Tencent Holdings (TCEHY)

Analyst Note 03/08/2021

Shares of Chinese online gaming companies were down substantially following an article published in the Economic Information Daily (state media) attacking gaming addiction among minors. The article was later retracted from its website. Based on the drastic share price movements, the market is clearly fearing a replay of the K-12 episode, but there are many reasons for us to think that recent declines in gaming share prices are not warranted. Given that at this stage no tangible policy changes have been proposed, we are keeping our fair value estimates of Tencent, NetEase, and CMGE unchanged. But even if the government was to ban underage gaming across the board, downsides in valuations are capped at about 5%, in our view.

The article, published by the state-run Economic Information Daily (affiliated with Xinhua news agency), said that many minors (under 18 years old) are addicted to online games, which negatively impacted their development. “No industry, no sport, can be allowed to develop in a way that will destroy a generation,” said the state media, who also described online games as “spiritual opium.”

Given all that we had was an article that got later retracted, we see limited chance of a follow-up in government actions to regulate the industry further. We estimate that spending by minors represents about 6% of Tencent’s grossing, a low-single-digit percentage of NetEase’s, and an even lower percentage for CMGE. This means even if the government was to implement a blanket ban on underage gaming, we would expect roughly mid-single-digit revenue impacts, and a roughly high-single-digit percentage of near-term earnings impact due to deleveraging at these three companies. For perspective, a mid-single-digit percentage of industry revenue equates to about half of the industry’s annual growth rate, a relatively small but permanent impairment to the valuations of these companies.

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Dejo el oficial:

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Amid Regulatory Crackdown on China Internet Firms, Tencent Is a Relatively Safe Place To Be; Buy

We think Tencent is a safer play among China Internet firms given its known restraint in monetization of data, more proactive social response initiatives, more compliant culture and strong fundamentals. We continue to think it is a buy. We maintain our forecasts and fair value estimates.

Management said that as it is not nearly as aggressive as its western peers or certain local peers in granularity and specificity of ad targeting relative to the user data that it has access to, it doesn’t appear to think the data regulation will have a large impact on its advertising business. Investors have criticized Tencent in the past for the limited data sharing between Weixin and other business units previously, but we think this could play in the company’s favor in the current environment. Management expects quite a few regulations to come; regulation overhang will remain until at least early next year, in our view.

Amid strong regulatory pressure, we appreciated management dedicating a session of its call discussing how Tencent helps society, such as reducing barriers for technology adoption and charging very low or even zero payment take rates for small and midsize enterprises. Despite Tencent’s increased social response initiatives, we think Tencent will keep its non-IFRS margin profile relatively stable in the long run and for revenue growth from SME to slow. As loss-making business and contribution back to the society wane on profit margin, we think management can pick up its pace in monetization of more mature businesses to offset the effect–video accounts are an example.

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No sabía que Tencent se había convertido en una ONG :rofl::rofl:

https://twitter.com/value_invest12/status/1428464574488055808?s=19

Señores, esto es una gran bandera roja para invertir en China si a partir de ahora han de empezar a pagar un “impuesto revolucionario” por sugerencia del Partido Comunista Chino.

Los inversores extranjeros que arriesguen su capital en VIEs de dudosa legitimidad para levantar esos empresones, que ya los beneficios se quedan en China.

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Bandera roja o quizás bandera verde, habría que saber si esto es cosa de 1 vez o recurrente. En caso de ser 1 vez me da absolutamente igual. En caso de ser recurrente, como dicen en los comentarios, puede considerarse como una subida de impuestos, o penalización anual para que los reguladores les dejen en paz, si este fuera el caso el impuesto tiene mi bendición.

Si es recurrente pero los reguladores siguen como ahora… :cold_face:

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Eligible Tencent shareholders will be entitled to one share of JD.com for every 21 shares they hold.

¿Y si tienes compradas las acciones ordinarias en Frankfurt o el ADR ?

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¿Alguna noticia a tu pregunta? Yo he estado buscando y no he acabado de sacar nada en claro.

Qualifying Shareholders and Non-Qualifying Shareholders

The Distribution in Specie will be available to the Shareholders whose names appear on the register of members of the Company on the Record Date, but will not be extended to NonQualifying Shareholders.

Shareholders with registered addresses outside Hong Kong Based on the register of members of the Company as at 21 December 2021, there were a total of 11 Shareholders whose addresses as shown on the register of members of the Company were outside Hong Kong, comprising five overseas jurisdictions, including Australia, the British Virgin Islands, the Mainland of China, Macau and the US, with a total shareholding of 2,769,353,842 Shares, representing in aggregate approximately 28.84% of the total number of issued Shares as at the close of business on 21 December 2021.

The Company had consulted legal counsels to ascertain whether or not there are any legal or regulatory requirements or restrictions which would make extending distribution of a special interim dividend by the Company in the form of a distribution in specie of the JD.com Shares held by the Group to the Shareholders whose addresses as shown on the register of members of the Company are located in the aforesaid overseas jurisdictions administratively prohibitive or inexpedient.

With respect to Australia, the British Virgin Islands, the Mainland of China and Macau, the Company has been advised that there are no such legal or regulatory restrictions requiring the exclusion of such Shareholder(s) from the Distribution in Specie. Having considered such advice provided by the legal counsels, the Directors are of the view that the Distribution in Specie will be extended to the Shareholders whose addressees as shown on the register of members of the Company are in Australia, the British Virgin Islands, the Mainland of China
and Macau on the Record Date.

6 With respect to the US, the Company has been advised that there are applicable legal or regulatory requirements or restrictions and the Directors consider that, as additional time and resources are required to establish the satisfaction of the relevant requirements or exemptions, it is expedient and beneficial to the Company and the Shareholders as a whole to exclude the Shareholders whose respective addressees as shown on the register of members of the Company are in the US on the Record Date from receiving the JD.com Shares and to regard such Shareholders as Non-Qualifying Shareholders.

Shareholders with registered addresses outside Hong Kong should consult their own professional advisers as to whether or not they are permitted to receive the special interim dividend in the form of the Distribution in Specie or if any governmental or other consent is required or other formalities which need to be observed and whether there are any other restrictions in relation to the future sale of any JD.com Shares so received. Notwithstanding the arrangements with regard to the Shareholders with registered addresses outside Hong Kong as described above, the Board reserves the ultimate right to exclude any Shareholder from the Distribution in Specie if it believes that the transfer of the JD.com Shares to such person(s) may violate any applicable legal and/or regulatory requirements in any jurisdiction.

Arrangements for Non-Qualifying Shareholders

Non-Qualifying Shareholders will not be entitled to receive the JD.com Shares and will instead receive cash in lieu of the JD.com Shares in respect of the Shares held by them on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on the Record Date.

Fractional entitlements to the JD.com Shares of the Non-Qualifying Shareholders (i.e., whose shareholding in the Company is not an integral multiple of 21 Shares) will also be distributed in the form of cash-in-lieu payment. The cash-in-lieu payments will be funded either by (i) disposing of the corresponding JD.com Shares in the market as soon as practicable, on or after the date of posting of the share certificates for the JD.com Shares (which is currently expected to be on or about 25 March 2022, Friday), and/or (ii) internal resources of the Group with the amount to be distributed to such Shareholders to be determined based on the closing price of the shares of JD.com on the Stock Exchange on the dispatch date of the share certificates for the JD.com Shares, at the Board’s discretion, and subject to applicable laws and regulations.

Such payment, after deduction of expenses and duties where applicable, will be distributed to the Non-Qualifying Shareholders in Hong Kong dollars on pro rata basis based on their respective entitlements and at their own risk, except that the net proceeds of less than HK$100 will not be distributed and will be retained for the benefit of the Company.

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Supongo que nos tocara dinerito

¿Lo apuntamos como divi extraordinario?

A precios actuales de JD.com me sale un 6% bruto aprox ¿es correcto?

No seria 2.75%?

[260 (JD) / 21] / 450 (TCEHY) = 0.0275

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¿Lo estoy entendiendo mal o lo que dice es que los accionistas que tengan las acciones en Hong Kong o en Frankfurt recibirán acciones de JD.com y los que tengan el ADR en USA recibirán dinero tras la venta de las acciones?

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Yo quiero entender eso también, pero no lo tengo del todo claro, casi prefería el cash :grinning:

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Yo preferiría las acciones si me las dan en Hong Kong. Total ya tengo unas cuantas en ese mercado.
Si no, mejor el cash.

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En el centro de notificaciones de IB no me ha llegado ningún mensaje al respecto. ¿Alguien ha recibido alguna notificación?

Habia hecho las cuentas con el ADR de JD sin tener en cuenta que equivale a 2 acciones

Mi gozo en un pozo

Yo las tengo en Hong Kong pero lo de la “direccion del accionista” entiendo que se referira a la del banco custodio y ClickTrade usara uno de USA seguramente (como todos los brokers nacionales)

Me sorprendería mucho que no lo cobrasemos en HKD.

En ClickTrade me han aparecido un puñado de acciones de JD todavia con un candadito junto a la opcion de “cerrar”

Parece que nos daran acciones

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