Vaya peazo de radiografía acabas de hacer. Al final va a resultar que sí que sabes “algo” de tabaco 
¿Tienes alguna opinión formada sobre cómo evolucionará y cuáles serán los vencedores?
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Me encanta la repuesta Vash, ya que me permite llamar la atención sobre algunos puntos en mi “ramalazo” formativo.
1.- Para mi (se nota que no soy fumador) “vapeo” era todo lo que no suponía llevarte un cigarrillo a la boca y encenderlo con un mechero. Cuando tú hablas de Heat-Not-Burn, de Glo, de iQos, de Pulze, etc… demuestras que te has mirado el sector bastante a fondo y que yo estoy rascando en la superficie. Esa es la diferencia entre conocer una empresa o un sector o simplemente saber que vende cigarrillos.
2.- Si sólo rascas en la superficie sabrás si la empresa que miras está barata o no con los ratios actuales (mirando por el retrovisor) y por tanto estarás condenado a hacer un análisis básico de lo que hoy se puede ver. Pero no podrás hacer una hipótesis razonable sobre qué va a pasar en el futuro (mirar hacia adelante conduciendo).
3.- Creo que he hecho las preguntas correctas a alguien que se conoce el sector. Toco el tema de fondo que puede cambiar el sector (aunque usando un término erróneo al decir “vapeo”) con las nuevas formas de fumar… toco el tema de si esa vía tiene un tope o no (deberíamos añadir la velocidad de cambio)… toco el tema de si el nuevo reparto de cuotas cambiará drásticamente… luego creo que si te has dejado las pestañas (y el dinero) haciéndote ese tipo de preguntas, adquieres una experiencia que luego te permite hacer preguntas correctas.
4.- Las trampas de valor se producen cuando algo que hoy tiene un ratio bajo, mañana lo tiene caro… no porque haya mejorado la valoración, sino porque han caído los resultados. Es algo en lo que hay que pensar mucho cuando ves un ratio bajo. ¿Tiene sentido que el ratio esté bajo?.. porque a menudo la respuesta es que sí tiene sentido.
Dejando lo didáctico y yéndome al sector concreto… creo que es bastante razonable pensar que la transición vaya a ser lenta. Eso de sacar el mechero y quemar sigue siendo atractivo a ojos de mucho… y cuando veo publicidad de “I lika the way you Blue” me parece un tanto ridícula en comparación con las de antes del hombre de Malboro. También creo que en el nuevo segmento las cuotas NO van a ser las actuales y que la guerra que se está librando establecerá un nuevo paradigma en cuotas.
Lo del Brexit, Woodford y el efecto de los indexados lo consideraría más secundario.
Lo de los mentolados lo desconozco, pero me suena que hace 10 años ya lo comentabas. Es cómo la eterna canción en los USA, ¿no?
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How vaping has REVERSED the fall in nicotine use and tobacco giants are cashing in on the surprising trend
- Documents published by British American Tobacco show the emergence of vaping has reversed a decline in nicotine use
- Both BAT and rival Imperial Brands state that vaping is ‘additive’ for their firms
- This indicates that e-cigarettes are helping tobacco firms to boost revenues
The rise of e-cigarettes marketed as a safer alternative for smokers has led to more people getting hooked on nicotine products, research by a major tobacco company has revealed.
Documents published by FTSE 100 giant British American Tobacco show the emergence of vaping and the use of other less harmful tobacco products has reversed a decline in nicotine use.
Between 2007 and 2012, the number of nicotine users in BAT’s top 40 markets outside of the US fell steadily from 366 million to 345 million as millions kicked smoking for health reasons. But its internal data showed the total had climbed to 362 million by 2017.
In documents unearthed by The Mail on Sunday, both BAT and rival Imperial Brands stated that vaping is ‘additive’ for their businesses.
This indicates that e-cigarettes are helping tobacco firms to boost revenues, as opposed to merely replacing lost income from falling cigarette sales.
The resurgence in nicotine use has coincided with the soaring popularity of vaping. A vaping device simulates smoking without burning tobacco.
Instead a liquid containing nicotine is heated electronically, producing a flavoured vapour that the user inhales.
The number of those who vape worldwide increased from about seven million in 2011 to 35 million in 2016, according to researcher Euromonitor.
Other alternatives to cigarettes include devices in which tobacco is heated rather than burned in order to reduce toxins.
According to the independent Royal Society for Public Health, nicotine on its own is no more harmful than caffeine. E-cigarettes are promoted by Public Health England as aids for giving up smoking.
However, BAT’s research found just 18 per cent of those who used its vaping devices were smokers who had quit.
In a briefing to financial analysts late last year, chief executive Nicandro Durante revealed that a study found 5 per cent of vapers had never smoked before, 8 per cent were relapsed smokers and 70 per cent both smoked and vaped.
Concern has also been raised that vaping is becoming increasingly popular among teenagers and other young people, creating a new market for tobacco companies.
The devices have been tried by a quarter of children aged 11 to 15, according to the NHS. Some vaping liquids and devices are marketed using cartoon characters and images of sweets.
Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh and a government adviser on tobacco harm reduction, said it was ‘potentially a good thing’ that there were more options for those who want to quit smoking.
But she added: ‘The main concern about nicotine is that it addicts you to a product that potentially has other stuff in it that is harmful.’
A BAT presentation to investors in March said the total nicotine revenue pool is ‘growing rapidly’ thanks to the rise of cigarette alternatives. It estimates revenues will grow 25 per cent between 2018 and 2023 to around £100 billion across its top 40 markets.
Earlier this month, tobacco firm Imperial Brands said it would abandon its policy of hiking its dividend to shareholders in order to reinvest money into the e-cigarette market.
Chief executive Alison Cooper has said the company’s blu vaping devices are an ‘additive business on top of that of tobacco delivery’.
Imperial Brands has predicted the global vaping market will grow between 300 and 500 per cent by 2025 with ‘limited impact’ on its revenue from cigarettes.
BAT has already seen a significant rise in sales from its non-cigarette lines. The tobacco giant’s so-called ‘Potentially Reduced Risk Products’ business has grown to pull in annual revenues of £2 billion in just three years.
The Mail on Sunday has previously reported that vaping and tobacco heating devices generate higher profit margins than cigarette sales.
The shift towards new products comes as the Government seeks to eradicate smoking in England by 2030.
A spokesman for Imperial Brands said: ‘The risks to smokers’ health are caused by the toxicants released from burning tobacco, not by the naturally occurring nicotine.’
Andrej Kuttruf, board member of the UK Vaping Industry Association, said: 'Vaping is at least 95 per cent less harmful than smoking and you are three times more likely to quit smoking if you vape.
‘Figures from Action on Smoking and Health show that of young people aged 11 to 18 who have never smoked, only 0.8 per cent are current vapers.’
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M*
British American Tobacco reported slightly weaker volume than we had expected for the first half, but strong price/mix and the recent sterling weakness meant that it beat our estimates on both revenue and operating income. We are reiterating our forecasts, wide economic moat rating, and GBP 45 fair value estimate for the ordinary shares. We think there is significant upside to BAT and the tobacco group more broadly, but we recognize that a number of exogenous risks must pass in order for sentiment to improve.
First-half adjusted revenue grew 4.1% year over year, a sequential improvement over 2018, driven by pricing of more than 7%. Volume declined 3.5% year over year, slightly below our forecast due to a sharp 6% decline in the United States, which we believe slightly underperformed the market, and a 2.3% decline in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East region. All other regions performed in line with our expectations. BAT underperformed Philip Morris International, its largest rival, in both cigarette and heated tobacco volume, with a first-half decline of 3.5% in cigarettes and an increase of 17% in heated tobacco. Currency-neutral revenue growth was very similar, however, as BAT benefited from greater price/mix.
New categories revenue grew 27% in the first half, driven by vapour (up 58%) and the emerging modern oral category, which was up 284%, albeit from a small base. New categories now account for 4% of total revenue, although this is much less than the 18% reported by PMI in the first half of 2019. The tepid growth of 4% in heated tobacco is a concern, given the category’s presence in a growing number of markets.
Sound cost control and strong price/mix drove solid performance at the operating margin, which expanded around 100 basis points after adjusting for currency movements and a GBP 436 million charge related to the Quebec class action.
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Mucho me parece, ojala fuera asi, aunque a mi los fair value, sean de M* o el analista que sea, me suenan a “fairy value”, 
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Dia raro para Philip Morris
Estaba leyendo los comentarios de los usuarios. ¿Tú cómo lo ves?
Saludos.
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Curiosa reacción en USA. MO sube un 9%, PM baja un 6%.
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PM compraría a MO. Es lo lógico.
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A mi eso me da igual, en caso de fusión, compra, lo que me interesa es que se mantenga la política de dividendos de MO, no la de PM. Lo digo por los incrementos de dividendos, más altos en MO.
Veremos que pasa.
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Malditos, quieren ponerme una retencion del 15% en los dividendos de Philip Morris
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Quizá lo que hay que hacer es comprar más PM por si la fusión no se lleva a cabo.
Saludos.
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Pues ni idea, pero este tipo de grandes fusiones o adquisiciones lo que se viene demostrando es que por lo general no son nada buenas para los dividendos en el corto-medio plazo.
Otra historia es que con la importancia que dan las tabaqueras a su dividendo intenten buscar una fórmula para mantenerlo.
No se, yo con este tipo de macro operaciones soy cada día más escéptico. Los ejecutivos y los bancos de inversión si que podemos asegurar que se lo van a llevar crudo.
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https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190827005487/en/
Altria Group, Inc. Confirms Discussions With Philip Morris International, Inc. Regarding Potential All-Stock, Merger of Equals.
August 27, 2019 09:32 AM Eastern Daylight Time
RICHMOND, Va.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Altria Group, Inc. (Altria) (NYSE: MO) today announced that it is in discussions with Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM) regarding a potential all-stock, merger of equals. There can be no assurance that any agreement or transaction will result from these discussions. Additionally, there can be no assurance that if an agreement is reached, that a transaction will be completed. Any transaction would be subject to the approval of the two companies’ boards and shareholders, and regulators, as well as other conditions. Altria intends to make no further comment regarding the discussions unless and until it is appropriate to do so.
Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements
This release contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Important factors that may cause outcomes to differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements are included in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018 and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2019.
Altria cautions that it does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements that it may make except as required by applicable law. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to Altria or any person acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements referenced above.
Altria’s Profile
Altria’s wholly-owned subsidiaries include Philip Morris USA Inc. (PM USA), U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC (USSTC), John Middleton Co. (Middleton), Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries (Nat Sherman), Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd. (Ste. Michelle) and Philip Morris Capital Corporation (PMCC). Altria holds equity investments in Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI), JUUL Labs, Inc. (JUUL) and Cronos Group Inc. (Cronos).
Saludos.
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De momento sube Altria un 10% en la apertura
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No debería de influir en los dividendos, al ser una fusión exclusivamente en papeles, no habría deuda que pagar.
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Pues sí, esta sería la consecuencia práctica más inmediata. Mucho tendrían que crecer los mercados emergentes para que la suma fuera aún 80/20.
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Añado a 69,40, ganas me dan de ponerme corto a la vez en Altria
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- Philip Morris (PM -9.1%) would have an ownership stake of 52% in the new company if a merger with Altria (MO +6%) is finalized, sources tell Bloomberg.
- The deal is expected to go off without a premium to the share prices last Friday. The goal would be to close the transaction within six months.
- Wells Fargo, fresh off reading the tea leaves correctly yesterday, says it sees significant value creation for Altria and Philip Morris shareholders.
- Analyst Bonnie Herzog notes a merger would create the leading global nicotine company given the benefits of scale in light of the increasing importance of global integration in the current global “arms” race for reduced risk products and increased regulatory risks in the U.S. for vaping/nicotine levels. Cash flow benefits and geographic diversification are two other major positives.
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