Intel (INTC)

Encadena una noticia mala tras otra … Como se cuantifica lo del problema temporal? Más que nada porque para mi es diferente a lo de que un negocio siga una clara tendencia bajista y cada noticia sea una palada de tierra encima.

Igual el precio crea la narrativa, pero no sé…

Por lo que he podido leer, parece que Intel tiene un plan. De momento, parece que no queda otra que seguir los resultados a medio-largo plazo antes que volvernos locos con las noticias a corto.

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Intel’s Turnaround Plan Carries Risk But Dividend Continues to Look Sustainable

3.12%

96 Very Safe → 80 Safe

Downgraded Feb 23, 2022

Intel on February 17 hosted an analyst day to provide more details on its turnaround strategy, which seeks to restore the chip maker’s technological leadership position while also building a foundry business to manufacture semiconductors for others.

Expanding existing production and constructing new fabs, or chip factories, will require substantial capital investment. For example, Intel expects to spend $40 billion to build four fabs in Arizona and Ohio. Billions more will be spent on equipping current sites with advanced manufacturing technologies.

In total, Intel’s capital expenditures over the next few years are projected to average around $27 billion annually, or nearly double the firm’s historical norm. R&D spending will jump, too.

During this period of heavy investment, free cash flow will evaporate. Management expects negative free cash flow of $1 billion to $2 billion in 2022, down from an average of $15 billion in recent years and well short of Intel’s $6 billion annual dividend.

Despite facing a cash flow deficit, Intel stated it remains “committed to a healthy and growing dividend,” which has been paid without interruption since 1992 and was raised 5% last month.

Management’s commitment to the payout is backed by Intel’s low leverage, A+ credit rating, and nearly $30 billion of cash and investments on the balance sheet, providing ample liquidity.

We expect Intel’s dividend to remain secure, but in recognition of the turnaround plan’s steep costs and weak dividend coverage expected over the medium term, we are downgrading the company’s Dividend Safety Score from Very Safe to Safe.

While the dividend should keep rolling in, investors must wait several years to see if Intel’s capital splurge pays off. If all goes well, the company anticipates revenue growth increasing from a low single-digit pace this year to 10% to 12% by 2026.

Growth is expected to be fueled by emerging opportunities outside of Intel’s legacy focus on PCs and data centers, including automotive, graphics cards, networking, the Internet of Things, and a ramping foundry business.

By 2026, Intel expects its capital intensity to moderate and margins to rise, returning the company to its cash cow status with a well-covered dividend and stronger underlying growth.

Intel’s plan has been met with skepticism following the firm’s numerous missteps over the past decade, which include missing out on the smartphone wave and losing its lead in process technology to foundry rival TSMC for the first time in the company’s history.

Intel’s manufacturing delays in recent years have caused its processors to fall a step behind those designed by rivals such as AMD and Nvidia, which outsource their manufacturing to TSMC’s leading-edge fabs in order to make smaller but more efficient chips.

As a result, Intel’s dominant grip on processors and chipsets used in PCs and servers has begun to loosen. Intel still enjoys a strong position, as seen in the server shipments market share chart below, but the firm must catch up with TSMC’s process improvements in the years ahead to protect both its market share and premium margins.

Source: TomsHardware.com

Intel’s efforts to jump back to the leading edge and build a foundry business come at a significant cost, and there are never any guarantees that technology advancements will play out as management expects.

As we discussed in our October 2020 note, we generally prefer to own businesses with more stable competitive advantages and clearer paths to long-term growth.

That said, income investors can take comfort in knowing that Intel has the financial resources to support its dividend while embarking on its turnaround. And with the stock trading at around 8x last year’s earnings, expectations appear low. CEO Pat Gelsinger’s goal to double Intel’s multiple may not be all that crazy:

“I want to double the earnings of this company and double the multiple of this company as you build confidence in what we’re doing, a 4x increase in total shareholder value. The Intel turnaround train is leaving the station, and I hope you all get on board.”

However, anyone considering owning the stock should understand this will be a multiyear process with no quick fixes or guarantees of success as Intel battles from an unfamiliar position of runner-up in semiconductor manufacturing processes.

We will continue monitoring Intel’s turnaround and provide updates as needed.

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Está subiendo un poco con el rumor…

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Ostras si ha subido! Estoy empezando a invertir este año y a ver si no me quedo a medias :frowning:

Gelsinger, who joined Intel from VMware in February 2021, earned $178.59 million in compensation, which includes stock awards. In contrast, the median Intel employee made $104,400, the filing said.

Included in the $178.59 million was a one-time equity award worth roughly $110 million.

A significant portion of Gelsinger’s compensation vest between three and five years down the line and are dependent upon a rise in Intel’s share price. If Intel shares triple over the next five years, he would receive roughly $45 million of the compensation, while other targets are needed for Gelsinger to receive the additional compensation.

If the targets are not met, Gelsinger’s compensation drops to $28 million, as noted in the filing.

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28M$ por no conseguir el objetivo? Madre mia😅

No parece mucho

Diseñar chips tampoco parece sencillo

¿Solo pagan bien los monopolios?

Habrá también mucho asalariado “non-tech”

We are a global company with more than 54% of our employees located outside the US and significant manufacturing operations. As a result, our employee population is different than that of other companies.

Our median employee works in Malaysia as a full-time program manager, which is a non-technology position

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A Intel le siguen comiendo terreno :sweat_smile:

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Por algo hemos comprado lo que hemos comprado. Hay que tener fe…

Los problemas de Intel no han desaparecido

Los accionistas de Intel se han acostumbrado al desempeño decepcionante. Durante años, Intel ha tenido repetidos retrasos en la transición a las últimas tecnologías de fabricación de chips, lo que ha permitido a competidores como Advanced Micro Devices AMD –3.04% y AAPL para superar al gigante de los chips en la fabricación de chips de mayor rendimiento y mayor eficiencia energética…

Ahora, parece inevitable que Intel no cumpla con sus pronósticos debido a las suposiciones demasiado optimistas del mercado. En abril, la firma de investigación IDC dijo que los envíos mundiales de computadoras personales cayeron un 5% año tras año durante el trimestre de marzo como resultado de la disminución de la demanda de los consumidores, junto con los desafíos de la cadena de suministro…

Para Intel, la debilidad de la industria se ve exacerbada por el hecho de que la empresa está perdiendo cuota de mercado frente a sus rivales…

Sin duda, las acciones de Intel no son caras. El fabricante de chips cotiza a un precio razonable de 12 veces la estimación de consenso de ganancias por acción de Wall Street para este año. Pero la valoración solo es precisa si la empresa puede cumplir con esa estimación. Wall Street actualmente pronostica que Intel generará $ 3,49 por acción en 2022. La compañía ha pronosticado un BPA de $ 3,60…

Dadas las demoras de sus productos, un entorno macro que se deteriora rápidamente y las crecientes amenazas competitivas de AMD y Apple, Intel podría perder la marca por una cantidad significativa…

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Estoy de acuerdo, pero intel yo la veo como una empresa sistemica. Y con ello me refiero que tiene el soporte incondicional del gobierno americano, y solo por infraestructuras, instituciones y defensa ya vende y factura mogollón.
Intel es la unica grande con poder de fabricación, que diseña y fabrica en los eeuu, no me imagino cohetes de la nasa o misiles de defensa con chips chinos, coreanos ni de taiwan la verdad…
Intel es mucho mas que chips. La tecnología desarrollada con sus patentes tiene un gran porvenir. Solo lo que dedica al i+d es superior a la facturación de algunas empresas del sector.
Tiempo al tiempo…

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Hagan sus propuestas señores. A continuación lo hacen

Intel debería recortar su dividendo. El futuro del fabricante de chips puede depender de ello.

Bajo la dirección ejecutiva Pat Gelsinger , Intel INTC –1,30% se ha comprometido a aumentar masivamente sus inversiones de gastos de capital en decenas de miles de millones de dólares. Pero con una economía global que se desacelera rápidamente, retrasos repetidos de productos , amenazas competitivas crecientes e incertidumbre política, es posible que necesite más ayuda para financiar sus ambiciones.

Un buen lugar para encontrarlo sería el generoso pago de dividendos de Intel (ticker: INTC). Si bien el fabricante de chips ha pagado un dividendo constante durante tres décadas seguidas, debe hacer lo que sea necesario para apuntalar su futuro, incluido el recorte de su dividendo…

Por ahora, Intel necesita aceptar su precaria realidad y utilizar todos los recursos financieros a su disposición en lugar de recortar gastos. Eso significa que el dividendo de Intel debería terminar. Es el movimiento prudente y correcto.

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