Reports before making commitments to any of the stocks on the list below, keeping in mind the economic challenges that lie ahead.

3 Likes

This week, we screened the Value Line database for stocks that should provide a worthwhile total return on a risk-adjusted basis. First, we limited the field to equities with Safety ranks of 2 (Above Average), or better. By definition, these are stocks that, in our opinion, have less than normal total risk.

Then, we required price appreciation potential to 2025-2027 of at least 70%, compared with the current median of 70%, which should still provide an opportunity for respectable, risk-adjusted capital gains over the longer term. Next, we specified that the remaining equities must have a current dividend yield of at least 2.5%, 30 basis points higher than the 2.2% median yield for the Value Line universe. We further limited the selection to stocks with projected three- to five-year average annual dividend growth of at least 5.0%. To tie the growth and income criteria together, we required an average annual total return over the next three to five years of at least 15%. We note that our requirement for average annual total return is quite favorable, given what is currently available on low-risk assets. For reference, we also present the projected average annual earnings growth over the three- to five-year pull for companies that survived this screening.

Of course, the high investment quality implied by the above criteria suggests limited opportunities for a combination of good dividend yield and worthwhile three- to five-year price gains. Indeed, the resulting roster is a relatively small group of stocks that appears suitable for patient investors who seek total returns, but are also averse to excess risk.

We advise investors to use this screen, and all others presented in Selection & Opinion, as a starting point for investigating stocks that meet specific investment criteria. We suggest that a point for further investigation would begin by consulting the latest Ratings & Reports page for those stocks of interest.

8 Likes