Sobre TXN:
If you think the market they dominate in analog chips is going to stay in neutral then avoid them for now. I think it’s about to grow much bigger myself but exactly when remains to be seen. That market is very different then your INTC holding or my QCOM and while it’s hard to explain some of the things why they are others are easier.
They dominate in it largely because of a quality product for example in the automotive markets for that type of chip, and they’re are many already in vehicles and that’s only going to grow much bigger going forward whether it’s an ICE or BEV one the standards might be only one in a million is allowed to be bad and that usually means TXN is your supplier. They’re not going into a few hundred dollar device or even a few grand one then your talking 30 thousand dollar and up consumer products so they need to be quality. In addition since they have a much longer shelf life as a chip product designers are very hesitant to switch to another over a smaller price because the product redesign to use another will far outweigh any chip savings cost.
Are you noticing all of the smart home products popping up now ? analog chips play a big role there also as eyes and ears you might say keeping track of things like sounds, temperatures, weights etc and reporting in constantly. The ways they can be used alone give them a much bigger customer base already then others and that base is growing fast with the IOT age rolling out now. It’s one thing to capture say the computer or WIFI router chip market in a home, quite another to look around inside there and see a future market in almost every other thing in it like fridges, ranges, faucets, doorbells on and on and many of them are already here and increasing that analog chip market and many more are on their way, ones we aren’t even aware of yet.
TXN has said next quarter will be flat to down but after that I think going forward we will see them become less cyclical in nature myself for several years in a row. No idea if they’re fairly priced or over valued which seems to be the general view which imho is a short time one only. So no advice from me about a SP except I do think say five years from now they will still have an impressive investment record behind them. There really isn’t many things those chips won’t be used in one day. As I mentioned before did you ever think you could talk to your kitchen faucet ? yet it’s here now anyways. It’s going to be an amazing decade imho, hope I get to stick around for all of it.
Vince