Y que todavia haya gente que pueda apoyar a este tipo…Vale que si eres americano pudiese tener un pase, que tampoco, pero el castigo que esta infligiendo al mundo no tiene perdon.
Y esto ya no va de derechas o de izquierdas…
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Pero tienes que ver el video, mira que no es a favor de él. Es un análisis y el final dice por qué seguro que no funciona.
Si afecta a la base… a ver que pasa.
No era por el video ni por ti…es en general. Veo a gente tratando de justificarlo…que si tiene un plan que si tal y cual…mientras tanto jodiendo a medio mundo y parte del otro…Aqui en España politicos tratando de sacar tajada…puta tristeza de mundo.
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Ah si si. Aunque no lo sepan son todos kirchneristas.
Y te doy toda la razon pero la explicacion que le encuentro es sencilla:
El wokismo extremo de los huevos que nos hecho y estan haciendonos tragar tiene que salir por algun lado y claro…
S2
Os dejo aquí este paper que me ha parecido interesantisimo al haber sido publicado por Stephen Miran en Noviembre del 2024. Miran es el director de asuntos económicos de Trump.
Lo que está haciendo Trump ahora sigue el guión de lo que publicó Miran unos meses antes y nos da pistas de lo qué vendrá después. Y dicho sea de paso no es ninguna locura pasajera, es un plan bien estudiado.
Resumen del documento por obra y gracia de Grok:
Summary of “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System” by Stephen Miran (November 2024)
This document, authored by Stephen Miran, former Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, explores potential reforms to the global trading and financial systems, with a focus on addressing economic imbalances driven by the overvaluation of the U.S. dollar. Written in the context of President Trump’s reelection and his long-standing advocacy for fairer trade terms, the essay is not policy advocacy but a detailed analysis of tools, tradeoffs, and financial market consequences of significant trade or currency policy changes.
Key Points:
- Root Cause of Imbalances: Dollar Overvaluation
- The persistent overvaluation of the U.S. dollar, driven by inelastic global demand for dollar-denominated reserve assets (e.g., U.S. Treasury securities), creates trade imbalances. This overvaluation makes U.S. exports less competitive, harms manufacturing, and contributes to job losses, particularly in communities affected by trade shocks like the “China shock” (600,000–2 million manufacturing jobs lost from 2000–2011).
- The “Triffin dilemma” explains this dynamic: as the provider of global reserve assets, the U.S. must run persistent current account deficits to supply dollars, which exacerbates trade imbalances as global GDP grows and the U.S. share of it shrinks (from 40% in the 1960s to 26% today).
- Economic and Security Implications
- Dollar overvaluation undermines U.S. manufacturing and industrial capacity, which is increasingly critical for national security amid rising geopolitical tensions with China and Russia. A weakened industrial base limits the ability to produce defense equipment and exposes vulnerabilities to espionage and supply chain disruptions.
- The U.S. benefits from reserve currency status through cheaper borrowing and financial extraterritoriality (e.g., sanctions power), but these come at the cost of an overvalued currency that erodes export competitiveness. The tradeoff pits economic competitiveness against geopolitical influence.
- Policy Tools for Reform Miran catalogs two primary tools to address these imbalances: tariffs and currency policy, each with distinct mechanisms and tradeoffs.a. Tariffs
- Purpose: Tariffs raise revenue, improve trade fairness, and enhance negotiating leverage. They can be implemented unilaterally or multilaterally and are likely to be intertwined with national security concerns.
- Mechanics and Tradeoffs:
- Currency Offset: If foreign currencies depreciate to offset tariffs (as seen in 2018–2019 with China), inflationary impacts in the U.S. are minimal, and the tariffed nation bears the cost through reduced purchasing power. However, this limits trade rebalancing.
- No Currency Offset: Without offset, U.S. consumers face higher prices, but trade flows may rebalance as imports become costlier, though revenue collection diminishes over time.
- 2018–2019 Experience: Tariffs on China raised the effective tariff rate by 17.9%, but the renminbi’s 13.7% depreciation offset most inflationary effects, resulting in negligible macroeconomic impact and significant revenue.
- Implementation: Tariffs could be graduated based on countries’ willingness to share the burden of reserve asset provision or defense commitments. Optimal tariff rates (around 20% per economic models) could enhance welfare by correcting trade distortions, but retaliation risks escalating costs.
- Market Impact: Currency offset may increase financial market volatility (e.g., a large renminbi devaluation could destabilize China’s debt-heavy economy), but gradual implementation and deregulation could mitigate domestic economic disruptions.b. Currency Policy
- Purpose: Addressing the undervaluation of foreign currencies to reduce dollar overvaluation, thereby boosting U.S. export competitiveness and manufacturing.
- Multilateral Approaches:
- Historical accords like the Plaza Accord (1985) coordinated dollar weakening with allies. A modern “Mar-a-Lago Accord” could involve trading partners selling dollar reserves to strengthen their currencies, paired with terming out U.S. debt holdings into long-duration bonds (e.g., century bonds) to stabilize yields.
- Challenges include persuading partners like China and Europe, who face weak growth and may resist revaluing their currencies. Tariffs could provide leverage to secure such agreements.
- Unilateral Approaches:
- IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act): The U.S. could impose a user fee on foreign official holders of Treasury securities to discourage reserve accumulation, effectively taxing the burden imposed on U.S. exports. Gradual implementation and differentiation by country (allies vs. adversaries) could limit volatility.
- Reserve Accumulation: The U.S. could buy foreign currencies using the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund or the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account. However, this risks inflation, negative carry (U.S. yields exceed foreign yields), and exposure to foreign debt risks.
- Risks: Currency devaluation could deter foreign investment in U.S. assets, raise yields, and increase inflation (e.g., a 20% dollar depreciation could boost CPI by 60–100 basis points). Coordination with the Federal Reserve or trading partners is critical to manage volatility.
- Market and Volatility Considerations
- Sequencing: Tariffs are likely to precede currency policy due to Trump’s familiarity with them, their revenue potential, and lower immediate risks. Tariffs may strengthen the dollar initially, with currency adjustments following if inflation and deficits are controlled.
- Mitigating Volatility: Gradualism, Federal Reserve cooperation (e.g., capping yields), and supply-side policies (deregulation, energy abundance) can reduce adverse market impacts. A multilateral currency accord with debt term-out could lower yields and the dollar simultaneously.
- Broader Implications:
- Clearer distinctions between allies and adversaries, with favorable trade terms for those sharing defense and economic burdens.
- Increased currency market volatility and risk premia for assets in countries outside the U.S. security umbrella.
- Intensified efforts to find dollar alternatives (e.g., gold, cryptocurrencies), though structural barriers limit their viability.
- Conclusion
- The Trump Administration has a range of tools to reshape the global trading system to benefit U.S. manufacturing and competitiveness, countering the burdens of dollar overvaluation and reserve currency status.
- While Wall Street may underestimate unilateral options, careful planning and execution are essential to navigate the narrow path to success without triggering significant economic or market volatility.
- Tariffs are likely the first step, leveraging revenue and negotiation power, potentially followed by currency adjustments if risks are mitigated.
The document emphasizes understanding these tools and their consequences for investors, highlighting the interplay of economic policy, national security, and global financial dynamics in a potential overhaul of the international system.
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Esto suena a nuevo Boom de criptos, con víctimas incluidas.
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Aranceles de Trump: La Casa Blanca afirma que los aranceles del 104% a China entrarán en vigor a medianoche
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esta noticia ha tirado el S&P 500 unos 500 puntos…
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Ahí veo varios puntos que no toca.
- La parada del comercio. Esto implicaría que no se gana dinero con los aranceles y se pierden tanto ventas como compras. Junto con los impuestos que genera.
- En el currency offset o no, pone los casos donde los otros paises devalúan su moneda o se queda igual. ¿Y si la que se devalua es la americana?
El coste de traer cosas aumentaría. Eso les bajaría el poder adquisitivo americano y crearía inflación. - Yo no entiendo que tiene de malo tener el control de la moneda de reserva global y ser el tío con la impresora. ¿Por qué quieres darle el control de la moneda global a otro país?
Pido perdón por adelantado por las palabras pero quizá no se expresarlo de otra manera.
Un hijo de puta es un hijodeputa lo diga Agamenon o su porquero.
Podemos buscar las explicaciones que queramos…quizá la mas sencilla es que simplemente es un hijo de puta loco.
Un saludo
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Es que lo quiere todo… sorber y soplar a la vez. Ya ha habido intentos pasados de imponer alternativas al USD como la divisa internacional, sobre todo por parte de china. A día de hoy parece inimaginable, pero quizá si seguimos por esta vía, se empiezan a explorar alternativas al USD seriamente. Esta locura de aranceles tan salvajes y abruptos, de mantenerse, supone un cambio de paradigma en el comercio internacional.
Repito que es difícil de imaginar, pero si seguimos así, antes de creer que todos los países se vayan a plegar a las exigencias del emperador y sus locuras, personalmente me parece mas factible que a nivel comercial el resto del mundo se empiece a reorganizar restando importancia al papel de la economía estadounidense y su moneda, quedándose USA cada vez mas aislada.
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Al final va a ser cierta la conspiranoia de que Trump es un activo reclutado por el Kremlin.
Grok, la IA de X (Twitter), generó controversia al estimar entre 45% y 90% de probabilidad de que Trump sea un activo ruso, basándose en análisis de patrones de comportamiento y datos públicos. Estas respuestas reflejan especulaciones circulantes, no hechos verificados
O podemos hacerle caso a Ockham:
– Muchos expertos y usuarios en plataformas como Reddit descartan la teoría de un agente consciente , sugiriendo en cambio que Rusia lo explotó como idiota útil sin necesidad de reclutamiento formal
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Yo me suelo acoger a la navaja de Hanlon.
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Desde la ignorancia, me da a mí, que el zanahorio no ha investigado a fondo los métodos de persuasión utilizados por la KGB antiguamente y así le va. Le está haciendo el trabajo sucio a machoman y de paso zanahorio se hace rico. Para mí que está comprando (o va a comprar) en este mercado bajista y luego… a reírse del resto.
Le dan mucho crédito al tipo este… no lee. Sinceramente no lo creo.
Vieron el vídeo del otro día en el air force one que le preguntan cómo le el golf?
No tiene desperdicio.
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